Sporting Cristal v Alianza Lima prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sporting CristalDrawAlianza Lima

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sporting Cristal 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting Cristal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Cristal 43%, draw 26%, Alianza Lima 31%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Cristal v Alianza LimaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Cristal win43%

Draw26%

Alianza Lima win31%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Alberto Gallardo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Cristal

Alianza Lima

4Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting cristal winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Sporting Cristal a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Cristal v Alianza Lima~~1.46 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 44 v 62~~8 v 1

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting Cristal win

Published at 44%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Cristal win	43%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Alianza Lima win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Sporting Cristal or draw	69%	–	–
Sporting Cristal clean sheet	31%	–	–
Alianza Lima clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.3 8.4 5.0 2.0 1 10.2 12.2 7.2 2.9 2 7.5 8.8 5.2 2.1 3 3.7 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Cristal down, Alianza Lima across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Cristal at home: 3.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Alianza Lima away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Sporting Cristal, 1.19 for Alianza Lima. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALI 1–1 SPO · ALI 3–3 SPO · SPO 1–1 ALI · ALI 0–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

SPORTING CRISTAL

WWWWWL5–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–3

ALIANZA LIMA

LDLWWW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15