Sporting Cristal v Comerciantes Unidos prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Sporting Cristal 4–2 Comerciantes Unidos SPORTING CRISTAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Cristal win~~72%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.118

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.124

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Cristal win at 72%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sporting Cristal 72% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–17–11
1′KICK-OFF Sporting Cristal v Comerciantes Unidos
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Sporting Cristal win: 72% at kick-off, 62% now
35′We said Sporting Cristal at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sporting Cristal 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Sporting Cristal win: 72% at kick-off, 87% now
36′Luis Iberico scores for Sporting Cristal on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
37′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
40′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Comerciantes Unidos · On: Agustín Rodríguez · Off: Alexis Arias
45′SECOND HALF Sporting Cristal 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos
48′HALF-TIME Sporting Cristal 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Comerciantes Unidos · On: Josuee Herrera · Off: Yimy Gamero
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Cristiano · Sporting Cristal
55′We said Sporting Cristal at 72%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 1–1 · 50–37–13
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Sporting Cristal 1–1 Comerciantes Unidos
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Sporting Cristal win: 72% at kick-off, 50% now
56′We said Sporting Cristal at 72%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–38–13
58′56′: Josuee Herrera on the scoresheet for Comerciantes Unidos, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 48–40–12
63′We said Sporting Cristal at 72%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–44–12
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Sporting Cristal 2–1 Comerciantes Unidos
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Sporting Cristal win: 72% at kick-off, 88% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sporting Cristal · On: Martín Távara · Off: Michael Hoyos
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sporting Cristal · On: Hernán Barcos · Off: Agustín Álvarez
65′Sporting Cristal ahead on 64′ through Luis Iberico. 2–1. 2–1 · 88–10–1
70′We said Sporting Cristal at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Sporting Cristal 3–1 Comerciantes Unidos
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Sporting Cristal win: 72% at kick-off, 99% now
71′Hernán Barcos scores for Sporting Cristal on 71′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
72′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sporting Cristal · On: Luis Abram · Off: Maxloren Castro
78′We said Sporting Cristal at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Comerciantes Unidos · On: Thiago Alessandro Salinas Melgar · Off: Rodrigo Vilca Corrected
83′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 95–5–0
83′PENALTY · 82' Comerciantes Unidos
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Sporting Cristal 3–2 Comerciantes Unidos
85′84′: Matías Eric Sen on the scoresheet for Comerciantes Unidos, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 96–4–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Comerciantes Unidos · On: Óscar Pinto · Off: Jose Antonio·Parodi
89′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Sporting Cristal 4–2 Comerciantes Unidos
91′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+1' Sporting Cristal
92′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Comerciantes Unidos · On: Maximiliano Pérez · Off: Jean Olivares
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Sporting Cristal 4–2 Comerciantes Unidos
95′Sporting Cristal ahead on 90′ through Hernán Barcos. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
96′4–2 at the end. Our 72% on Sporting Cristal comes in. 4–2 · 100–0–0
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Sporting Cristal · On: Juan Gonzalez · Off: Luis Iberico
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Sporting Cristal · On: Gabriel · Off: Leandro Sosa
FTFULL TIME Sporting Cristal 4–2 Comerciantes Unidos
FTSporting Cristal 4–2 Comerciantes Unidos · Sporting Cristal win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting Cristal are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Cristal 72%, draw 17%, Comerciantes Unidos 11%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Cristal v Comerciantes UnidosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Cristal win72%

Draw17%

Comerciantes Unidos win11%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Alberto Gallardo

Line-ups

Sporting Cristal

4-2-3-1

Comerciantes Unidos

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Cristal

Comerciantes Unidos

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 10 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Sporting Cristal	28	+9	41
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	−3	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting Cristal

4-2-3-1

1 D. Enríquez

8 L. Sosa

20 M. Araujo

5 R. Lutiger

90 Cris Silva

6 A. Álvarez

19 Y. Yotún

7 S. González

16 L. Iberico

23 M. Castro

22 M. Hoyos

Coach · R. Mosquera

Substitutes

96 · L. Abram

29 · H. Barcos

33 · C. Bautista

11 · I. Ávila

21 · C. Cabellos

77 · J. Cuesta

18 · J. González

27 · Gabriel

25 · G. Távara

Comerciantes Unidos

4-4-1-1

17 Matías Cordova

32 J. Sánchez

40 F. Alcedo

6 J. Rodriguez

19 D. Lino

54 Y. Gamero

20 J. Parodi

4 A. Martín Arias

50 J. Olivares

25 Rodrigo Gary Vilca Betetta

9 M. Sen

Coach · J. Hernández

Substitutes

11 · J. Herrera

28 · O. Pinto

18 · A. Rodríguez

14 · Thiago Salinas

13 · M. Pérez

30 · P. Guzmán

15 · A. Cossio

99 · José Pablo Alejandro Charún Valdez

10 · M. Carpio

Our number · sporting cristal winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

72% The market71%

Us72%

~~Market~~71%

We make Sporting Cristal a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Cristal v Comerciantes Unidos~~2.47 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 21 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 41 v 31~~9 v 14

~~The market · Sporting Cristal win~~71% · ours 72%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting Cristal win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Cristal win	72%	71%	+1
Draw	17%	18%	−1
Comerciantes Unidos win	11%	11%	0
Over 2.5 goals	64%	61%	+3
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	81%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	42%	40%	+2
Sporting Cristal or draw	89%	89%	0
Sporting Cristal clean sheet	42%	–	–
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.8%

0123450 3.8 3.1 1 8.9 7.7 3.3 2 10.8 9.2 4.0 3 8.8 7.5 3.2 4 5.5 4.7 2.0 5 2.8 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Cristal down, Comerciantes Unidos across0–5 goals a side shown (95.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,820 Primera División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 256 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Cristal at home: 2.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Comerciantes Unidos away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.47 goals for Sporting Cristal, 0.86 for Comerciantes Unidos. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~COM 1–0 SPO · COM 1–4 SPO · SPO 2–0 COM · SPO 3–0 COM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 21 Aug

SPORTING CRISTAL

LLWWWW1–3 · 0–1 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

COMERCIANTES UNIDOS

WLDLLD3–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	29	+18	50
3	Universitario	28	+12	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
6	Cusco	29	0	45
7	Cienciano	28	+8	44
8	Alianza Atletico	28	+7	43
9	Sporting Cristal	28	+9	41
10	Sport Huancayo	29	−5	41
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	29	−7	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	−3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	−11	28
16	ADT	29	−14	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	−19	15