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Deportivo Garcilaso v Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Deportivo Garcilaso

23:00Upcoming

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Primera División · SUN 25 OCT · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportivo GarcilasoDrawClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Garcilaso 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Garcilaso are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Garcilaso 60%, draw 22%, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 18%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Garcilaso v Club Deportivo Los ChankasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Garcilaso win60%

Draw22%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Garcilaso

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

8Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 16 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo garcilaso winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

60% The market64%

Us60%

~~Market~~64%

We make Deportivo Garcilaso a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Garcilaso v Club Deportivo Los Chankas~~1.85 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 48 v 46~~4 v 6

~~The market · Deportivo Garcilaso win~~64% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Garcilaso win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Garcilaso win	60%	64%	−4
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Club Deportivo Los Chankas win	18%	15%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw	82%	85%	−3
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet	42%	–	–
Club Deportivo Los Chankas clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 6.8 5.8 2.6 1 12.1 10.6 4.6 2 11.1 9.6 4.2 3 6.8 5.9 2.6 4 3.2 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Garcilaso down, Club Deportivo Los Chankas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Garcilaso at home: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Club Deportivo Los Chankas away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso, 0.87 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CLU 0–1 DEP · DEP 3–0 CLU · CLU 2–2 DEP · CLU 1–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug

DEPORTIVO GARCILASO

WWLWLL1–0 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 2–4

CLUB DEPORTIVO LOS CHANKAS

LLLDDW3–4 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15