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Sport Boys v Alianza Atletico

Sport Boys

1–3Full time

Alianza Atletico

Primera División · SUN 11 OCT · Miguel Grau Stadium

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:00

Sport Boys 1–3 Alianza Atletico SPORT BOYS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sport Boys win~~41%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.749

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.872

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 52 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sport Boys win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sport Boys 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–29–30
21′Sport Boys ahead on 16′ through Percy Liza. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–9
28′Sport Boys ahead on 16′ through Percy Liza. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–8
30′Sport Boys ahead on 16′ through Percy Liza. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Oslimg Mora · Sport Boys
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Stefano Fernández · Alianza Atletico
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Carlos Zambrano · Sport Boys
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Sport Boys 1–1 Alianza Atletico · Percy Liza
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Sport Boys 1–1 Alianza Atletico · Jorge del Castillo
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sport Boys · On: Miguel Trauco · Off: Yuriel Celi
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Sport Boys 1–2 Alianza Atletico · Jorge del Castillo
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sport Boys 1–2 Alianza Atletico · Jorge del Castillo
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
69′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Carlos Alberto Desio · Sport Boys
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Percy Liza · Sport Boys
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Alianza Atletico · On: Guillermo Larios · Off: Jorge del Castillo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Alianza Atletico · On: Erick Perleche · Off: Stefano Fernández
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sport Boys · On: Rolando Diaz · Off: Percy Liza Corrected
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Sport Boys win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Alianza Atletico · On: Juan Jesus Quinones · Off: Cristian Penilla
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Erick Perleche · Alianza Atletico
89′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Alianza Atletico · On: Jesus Mendieta · Off: Ariel Muñoz
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Sport Boys 1–3 Alianza Atletico · Jorge del Castillo
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Sport Boys 1–3 Alianza Atletico · Guillermo Larios
FTFULL TIME Sport Boys 1–3 Alianza Atletico
FTSport Boys 1–3 Alianza Atletico · Sport Boys win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sport Boys win41%

Draw29%

Alianza Atletico win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:30

VenueMiguel Grau Stadium

Line-ups

Sport Boys

4-2-3-1

Alianza Atletico

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sport Boys

Alianza Atletico

21Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Alianza Atletico	27	+5	40
10	Sport Boys	27	+3	38

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sport Boys

4-2-3-1

22 D. Melián

17 E. Saba

3 C. Zambrano

26 H. Riojas

13 M. Llontop

24 O. Mora

10 J. Alarcón

11 L. Urruti

77 Y. Celi

99 C. Cueva

30 P. Liza

Coach · C. Desio

Substitutes

14 · R. Díaz

4 · R. Alfani

5 · F. Illanes

29 · N. Loyola

61 · J. Nolasco

36 · Nicolas Paz

47 · M. Trauco

2 · Luciano Francesco Zambrano Aliaga

37 · Adrián Jesús Santana Valenzuela

Alianza Atletico

4-1-4-1

95 D. Prieto

16 S. Fernández

25 W. Guzmán

6 J. Luján

24 A. Gordillo

15 H. Lupú

23 A. Muñoz

10 Germán Díaz

22 J. del Castillo

17 C. Penilla

27 J. Ingratti

Coach · F. Urciuoli

Substitutes

29 · J. Molina

21 · E. Perleche

20 · Jimmy Pérez

40 · J. Quiñónes

9 · V. Robaldo

28 · J. Rossi

19 · J. Mendieta

11 · G. Larios

8 · F. Flores

Our number · sport boys winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

41% The market48%

Us41%

~~Market~~48%

We make Sport Boys a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sport Boys win	41%	48%	−7
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Alianza Atletico win	30%	25%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	37%	49%	−12
Both teams to score	44%	53%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	64%	72%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	18%	29%	−11
Sport Boys or draw	70%	75%	−5
Sport Boys clean sheet	38%	–	–
Alianza Atletico clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 11.6 10.8 5.4 1 13.3 13.2 6.4 2.1 2 8.2 7.9 3.9 3 3.3 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sport Boys down, Alianza Atletico across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,812 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 248 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sport Boys at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Alianza Atletico away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Sport Boys, 0.98 for Alianza Atletico. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALI 0–1 SPO · SPO 0–1 ALI · ALI 1–0 SPO · ALI 2–0 SPO

Form · last six in Primera División

SPORT BOYS

DWWLWD1–1 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

ALIANZA ATLETICO

DWWWLW1–1 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	27	+26	56
2	Universitario	27	+12	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	+14	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	+16	46
5	Cusco	27	+2	45
6	Cienciano	28	+8	44
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	−9	43
8	Alianza Atletico	27	+5	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	+8	38
10	Sport Boys	27	+3	38
11	Sport Huancayo	28	−6	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	28	−10	35
13	Atletico Grau	28	−5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	−3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	−11	28
16	ADT	28	−13	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	−18	20