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Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca

Cienciano
1–0Full time
UTC Cajamarca

Primera División · MON 19 OCT · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 03:00
Cienciano 1–0 UTC Cajamarca CIENCIANO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Cienciano win69%
The market said78%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.145
The market’s Brier score0.075

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cienciano win at 69%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Cienciano 69% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 69–18–13
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca
  4. 31′Cienciano have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 60–26–14
  5. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 59% now
  6. 38′We said Cienciano at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 57%. 0–0 · 57–28–14
  7. 41′8 shots for Cienciano, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 56–30–14
  8. 44′We said Cienciano at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–31–14
  9. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cienciano · On: Matias Succar · Off: Ray Sandoval
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Cienciano 0–0 UTC Cajamarca
  11. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cienciano · On: Carlos Cabello · Off: Claudio Nuñez
  12. 47′12 shots for Cienciano, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 54–32–14
  13. 47′HALF-TIME Cienciano 0–0 UTC Cajamarca
  14. 53′We said Cienciano at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–14
  15. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 49% now
  16. 54′16 shots for Cienciano, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 49–37–14
  17. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.3 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 48–38–14
  18. 55′We said Cienciano at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
  19. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Cienciano 1–0 UTC Cajamarca
  20. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 86% now
  21. 56′Cristian Souza scores for Cienciano on 55′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
  22. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Marcos Martinich · Cienciano
  23. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Carlos Garcés · Cienciano
  24. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Arquímedes Figuera · UTC Cajamarca
  25. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Cristián Molins · UTC Cajamarca
  26. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' UTC Cajamarca · On: Luis Arce · Off: Joshua Cantt
  27. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 89% now
  28. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cienciano · On: Henry Caparo · Off: Gerson Barreto
  29. 71′We said Cienciano at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  30. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Santiago Arias · Cienciano
  31. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Cienciano 2–0 UTC Cajamarca
  32. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
  33. 72′71′: Cristian Souza on the scoresheet for Cienciano, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  34. 74′We said Cienciano at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  35. 74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Cienciano
  36. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 90% now
  37. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' UTC Cajamarca · On: Abdiel Arroyo · Off: Marlon de Jesús
  38. 77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' UTC Cajamarca
  39. 79′UTC Cajamarca are down to ten from 78′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 92–8–0
  40. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cienciano · On: Gonzalo Aguirre · Off: Santiago Arias
  41. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cienciano · On: Didier La Torre · Off: Carlos Garcés
  42. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' UTC Cajamarca · On: Jhosep Nunez · Off: Adolfo Muñoz
  43. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' UTC Cajamarca · On: Dylan Caro · Off: Francesco Cavagna
  44. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Cienciano win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
  45. FTFULL TIME Cienciano 1–0 UTC Cajamarca
  46. FTCienciano 1–0 UTC Cajamarca · Cienciano win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cienciano are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cienciano 69%, draw 18%, UTC Cajamarca 13%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Cienciano v UTC CajamarcaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Cienciano win69%
Draw18%
UTC Cajamarca win13%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 00:30

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

RefereeAugusto Alfredo Menendez Laos

Line-ups

Cienciano

4-2-3-1

UTC Cajamarca

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cienciano

UTC Cajamarca

10Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Annual table

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Cienciano28+844
18UTC Cajamarca28−1915

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cienciano

4-2-3-1

1 G. Falcón

13 C. Núñez

4 M. Amondarain

3 K. Becerra

16 M. Martinich

88 G. Barreto

5 S. Arias

11 N. Bandiera

17 R. Sandoval

7 C. Souza

21 C. Garcés

Coach · Horacio Melgarejo

Substitutes

22 · C. Cabello

8 · G. Aguirre

26 · R. Aguilar

39 · H. Caparó

14 · S. Cavero

31 · Í. Espinoza

18 · D. La Torre

19 · M. Succar

27 · A. Yovera

UTC Cajamarca

4-2-3-1

1 Á. Campos

17 L. Garro

3 M. Ganoza

2 B. Duarte

6 F. Cavagna

15 J. Cerro

16 A. Figuera

22 D. Camacho

10 M. Lliuya

19 A. Muñoz

9 M. de Jesús

Coach · C. Molins

Substitutes

18 · S. Gálvez

8 · D. Dioses

13 · D. Caro

21 · R. Bettocchi

29 · I. Barrios

11 · A. Arroyo

88 · L. Arce

7 · J. Nunez

Our number · cienciano winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
69% The market78%
Us69%
Market78%

We make Cienciano a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca2.35 – 0.91
Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 AugW2 D1 L3 · W0 D0 L6
Table places · points 44 v 157 v 18
The market · Cienciano win78% · ours 69%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 13 OCT 05:4319 OCT 00:16
Our probability · Cienciano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 72% to 78% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Cienciano win69%78%−9
Draw18%14%+4
UTC Cajamarca win13%8%+5
Over 2.5 goals63%67%−4
Both teams to score54%50%+4
Over 1.5 goals83%85%−2
Over 3.5 goals41%47%−6
Cienciano or draw87%92%−5
Cienciano clean sheet41%––
UTC Cajamarca clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.5%
0123450 4.1 3.6 1 9.1 8.3 3.7 2 10.5 9.5 4.3 3 8.2 7.3 3.3 4 4.8 4.3 5 2.3 2.1
under 2% 5% 12%+Cienciano down, UTC Cajamarca across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.70
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored8 of 10
Last meetingsUTC 2–2 CIE · UTC 0–2 CIE · CIE 6–1 UTC · UTC 1–2 CIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug

CIENCIANO

LLWLDW1–5 · 1–2 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

UTC CAJAMARCA

LLLLLL1–3 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Annual table
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Alianza Lima29+2962
2FBC Melgar29+1850
3Universitario28+1250
4Deportivo Garcilaso29+1248
5Club Deportivo Los Chankas29−846
6Cusco29045
7Cienciano28+844
8Alianza Atletico28+743
9Sporting Cristal28+941
10Sport Huancayo29−541
11Sport Boys29−138
12Juan Pablo II College29−838
13Atletico Grau29−733
14Comerciantes Unidos28−331
15FC Cajamarca28−1128
16ADT29−1426
17UCV Moquegua28−1925
18UTC Cajamarca28−1915

The competition's standings before kick-off.