Sport Huancayo v FBC Melgar prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sport HuancayoDrawFBC Melgar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sport Huancayo 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sport Huancayo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sport Huancayo 38%, draw 25%, FBC Melgar 37%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Sport Huancayo v FBC MelgarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sport Huancayo win38%

Draw25%

FBC Melgar win37%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Huancayo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sport Huancayo

FBC Melgar

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 23 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sport huancayo winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Sport Huancayo a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sport Huancayo v FBC Melgar~~1.45 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 44 v 53~~9 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sport Huancayo win	38%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
FBC Melgar win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Sport Huancayo or draw	63%	–	–
Sport Huancayo clean sheet	24%	–	–
FBC Melgar clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.9 8.0 5.8 2.8 1 8.2 11.6 8.2 3.9 2 5.9 8.3 5.9 2.8 3 2.9 4.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sport Huancayo down, FBC Melgar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sport Huancayo at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). FBC Melgar away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Sport Huancayo, 1.43 for FBC Melgar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FBC 4–1 SPO · FBC 2–0 SPO · SPO 2–2 FBC · SPO 2–4 FBC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept

SPORT HUANCAYO

WWWWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–1

FBC MELGAR

WWDDWW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	Universitario	30	+18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cusco	30	+2	48
6	Cienciano	29	+9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	+9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	−11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15