FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FBC MelgarDrawComerciantes Unidos

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FBC Melgar 70%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FBC Melgar are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FBC Melgar 70%, draw 18%, Comerciantes Unidos 12%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on FBC Melgar v Comerciantes UnidosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FBC Melgar win70%

Draw18%

Comerciantes Unidos win12%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FBC Melgar

Comerciantes Unidos

5Days since last match10

Last match: 23 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fbc melgar winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make FBC Melgar a 70% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos~~2.26 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 53 v 31~~3 v 14

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FBC Melgar win	70%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Comerciantes Unidos win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
FBC Melgar or draw	88%	–	–
FBC Melgar clean sheet	45%	–	–
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.9%

0123450 5.0 3.8 1 10.7 8.5 3.4 2 11.9 9.4 3.7 3 8.9 7.0 2.8 4 5.1 4.0 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+FBC Melgar down, Comerciantes Unidos across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FBC Melgar at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Comerciantes Unidos away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for FBC Melgar, 0.79 for Comerciantes Unidos. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~COM 1–1 FBC · COM 1–1 FBC · FBC 1–1 COM · FBC 3–0 COM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 28 Aug

FBC MELGAR

WWDDWW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 2–1

COMERCIANTES UNIDOS

LDLLDL2–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–4

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	Universitario	30	+18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cusco	30	+2	48
6	Cienciano	29	+9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	+9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	−11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15