Juan Pablo II College v Sport Boys prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00

Juan Pablo II College 2–0 Sport Boys JUAN PABLO II COLLEGE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Juan Pablo II College win~~48%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.403

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.586

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Juan Pablo II College win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Juan Pablo II College v Sport Boys
2′Much as we predicted: Juan Pablo II College was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
41′9 shots for Juan Pablo II College, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 39–38–23
41′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Nilton Ramirez · Juan Pablo II College
41′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Percy Liza · Sport Boys
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Juan Pablo II College win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Gustavo Dulanto · Sport Boys
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Jostin Alarcon · Sport Boys
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Mathias Llontop · Sport Boys
45′SECOND HALF Juan Pablo II College 1–0 Sport Boys
46′We published Juan Pablo II College at 48%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
46′Erinson Ramirez scores for Juan Pablo II College on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Juan Pablo II College 1–0 Sport Boys
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Juan Pablo II College win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
49′HALF-TIME Juan Pablo II College 1–0 Sport Boys
55′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Sport Boys · On: Rolando Diaz · Off: Percy Liza
56′We published Juan Pablo II College at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Juan Pablo II College · On: Jack·Duran · Off: Nilton Ramirez
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sport Boys · On: Miguel Trauco · Off: Luis Urruti
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Janio Pósito · Juan Pablo II College
70′We published Juan Pablo II College at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Juan Pablo II College · On: Mateo Rodríguez · Off: Janio Pósito
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Juan Pablo II College · On: Héctor Bazán · Off: Erinson Ramirez
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Juan Pablo II College win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
79′We published Juan Pablo II College at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Juan Pablo II College · On: Christian Flores · Off: Juan Pablo Goicochea
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sport Boys · On: Federico Illanes · Off: Jostin Alarcon
86′We published Juan Pablo II College at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′We published Juan Pablo II College at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Juan Pablo II College 2–0 Sport Boys
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Juan Pablo II College win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
92′90′: Álvaro Rojas on the scoresheet for Juan Pablo II College, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
94′Full time, 2–0. We called Juan Pablo II College at 48% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Juan Pablo II College 2–0 Sport Boys
FTJuan Pablo II College 2–0 Sport Boys · Juan Pablo II College win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Juan Pablo II College are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Juan Pablo II College 48%, draw 26%, Sport Boys 26%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Juan Pablo II College v Sport BoysBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Juan Pablo II College win48%

Draw26%

Sport Boys win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Complejo Juan Pablo II

Line-ups

Juan Pablo II College

4-3-3

Sport Boys

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Juan Pablo II College

Sport Boys

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sport Boys	28	+1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	28	−10	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Juan Pablo II College

4-3-3

23 M. Vega

2 H. Ancajima

31 J. Toledo

60 P. Míguez

19 P. Reyna

15 N. Ramírez

3 A. Sánchez

37 Á. Rojas

18 E. Ramírez

89 J. Pósito

79 J. Goicochea

Coach · J. Araujo

Substitutes

71 · C. Villanueva

14 · J. Carhuallanqui

20 · H. Bazán

80 · Eren Melih Doğan

28 · J. Durán

8 · C. Flores

7 · A. Hendricks

12 · I. Quispe

97 · M. Rodríguez

Sport Boys

4-2-3-1

22 D. Melián

17 E. Saba

3 C. Zambrano

55 G. Dulanto

13 M. Llontop

24 O. Mora

10 J. Alarcón

30 P. Liza

77 Y. Celi

11 L. Urruti

32 P. Erustes

Coach · C. Desio

Substitutes

14 · R. Díaz

5 · F. Illanes

29 · N. Loyola

61 · J. Nolasco

36 · Nicolas Paz

37 · Adrián Jesús Santana Valenzuela

47 · M. Trauco

4 · R. Alfani

2 · Luciano Francesco Zambrano Aliaga

Our number · juan pablo ii college winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

48% The market38%

Us48%

~~Market~~38%

We make Juan Pablo II College a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Juan Pablo II College v Sport Boys~~1.52 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 35 v 38~~12 v 11

~~The market · Juan Pablo II College win~~38% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Juan Pablo II College win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juan Pablo II College win	48%	38%	+10
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Sport Boys win	26%	34%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Juan Pablo II College or draw	74%	66%	+8
Juan Pablo II College clean sheet	36%	–	–
Sport Boys clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.1 8.0 4.2 1 11.7 12.2 6.3 2.2 2 8.9 9.1 4.7 3 4.5 4.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juan Pablo II College down, Sport Boys across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,818 Primera División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 254 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Juan Pablo II College at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sport Boys away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Juan Pablo II College, 1.04 for Sport Boys. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 20:45. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–1 JUA · JUA 3–0 SPO · SPO 1–0 JUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug

JUAN PABLO II COLLEGE

WWDWWD5–1 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–1

SPORT BOYS

WWLWDL5–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	28	+27	59
2	Universitario	28	+12	50
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	+14	48
4	FBC Melgar	28	+16	47
5	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
6	Cusco	29	0	45
7	Cienciano	28	+8	44
8	Alianza Atletico	28	+7	43
9	Sporting Cristal	28	+9	41
10	Sport Huancayo	29	−5	41
11	Sport Boys	28	+1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	28	−10	35
13	Atletico Grau	28	−5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	−3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	−11	28
16	ADT	29	−14	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	−19	15