Cusco v Sport Boys prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CuscoDrawSport Boys

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cusco 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cusco are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cusco 61%, draw 22%, Sport Boys 16%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Cusco v Sport BoysBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Cusco win61%

Draw22%

Sport Boys win16%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cusco

Sport Boys

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cusco	30	+2	48
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cusco winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Cusco a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cusco v Sport Boys~~1.84 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 48 v 38~~5 v 11

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cusco win	61%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Sport Boys win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Cusco or draw	84%	–	–
Cusco clean sheet	44%	–	–
Sport Boys clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 7.2 5.8 2.4 1 12.8 10.5 4.3 2 11.7 9.5 3.9 3 7.2 5.8 2.4 4 3.4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cusco down, Sport Boys across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.22 goals a meeting; 8 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cusco at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sport Boys away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Cusco, 0.82 for Sport Boys. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.22

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–0 CUS · CUS 3–0 SPO · SPO 1–2 CUS · CUS 3–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

CUSCO

WLWLLW2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1

SPORT BOYS

WLWDLL1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	Universitario	30	+18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cusco	30	+2	48
6	Cienciano	29	+9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	+9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	−11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15