Sporting Cristal v FC Cajamarca prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sporting CristalDrawFC Cajamarca

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sporting Cristal 74%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting Cristal are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Cristal 74%, draw 15%, FC Cajamarca 11%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Cristal v FC CajamarcaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Cristal win74%

Draw15%

FC Cajamarca win11%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Alberto Gallardo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Cristal

FC Cajamarca

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sporting Cristal	30	+9	44
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting cristal winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Sporting Cristal a 74% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Cristal v FC Cajamarca~~2.83 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 44 v 28~~8 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Cristal win	74%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
FC Cajamarca win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Sporting Cristal or draw	89%	–	–
Sporting Cristal clean sheet	36%	–	–
FC Cajamarca clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.3 2.2 1 6.2 6.2 3.2 2 8.5 8.6 4.4 3 7.9 8.0 4.0 4 5.6 5.6 2.9 5 3.2 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Cristal down, FC Cajamarca across0–5 goals a side shown (92.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Cristal at home: 3.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Cajamarca away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.83 goals for Sporting Cristal, 1.02 for FC Cajamarca. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FCC 3–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 28 Aug

SPORTING CRISTAL

WWWWWL5–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–3

FC CAJAMARCA

WLWLDL3–2 · 2–5 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	Universitario	30	+18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cusco	30	+2	48
6	Cienciano	29	+9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	+9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	−11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15