Comerciantes Unidos v Cienciano prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Comerciantes UnidosDrawCienciano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Comerciantes Unidos 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Comerciantes Unidos just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Comerciantes Unidos 39%, draw 25%, Cienciano 36%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Comerciantes Unidos v CiencianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Comerciantes Unidos win39%

Draw25%

Cienciano win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Comerciantes Unidos

Cienciano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 19 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Cienciano	29	+9	47
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · comerciantes unidos winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market30%

Us39%

~~Market~~30%

We make Comerciantes Unidos a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Comerciantes Unidos v Cienciano~~1.47 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 31 v 47~~14 v 6

~~The market · Comerciantes Unidos win~~30% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Comerciantes Unidos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Comerciantes Unidos win	39%	30%	+9
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Cienciano win	36%	43%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Comerciantes Unidos or draw	64%	57%	+7
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet	25%	–	–
Cienciano clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.9 7.9 5.5 2.6 1 8.4 11.6 8.0 3.7 2 6.2 8.4 5.8 2.7 3 3.1 4.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Comerciantes Unidos down, Cienciano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Comerciantes Unidos at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cienciano away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Comerciantes Unidos, 1.39 for Cienciano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CIE 1–0 COM · COM 1–1 CIE · CIE 3–2 COM · COM 1–2 CIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 28 Aug

COMERCIANTES UNIDOS

LDLLDL2–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–4

CIENCIANO

LWLDWW1–2 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	Universitario	30	+18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cusco	30	+2	48
6	Cienciano	29	+9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	+9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	−11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15