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Comerciantes Unidos v Juan Pablo II College

Comerciantes Unidos

1–1Full time

Juan Pablo II College

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:01

Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 Juan Pablo II College COMERCIANTES UNIDOS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Comerciantes Unidos win~~50%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.896

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.868

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Comerciantes Unidos win at 50%.
0′Much as we predicted: Comerciantes Unidos was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
1′KICK-OFF Comerciantes Unidos v Juan Pablo II College
14′Much as we predicted: Comerciantes Unidos was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
15′Much as we predicted: Comerciantes Unidos was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Pablo Miguez · Juan Pablo II College
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Matías Eric Sen · Comerciantes Unidos
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Comerciantes Unidos · On: Jean Olivares · Off: Maximiliano Pérez
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Comerciantes Unidos · On: Rodrigo Vilca · Off: Mathias Carpio
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Juan Pablo II College · On: Nilton Ramirez · Off: J. Torres
45′SECOND HALF Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 Juan Pablo II College
54′PENALTY · 53' Juan Pablo II College
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Comerciantes Unidos 0–1 Juan Pablo II College
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Comerciantes Unidos 0–1 Juan Pablo II College · Pablo Miguez
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Paolo Reyna · Juan Pablo II College
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Comerciantes Unidos · On: Wilter Ayovi · Off: Yimy Gamero
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Nilton Ramirez · Juan Pablo II College
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Juan Pablo II College · On: Jack·Duran · Off: Álvaro Rojas
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Juan Pablo II College · On: Héctor Bazán · Off: Erinson Ramirez
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Juan Pablo II College · On: Adan Hendricks Ayarza · Off: Juan Pablo Goicochea
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Juan Pablo II College
83′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Wilter Ayovi · Comerciantes Unidos
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Comerciantes Unidos · On: Josuee Herrera · Off: Daniel Lino
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Comerciantes Unidos · On: Flavio Alcedo · Off: Paolo Fuentes
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 Juan Pablo II College · Pablo Miguez
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 Juan Pablo II College · Rodrigo Vilca
FTFULL TIME Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 Juan Pablo II College
FTComerciantes Unidos 1–1 Juan Pablo II College · Comerciantes Unidos win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Comerciantes Unidos win50%

Draw24%

Juan Pablo II College win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:30

Venue · Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Referee · Kevin Ortega

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Comerciantes Unidos

4-4-2

99 José Pablo Alejandro Charún Valdez

32 J. Sánchez

66 Paolo Gessu Fuentes Varcárcel

6 J. Rodriguez

19 D. Lino

4 A. Martín Arias

20 J. Parodi

54 Y. Gamero

10 M. Carpio

9 M. Sen

13 M. Pérez

Coach · J. Hernández

Substitutes

15 · A. Cossio

8 · W. Ayoví

40 · F. Alcedo

17 · Matías Cordova

11 · J. Herrera

50 · J. Olivares

28 · O. Pinto

14 · Thiago Salinas

25 · Rodrigo Gary Vilca Betetta

Juan Pablo II College

4-1-4-1

23 M. Vega

2 H. Ancajima

31 J. Toledo

60 P. Míguez

19 P. Reyna

3 A. Sánchez

18 E. Ramírez

37 Á. Rojas

88 J. Torres

79 J. Goicochea

89 J. Pósito

Coach · J. Araujo

Substitutes

20 · H. Bazán

14 · J. Carhuallanqui

28 · J. Durán

8 · C. Flores

7 · A. Hendricks

12 · I. Quispe

15 · N. Ramírez

97 · M. Rodríguez

71 · C. Villanueva

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Comerciantes Unidos

4-4-2

99 José Pablo Alejandro Charún Valdez

32 J. Sánchez

66 Paolo Gessu Fuentes Varcárcel

6 J. Rodriguez

19 D. Lino

4 A. Martín Arias

20 J. Parodi

54 Y. Gamero

10 M. Carpio

9 M. Sen

13 M. Pérez

Coach · J. Hernández

Substitutes

15 · A. Cossio

8 · W. Ayoví

40 · F. Alcedo

17 · Matías Cordova

11 · J. Herrera

50 · J. Olivares

28 · O. Pinto

14 · Thiago Salinas

25 · Rodrigo Gary Vilca Betetta

Juan Pablo II College

4-1-4-1

23 M. Vega

2 H. Ancajima

31 J. Toledo

60 P. Míguez

19 P. Reyna

3 A. Sánchez

18 E. Ramírez

37 Á. Rojas

88 J. Torres

79 J. Goicochea

89 J. Pósito

Coach · J. Araujo

Substitutes

20 · H. Bazán

14 · J. Carhuallanqui

28 · J. Durán

8 · C. Flores

7 · A. Hendricks

12 · I. Quispe

15 · N. Ramírez

97 · M. Rodríguez

71 · C. Villanueva

Our number · comerciantes unidos winPublished 10 Oct 21:35

50% The market51%

Us50%

~~Market~~51%

We make Comerciantes Unidos a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · comerciantes unidos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Comerciantes Unidos win	50%	51%	−1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Juan Pablo II College win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	53%	+1
Both teams to score	55%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Comerciantes Unidos or draw	75%	77%	−2
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet	32%	–	–
Juan Pablo II College clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.1 6.6 3.8 1 9.9 11.3 6.3 2.4 2 8.4 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 4.8 5.4 3.1 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Comerciantes Unidos down, Juan Pablo II College across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,809 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 245 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Comerciantes Unidos at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Juan Pablo II College away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Comerciantes Unidos, 1.14 for Juan Pablo II College. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 21:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~JUA 2–2 COM · JUA 0–1 COM · COM 3–0 JUA

Form · last six in Primera División

COMERCIANTES UNIDOS

LWLDLL0–1 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2

JUAN PABLO II COLLEGE

LWWDWW0–2 · 5–1 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	27	+26	56
2	Universitario	27	+12	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	+15	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	+16	46
5	Cusco	27	+2	45
6	Cienciano	28	+8	44
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	−9	43
8	Alianza Atletico	27	+5	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	+8	38
10	Sport Boys	27	+3	38
11	Sport Huancayo	27	−7	35
12	Juan Pablo II College	27	−10	34
13	Atletico Grau	28	−5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	−3	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	−11	27
16	ADT	27	−13	25
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	−18	20