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Deportivo Garcilaso v Sport Huancayo

Deportivo Garcilaso

0–1Full time

Sport Huancayo

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 04:30

Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Sport Huancayo DEPORTIVO GARCILASO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Garcilaso win~~59%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.062

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.727

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Garcilaso win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Garcilaso was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Garcilaso v Sport Huancayo
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Ricardo Salcedo · Sport Huancayo
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Sport Huancayo
31′⚽ GOAL · 32' Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Sport Huancayo · Daniel porozo
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Agustin Gonzalez · Deportivo Garcilaso
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Marcelo·Gaona · Sport Huancayo
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Sport Huancayo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sport Huancayo · On: Aldo Quinonez · Off: Ricardo Salcedo
47′HALF-TIME Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Sport Huancayo
54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Sport Huancayo · On: Piero Magallanes · Off: Rick Campodonico
54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Sport Huancayo · On: Juan Barreda · Off: Jeremy Martin Rostaing
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Facundo Castelli · Deportivo Garcilaso
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sport Huancayo · On: Ronal Huaccha · Off: Daniel porozo
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Deportivo Garcilaso · On: Fernando Pacheco · Off: Facundo Castelli
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Deportivo Garcilaso · On: Christopher Olivares · Off: Agustin Gonzalez
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Deportivo Garcilaso · On: Adrian Ascues · Off: Beto Da Silva
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 Sport Huancayo · Daniel porozo
66′⚽ GOAL · 67' Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 Sport Huancayo · Christopher Olivares
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sport Huancayo · On: E. Villar · Off: Diego Carabaño
78′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Aldo Quinonez · Sport Huancayo
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Ronal Huaccha · Sport Huancayo
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Christopher Olivares · Deportivo Garcilaso
90′PENALTY MISSED · 90' Pablo Labrin · Deportivo Garcilaso
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Deportivo Garcilaso · On: L. Ríos · Off: Agustin Gomez
91′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Rick Campodonico · Sport Huancayo
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Sport Huancayo
FTDeportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Sport Huancayo · Deportivo Garcilaso win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Deportivo Garcilaso win59%

Draw23%

Sport Huancayo win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 02:00

Venue · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Referee · Jesus Cartagena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Deportivo Garcilaso

4-1-4-1

1 P. Zubczuk

55 E. Canales

2 A. Salazar

19 A. Gómez

23 X. Moreno

8 A. González

9 F. Castelli

10 P. Labrin

30 L. da Silva

18 C. Ramos

11 F. Arancibia

Coach · Lisandro Greppo

Substitutes

27 · A. Ascues

20 · A. Rosell

7 · L. Ríos

14 · C. Torrejón

22 · J. Portales

88 · F. Pacheco

24 · C. Olivares

31 · J. Barbieri

17 · S. Ramírez

Sport Huancayo

4-4-2

12 Á. Zamudio

16 J. Falconí

26 M. Gaona

70 J. Valoyes

28 J. Rostaing

7 R. Campodónico

8 D. Carabaño

22 R. Salcedo

11 Javier Andrés Sanguinetti

97 D. Porozo

10 N. Luján

Coach · R. Pellejero

Substitutes

29 · A. Ccorahua

17 · J. Giménez

19 · R. Huaccha

23 · P. Magallanes

9 · J. Martínez

92 · Y. Murillo

91 · A. Quiñónez

4 · J. Barreda

38 · E. Villar

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Garcilaso

4-1-4-1

1 P. Zubczuk

55 E. Canales

2 A. Salazar

19 A. Gómez

23 X. Moreno

8 A. González

9 F. Castelli

10 P. Labrin

30 L. da Silva

18 C. Ramos

11 F. Arancibia

Coach · Lisandro Greppo

Substitutes

27 · A. Ascues

20 · A. Rosell

7 · L. Ríos

14 · C. Torrejón

22 · J. Portales

88 · F. Pacheco

24 · C. Olivares

31 · J. Barbieri

17 · S. Ramírez

Sport Huancayo

4-4-2

12 Á. Zamudio

16 J. Falconí

26 M. Gaona

70 J. Valoyes

28 J. Rostaing

7 R. Campodónico

8 D. Carabaño

22 R. Salcedo

11 Javier Andrés Sanguinetti

97 D. Porozo

10 N. Luján

Coach · R. Pellejero

Substitutes

29 · A. Ccorahua

17 · J. Giménez

19 · R. Huaccha

23 · P. Magallanes

9 · J. Martínez

92 · Y. Murillo

91 · A. Quiñónez

4 · J. Barreda

38 · E. Villar

Our number · deportivo garcilaso winPublished 10 Oct 02:00

59% The market40%

Us59%

~~Market~~40%

We make Deportivo Garcilaso a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo garcilaso win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Garcilaso win	59%	40%	+19
Draw	23%	29%	−7
Sport Huancayo win	19%	31%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	52%	49%	+4
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw	81%	69%	+12
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet	40%	–	–
Sport Huancayo clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 6.5 5.7 2.7 1 11.5 10.7 4.9 2 10.6 9.6 4.5 3 6.5 6.0 2.8 4 3.1 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Garcilaso down, Sport Huancayo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,809 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 245 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.86 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Garcilaso at home: 3.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sport Huancayo away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso, 0.93 for Sport Huancayo. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 01:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SPO 2–1 DEP · DEP 1–1 SPO · SPO 0–3 DEP · SPO 1–0 DEP

Form · last six in Primera División

DEPORTIVO GARCILASO

DWWWLW0–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 4–0

SPORT HUANCAYO

LLWWWW1–4 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	27	+26	56
2	Universitario	27	+12	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	+15	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	+16	46
5	Cusco	27	+2	45
6	Cienciano	28	+8	44
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	−9	43
8	Alianza Atletico	27	+5	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	+8	38
10	Sport Boys	27	+3	38
11	Sport Huancayo	27	−7	35
12	Juan Pablo II College	27	−10	34
13	Atletico Grau	28	−5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	−3	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	−11	27
16	ADT	27	−13	25
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	−18	20