UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UCV MoqueguaDrawClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · UCV Moquegua 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UCV Moquegua are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UCV Moquegua 44%, draw 27%, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 29%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los ChankasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

UCV Moquegua win44%

Draw27%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas win29%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio 25 de Noviembre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UCV Moquegua

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

13Days since last match15

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 16 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ucv moquegua winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make UCV Moquegua a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas~~1.41 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 28 v 46~~16 v 7

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UCV Moquegua win	44%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Club Deportivo Los Chankas win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
UCV Moquegua or draw	71%	–	–
UCV Moquegua clean sheet	34%	–	–
Club Deportivo Los Chankas clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.4 8.9 4.9 1 11.4 12.5 6.8 2.5 2 8.0 8.7 4.8 3 3.8 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UCV Moquegua down, Club Deportivo Los Chankas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UCV Moquegua at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Club Deportivo Los Chankas away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for UCV Moquegua, 1.10 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CLU 1–0 UCV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug

UCV MOQUEGUA

LLLLLW1–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–0

CLUB DEPORTIVO LOS CHANKAS

LLLDDW3–4 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	Universitario	30	+18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cusco	30	+2	48
6	Cienciano	29	+9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	+9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	−11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15