UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UCV MoqueguaDrawAlianza Lima

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Alianza Lima 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alianza Lima are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UCV Moquegua 23%, draw 28%, Alianza Lima 49%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on UCV Moquegua v Alianza LimaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

UCV Moquegua win23%

Draw28%

Alianza Lima win49%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:15

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio 25 de Noviembre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UCV Moquegua

Alianza Lima

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alianza lima winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

49% The market60%

Us49%

~~Market~~60%

We make Alianza Lima a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima~~0.83 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 62~~16 v 1

~~The market · Alianza Lima win~~60% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alianza Lima win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UCV Moquegua win	23%	16%	+7
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Alianza Lima win	49%	60%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	38%	46%	−8
Both teams to score	42%	45%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	64%	70%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	18%	26%	−8
UCV Moquegua or draw	51%	40%	+11
UCV Moquegua clean sheet	26%	–	–
Alianza Lima clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.1%

0123450 11.4 15.1 10.4 4.8 1 9.2 12.4 8.4 3.9 2 3.9 5.2 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UCV Moquegua down, Alianza Lima across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UCV Moquegua at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Alianza Lima away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for UCV Moquegua, 1.37 for Alianza Lima. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ALI 2–1 UCV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

UCV MOQUEGUA

LLLLLW1–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–0

ALIANZA LIMA

LDLWWW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	Universitario	30	+18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cusco	30	+2	48
6	Cienciano	29	+9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	+9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	−11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15