Cusco v Sporting Cristal prediction · Primera División

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cusco are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cusco 45%, draw 23%, Sporting Cristal 32%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Cusco v Sporting CristalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Cusco win45%

Draw23%

Sporting Cristal win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:15

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

RefereeAugusto Alfredo Menendez Laos

Line-ups

Cusco

4-1-4-1

Sporting Cristal

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cusco

Sporting Cristal

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cusco

4-1-4-1

28 P. Díaz

21 J. Zevallos

8 A. Fuentes

2 C. Gamarra

3 R. Lagos

55 J. Montaño

22 L. Colitto

88 D. Soto

10 I. Colman

7 J. Manzaneda

9 F. Callejo

Coach · Javier Rabanal

Substitutes

6 · Á. Ampuero

14 · C. Diez

77 · J. Herrera

24 · M. Ruidías

26 · N. Silva

99 · Miguel Silveira

11 · J. Tévez

16 · O. Valenzuela

13 · A. Vidal

Sporting Cristal

4-2-3-1

1 D. Enríquez

8 L. Sosa

20 M. Araujo

5 R. Lutiger

90 Cris Silva

6 A. Álvarez

19 Y. Yotún

7 S. González

16 L. Iberico

23 M. Castro

22 M. Hoyos

Coach · R. Mosquera

Substitutes

25 · G. Távara

27 · Gabriel

32 · L. Díaz

77 · J. Cuesta

21 · C. Cabellos

33 · C. Bautista

29 · H. Barcos

96 · L. Abram

11 · I. Ávila

Our number · cusco winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market48%

Us45%

~~Market~~48%

We make Cusco a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cusco v Sporting Cristal~~1.72 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 45 v 44~~7 v 8

~~The market · Cusco win~~48% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cusco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cusco win	45%	48%	−3
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Sporting Cristal win	32%	26%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	60%	56%	+4
Both teams to score	62%	58%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	77%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	38%	35%	+3
Cusco or draw	68%	74%	−6
Cusco clean sheet	25%	–	–
Sporting Cristal clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.6 6.2 4.4 2.1 1 7.5 10.6 7.4 3.5 2 6.5 8.9 6.3 3.0 3 3.7 5.1 3.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cusco down, Sporting Cristal across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,827 Primera División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 263 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cusco at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Cristal away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Cusco, 1.41 for Sporting Cristal. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 20:46. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPO 2–2 CUS · CUS 2–0 SPO · SPO 1–0 CUS · CUS 3–2 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

CUSCO

WWLWLL2–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

SPORTING CRISTAL

LWWWWW0–1 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–2

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44
9	Alianza Atletico	29	+4	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	−5	41
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	29	−7	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	29	−14	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15