Sport Boys v FC Cajamarca prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sport BoysDrawFC Cajamarca

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sport Boys 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sport Boys are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sport Boys 51%, draw 24%, FC Cajamarca 24%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sport Boys v FC CajamarcaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sport Boys win51%

Draw24%

FC Cajamarca win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:30

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueMiguel Grau Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sport Boys

FC Cajamarca

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sport boys winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 03:58 · locked at kick-off

51% The market63%

Us51%

~~Market~~63%

We make Sport Boys a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sport Boys v FC Cajamarca~~1.67 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 38 v 28~~11 v 15

~~The market · Sport Boys win~~63% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sport Boys win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sport Boys win	51%	63%	−12
Draw	24%	22%	+2
FC Cajamarca win	24%	15%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	52%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
Sport Boys or draw	76%	85%	−9
Sport Boys clean sheet	35%	–	–
FC Cajamarca clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.8 7.0 3.7 1 10.9 11.5 6.0 2.2 2 9.0 9.4 5.0 3 5.0 5.3 2.8 4 2.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sport Boys down, FC Cajamarca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,827 Primera División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 263 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sport Boys at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Cajamarca away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Sport Boys, 1.06 for FC Cajamarca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FCC 3–2 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 28 Aug

SPORT BOYS

WLWDLL1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

FC CAJAMARCA

WLWLDL3–2 · 2–5 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44
9	Alianza Atletico	29	+4	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	−5	41
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	29	−7	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	29	−14	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15