Sport Huancayo v Alianza Atletico prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:15

Sport Huancayo 4–1 Alianza Atletico SPORT HUANCAYO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sport Huancayo win~~47%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.417

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.193

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sport Huancayo win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sport Huancayo 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Sport Huancayo v Alianza Atletico
4′We said Sport Huancayo at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–11
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Sport Huancayo 1–0 Alianza Atletico
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Sport Huancayo win: 47% at kick-off, 73% now
6′Sport Huancayo find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–11
6′We said Sport Huancayo at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–0 · 89–7–3
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Sport Huancayo 2–0 Alianza Atletico
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Sport Huancayo win: 47% at kick-off, 89% now
7′We said Sport Huancayo at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
7′Nahuel Lujan scores for Sport Huancayo on 7′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
29′We said Sport Huancayo at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–0
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Sport Huancayo 3–0 Alianza Atletico
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Sport Huancayo win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 98–1–0
31′30′: Daniel porozo on the scoresheet for Sport Huancayo, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
37′We said Sport Huancayo at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
37′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Sport Huancayo 4–0 Alianza Atletico
38′Sport Huancayo ahead on 37′ through Diego Carabaño. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
42′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Omar Alberto Labrador Gutierrez · Sport Huancayo
42′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Diego Carabaño · Sport Huancayo
45′HALF-TIME Sport Huancayo 4–0 Alianza Atletico
45′SECOND HALF Sport Huancayo 4–0 Alianza Atletico
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alianza Atletico · On: Jimmy Perez · Off: Jose Lujan
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alianza Atletico · On: Juan Delgado · Off: Hernan Lupu
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alianza Atletico · On: José María Ingratti · Off: Jairo Molina
51′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 99–1–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Sport Huancayo 4–1 Alianza Atletico
52′Cristian Penilla scores for Alianza Atletico on 51′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Alianza Atletico · On: Erick Perleche · Off: Stefano Fernández
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sport Huancayo · On: Ronal Huaccha · Off: Daniel porozo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sport Huancayo · On: Rick Campodonico · Off: Diego Carabaño
65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Erick Perleche · Alianza Atletico
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sport Huancayo · On: Aldo Quinonez · Off: Ricardo Salcedo
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sport Huancayo · On: E. Villar · Off: Nahuel Lujan
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Alianza Atletico · On: Jorge del Castillo · Off: Guillermo Larios
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sport Huancayo · On: Juan Gimenez · Off: Javier Sanguinetti
90′90′: Omar Alberto Labrador Gutierrez on the scoresheet for Sport Huancayo. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sport Huancayo 4–1 Alianza Atletico
FTSport Huancayo 4–1 Alianza Atletico · Sport Huancayo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sport Huancayo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sport Huancayo 47%, draw 25%, Alianza Atletico 28%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sport Huancayo v Alianza AtleticoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sport Huancayo win47%

Draw25%

Alianza Atletico win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:45

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Huancayo

Line-ups

Sport Huancayo

4-2-3-1

Alianza Atletico

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sport Huancayo

Alianza Atletico

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Alianza Atletico	29	+4	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	−5	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sport Huancayo

4-2-3-1

12 Á. Zamudio

16 J. Falconí

26 M. Gaona

70 J. Valoyes

2 Omar Alberto Labrador Gutierrez

8 D. Carabaño

22 R. Salcedo

23 P. Magallanes

10 N. Luján

11 Javier Andrés Sanguinetti

97 D. Porozo

Coach · R. Pellejero

Substitutes

7 · R. Campodónico

29 · A. Ccorahua

17 · J. Giménez

19 · R. Huaccha

9 · J. Martínez

92 · Y. Murillo

91 · A. Quiñónez

28 · J. Rostaing

38 · E. Villar

Alianza Atletico

4-3-3

31 S. Rivadeneyra

16 S. Fernández

2 R. Suarez

6 J. Luján

25 W. Guzmán

15 H. Lupú

10 Germán Díaz

19 J. Mendieta

11 G. Larios

29 J. Molina

17 C. Penilla

Coach · F. Urciuoli

Substitutes

40 · J. Quiñónes

20 · Jimmy Pérez

95 · D. Prieto

21 · E. Perleche

27 · J. Ingratti

24 · A. Gordillo

8 · F. Flores

37 · J. Delgado

22 · J. del Castillo

Our number · sport huancayo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

47% The market64%

Us47%

~~Market~~64%

We make Sport Huancayo a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sport Huancayo v Alianza Atletico~~1.57 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 41 v 43~~10 v 9

~~The market · Sport Huancayo win~~64% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sport Huancayo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sport Huancayo win	47%	64%	−17
Draw	25%	21%	+4
Alianza Atletico win	28%	15%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	51%	60%	−9
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	81%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	29%	40%	−11
Sport Huancayo or draw	72%	85%	−13
Sport Huancayo clean sheet	32%	–	–
Alianza Atletico clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.9 7.6 4.3 1 10.4 11.8 6.7 2.6 2 8.2 9.2 5.2 2.0 3 4.3 4.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sport Huancayo down, Alianza Atletico across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,827 Primera División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 263 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sport Huancayo at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Alianza Atletico away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Sport Huancayo, 1.14 for Alianza Atletico. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALI 4–1 SPO · ALI 0–0 SPO · SPO 2–1 ALI · ALI 1–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

SPORT HUANCAYO

WWWWWW3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

ALIANZA ATLETICO

WWLWWL4–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–4

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44
9	Alianza Atletico	29	+4	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	−5	41
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	29	−7	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	29	−14	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15