Sport Huancayo v Cusco prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Sport Huancayo 2–1 Cusco SPORT HUANCAYO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sport Huancayo win~~44%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.481

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.266

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sport Huancayo win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sport Huancayo was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
1′KICK-OFF Sport Huancayo v Cusco
7′We said Sport Huancayo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–22–57
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Sport Huancayo 0–1 Cusco
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Sport Huancayo win: 44% at kick-off, 21% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Cusco win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Sport Huancayo win 21%)
8′Cusco find the net on 8′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–22–57
14′We said Sport Huancayo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–58
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 16–23–61
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Ricardo Lagos · Cusco
34′Sport Huancayo have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–62
35′We said Sport Huancayo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Sport Huancayo win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' José Zevallos · Cusco
45′SECOND HALF Sport Huancayo 0–1 Cusco
48′Sport Huancayo have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–66
48′HALF-TIME Sport Huancayo 0–1 Cusco
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Omar Alberto Labrador Gutierrez · Sport Huancayo
52′We said Sport Huancayo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Cusco · On: Nicolás Silva · Off: Miguel Silveira
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Cusco · On: Lucas Colitto · Off: Jean Montano
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sport Huancayo · On: Ronal Huaccha · Off: Diego Carabaño
68′We said Sport Huancayo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–55–20
68′Nahuel Lujan scores for Sport Huancayo on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–55–20
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sport Huancayo 1–1 Cusco
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Sport Huancayo win: 44% at kick-off, 25% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Cusco win 20%)
73′Sport Huancayo have had 16 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 21–62–17
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Ricardo Salcedo · Sport Huancayo
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cusco · On: Gu Choi Guevara · Off: Carlos Diez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cusco · On: Juan Manuel Tévez · Off: Facundo Callejo
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cusco · On: Marlon Ruidías · Off: José Zevallos
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sport Huancayo · On: Juan David Martínez · Off: Daniel porozo
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sport Huancayo · On: Aldo Quinonez · Off: Ricardo Salcedo
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Aldo Quinonez · Sport Huancayo
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Sport Huancayo win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Nicolás Silva · Cusco
81′PENALTY MISSED · 80' Juan Manuel Tévez · Cusco
84′Sport Huancayo have had 20 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 9–83–8
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Diego Soto · Cusco
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sport Huancayo · On: E. Villar · Off: Piero Magallanes
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sport Huancayo · On: Juan Gimenez · Off: Nahuel Lujan
90′We published Sport Huancayo at 44%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Sport Huancayo 2–1 Cusco
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Sport Huancayo win: 44% at kick-off, 96% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Sport Huancayo win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
91′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 97–3–0
91′90′: Javier Sanguinetti on the scoresheet for Sport Huancayo, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
98′Full time, 2–1. We called Sport Huancayo at 44% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sport Huancayo 2–1 Cusco
FTSport Huancayo 2–1 Cusco · Sport Huancayo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sport Huancayo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sport Huancayo 44%, draw 24%, Cusco 32%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Sport Huancayo v CuscoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Sport Huancayo win44%

Draw24%

Cusco win32%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Huancayo

Line-ups

Sport Huancayo

4-2-3-1

Cusco

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sport Huancayo

Cusco

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 12 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cusco	28	+1	45
11	Sport Huancayo	28	−6	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sport Huancayo

4-2-3-1

12 Á. Zamudio

16 J. Falconí

26 M. Gaona

70 J. Valoyes

2 Omar Alberto Labrador Gutierrez

8 D. Carabaño

22 R. Salcedo

23 P. Magallanes

10 N. Luján

11 Javier Andrés Sanguinetti

97 D. Porozo

Coach · R. Pellejero

Substitutes

38 · E. Villar

17 · J. Giménez

29 · A. Ccorahua

4 · J. Barreda

19 · R. Huaccha

9 · J. Martínez

92 · Y. Murillo

91 · A. Quiñónez

28 · J. Rostaing

Cusco

4-1-4-1

28 P. Díaz

21 J. Zevallos

6 Á. Ampuero

2 C. Gamarra

3 R. Lagos

55 J. Montaño

14 C. Diez

88 D. Soto

10 I. Colman

99 Miguel Silveira

9 F. Callejo

Coach · Javier Rabanal

Substitutes

22 · L. Colitto

77 · J. Herrera

7 · J. Manzaneda

24 · M. Ruidías

26 · N. Silva

11 · J. Tévez

16 · O. Valenzuela

37 · G. Choi

13 · A. Vidal

Our number · sport huancayo winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 05:43 · locked at kick-off

44% The market58%

Us44%

~~Market~~58%

We make Sport Huancayo a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sport Huancayo v Cusco~~1.60 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 38 v 45~~11 v 5

~~The market · Sport Huancayo win~~58% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sport Huancayo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sport Huancayo win	44%	58%	−14
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Cusco win	32%	19%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Sport Huancayo or draw	68%	81%	−13
Sport Huancayo clean sheet	27%	–	–
Cusco clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.6 7.0 4.8 2.2 1 8.4 11.3 7.4 3.4 2 6.8 8.9 5.9 2.7 3 3.6 4.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sport Huancayo down, Cusco across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,816 Primera División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 252 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.78 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sport Huancayo at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cusco away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Sport Huancayo, 1.34 for Cusco. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~CUS 2–1 SPO · SPO 1–2 CUS · CUS 3–0 SPO · CUS 3–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug

SPORT HUANCAYO

LWWWWW0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0

CUSCO

LWWLWL1–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	28	+27	59
2	Universitario	28	+12	50
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	+14	48
4	FBC Melgar	28	+16	47
5	Cusco	28	+1	45
6	Cienciano	28	+8	44
7	Alianza Atletico	28	+7	43
8	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	−9	43
9	Sporting Cristal	28	+9	41
10	Sport Boys	28	+1	38
11	Sport Huancayo	28	−6	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	28	−10	35
13	Atletico Grau	28	−5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	−3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	−11	28
16	ADT	28	−13	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	−19	15