Cusco v Alianza Lima prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 03:00

Cusco 1–2 Alianza Lima CUSCO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cusco win~~38%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.649

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.753

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cusco win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cusco 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
23′We said Cusco at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–22–65
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
29′24′ and it is 0–0: Alianza Lima have scored. 0–0 · 34–35–31
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
30′24′ and it is 0–0: Alianza Lima have scored. 0–0 · 33–35–31
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Cusco win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Alianza Lima win 30%)
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Cusco 0–1 Alianza Lima
45′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Aldair Fuentes · Cusco
45′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Jairo Vélez · Alianza Lima
45′SECOND HALF Cusco 0–1 Alianza Lima
49′🟥 RED CARD · 49' Alianza Lima
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Jairo Vélez · Alianza Lima
50′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Aldair Fuentes · Cusco
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Cusco 1–1 Alianza Lima · Mateo Antoni Pavon
55′⚽ GOAL · 56' Cusco 1–1 Alianza Lima · Diego Soto
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Alianza Lima · On: Jesús Castillo · Off: Gianfranco Chavez Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Alianza Lima · On: Federico Girotti · Off: Kevin Quevedo Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cusco · On: Lucas Colitto · Off: José Zevallos Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cusco · On: Miguel Silveira · Off: Ivan Colman Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Alianza Lima · On: Cristian Neira · Off: Fernando Gaibor Corrected
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Cusco 1–2 Alianza Lima · Diego Soto
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Cusco 1–2 Alianza Lima · Alvaro Ampuero
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Alianza Lima · On: Cristian Carbajal · Off: Erick Castillo Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Alianza Lima · On: Nicolás Díaz · Off: Jairo Vélez Corrected
FTFULL TIME Cusco 1–2 Alianza Lima
FTCusco 1–2 Alianza Lima · Cusco win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 07:15

Cusco win38%

Draw28%

Alianza Lima win34%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:30

VenueEstadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

RefereeJoel Alarcon

Line-ups

Cusco

4-1-4-1

Alianza Lima

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cusco

Alianza Lima

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	27	+26	56
5	Cusco	27	+2	45

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cusco

4-1-4-1

28 P. Díaz

21 J. Zevallos

8 A. Fuentes

2 C. Gamarra

3 R. Lagos

55 J. Montaño

26 N. Silva

14 C. Diez

10 I. Colman

7 J. Manzaneda

9 F. Callejo

Coach · Javier Rabanal

Substitutes

16 · O. Valenzuela

22 · L. Colitto

6 · Á. Ampuero

77 · J. Herrera

24 · M. Ruidías

99 · Miguel Silveira

88 · D. Soto

11 · J. Tévez

13 · A. Vidal

Alianza Lima

4-4-2

1 A. Duarte

17 L. Advíncula

6 R. Garcés

3 M. Antoni

13 M. Huamán

25 G. Gentile

4 G. Chávez

7 F. Gaibor

20 J. Vélez

27 K. Quevedo

8 E. Castillo

Coach · P. Guede

Substitutes

31 · C. Carbajal

15 · J. Castillo

2 · N. Díaz

99 · F. Girotti

14 · D´Alessandro Montenegro

22 · C. Neira

9 · L. Ramos

29 · J. Archimbaud

12 · Á. de la Cruz

Our number · cusco winPublished 12 Oct 00:30

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make Cusco a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cusco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cusco win	38%	41%	−3
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Alianza Lima win	34%	29%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	24%	−2
Cusco or draw	66%	71%	−5
Cusco clean sheet	32%	–	–
Alianza Lima clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.6 10.6 6.2 2.4 1 11.1 13.1 7.5 2.9 2 6.9 7.9 4.5 3 2.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cusco down, Alianza Lima across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,813 Primera División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 249 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.22 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cusco at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Alianza Lima away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Cusco, 1.16 for Alianza Lima. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.22

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ALI 8–0 CUS · CUS 2–0 ALI · ALI 3–0 CUS · ALI 1–2 CUS

Form · last six in Primera División

CUSCO

WLWWLW2–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

ALIANZA LIMA

WDLDLW1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	27	+26	56
2	Universitario	28	+12	50
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	+14	48
4	FBC Melgar	28	+16	47
5	Cusco	27	+2	45
6	Cienciano	28	+8	44
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	−9	43
8	Alianza Atletico	27	+5	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	+8	38
10	Sport Boys	27	+3	38
11	Sport Huancayo	28	−6	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	28	−10	35
13	Atletico Grau	28	−5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	−3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	−11	28
16	ADT	28	−13	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	−18	20