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Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca
Cienciano
UTC CajamarcaPrimera División · MON 19 OCT · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Cienciano win at 69%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Cienciano 69% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 69–18–13
- 1′KICK-OFF Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca
- 31′Cienciano have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 60–26–14
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 59% now
- 38′We said Cienciano at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 57%. 0–0 · 57–28–14
- 41′8 shots for Cienciano, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 56–30–14
- 44′We said Cienciano at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–31–14
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cienciano · On: Matias Succar · Off: Ray Sandoval
- 45′SECOND HALF Cienciano 0–0 UTC Cajamarca
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cienciano · On: Carlos Cabello · Off: Claudio Nuñez
- 47′12 shots for Cienciano, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 54–32–14
- 47′HALF-TIME Cienciano 0–0 UTC Cajamarca
- 53′We said Cienciano at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–14
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 49% now
- 54′16 shots for Cienciano, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 49–37–14
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.3 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 48–38–14
- 55′We said Cienciano at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
- 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Cienciano 1–0 UTC Cajamarca
- 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 86% now
- 56′Cristian Souza scores for Cienciano on 55′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
- 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Marcos Martinich · Cienciano
- 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Carlos Garcés · Cienciano
- 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Arquímedes Figuera · UTC Cajamarca
- 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Cristián Molins · UTC Cajamarca
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' UTC Cajamarca · On: Luis Arce · Off: Joshua Cantt
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 89% now
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cienciano · On: Henry Caparo · Off: Gerson Barreto
- 71′We said Cienciano at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Santiago Arias · Cienciano
- 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Cienciano 2–0 UTC Cajamarca
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
- 72′71′: Cristian Souza on the scoresheet for Cienciano, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 74′We said Cienciano at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Cienciano
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 90% now
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' UTC Cajamarca · On: Abdiel Arroyo · Off: Marlon de Jesús
- 77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' UTC Cajamarca
- 79′UTC Cajamarca are down to ten from 78′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 92–8–0
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cienciano · On: Gonzalo Aguirre · Off: Santiago Arias
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cienciano · On: Didier La Torre · Off: Carlos Garcés
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' UTC Cajamarca · On: Jhosep Nunez · Off: Adolfo Muñoz
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' UTC Cajamarca · On: Dylan Caro · Off: Francesco Cavagna
- 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
- FTFULL TIME Cienciano 1–0 UTC Cajamarca
- FTCienciano 1–0 UTC Cajamarca · Cienciano win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Cienciano are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Cienciano 69%, draw 18%, UTC Cajamarca 13%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 54%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
Cienciano win69%
UTC Cajamarca win13%Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 00:30
RoundClausura · matchday 12
VenueEstadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
RefereeAugusto Alfredo Menendez Laos
Match timeline
All events
CiencianoMIN
UTC CajamarcaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Cienciano
4-2-3-1
UTC Cajamarca
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Cienciano
UTC Cajamarca
Last match: 8 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División
Last match: 11 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Cienciano
4-2-3-1
1 G. Falcón
13 C. Núñez
4 M. Amondarain
3 K. Becerra
16 M. Martinich
88 G. Barreto
5 S. Arias
11 N. Bandiera
17 R. Sandoval
7 C. Souza
21 C. Garcés
Coach · Horacio Melgarejo
Substitutes
22 · C. Cabello
8 · G. Aguirre
26 · R. Aguilar
39 · H. Caparó
14 · S. Cavero
31 · Í. Espinoza
18 · D. La Torre
19 · M. Succar
27 · A. Yovera
UTC Cajamarca
4-2-3-1
1 Á. Campos
17 L. Garro
3 M. Ganoza
2 B. Duarte
6 F. Cavagna
15 J. Cerro
16 A. Figuera
22 D. Camacho
10 M. Lliuya
19 A. Muñoz
9 M. de Jesús
Coach · C. Molins
Substitutes
18 · S. Gálvez
8 · D. Dioses
13 · D. Caro
21 · R. Bettocchi
29 · I. Barrios
11 · A. Arroyo
88 · L. Arce
7 · J. Nunez
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Cienciano
4-2-3-1
1 G. Falcón
13 C. Núñez
4 M. Amondarain
3 K. Becerra
16 M. Martinich
88 G. Barreto
5 S. Arias
11 N. Bandiera
17 R. Sandoval
7 C. Souza
21 C. Garcés
Coach · Horacio Melgarejo
Substitutes
22 · C. Cabello
8 · G. Aguirre
26 · R. Aguilar
39 · H. Caparó
14 · S. Cavero
31 · Í. Espinoza
18 · D. La Torre
19 · M. Succar
27 · A. Yovera
UTC Cajamarca
4-2-3-1
1 Á. Campos
17 L. Garro
3 M. Ganoza
2 B. Duarte
6 F. Cavagna
15 J. Cerro
16 A. Figuera
22 D. Camacho
10 M. Lliuya
19 A. Muñoz
9 M. de Jesús
Coach · C. Molins
Substitutes
18 · S. Gálvez
8 · D. Dioses
13 · D. Caro
21 · R. Bettocchi
29 · I. Barrios
11 · A. Arroyo
88 · L. Arce
7 · J. Nunez
We make Cienciano a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 72% to 78% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano win | 69% | 78% | −9 |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | +4 |
| UTC Cajamarca win | 13% | 8% | +5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 85% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 47% | −6 |
| Cienciano or draw | 87% | 92% | −5 |
| Cienciano clean sheet | 41% | – | – |
| UTC Cajamarca clean sheet | 10% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug
CIENCIANO
UTC CAJAMARCA
The table
2026 · Annual table| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 29 | +29 | 62 |
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 29 | +18 | 50 |
| 3 | Universitario | 28 | +12 | 50 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 29 | +12 | 48 |
| 5 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 29 | −8 | 46 |
| 6 | Cusco | 29 | 0 | 45 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 28 | +8 | 44 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 28 | +7 | 43 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 28 | +9 | 41 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 29 | −5 | 41 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 29 | −1 | 38 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 29 | −8 | 38 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 29 | −7 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 28 | −3 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | −11 | 28 |
| 16 | ADT | 29 | −14 | 26 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 28 | −19 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 28 | −19 | 15 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
Universitario
Deportivo Garcilaso
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Cusco
Alianza Atletico
Sporting Cristal
Sport Huancayo
Sport Boys
Juan Pablo II College
Atletico Grau
Comerciantes Unidos
FC Cajamarca
ADT
UCV Moquegua