Cienciano v Atletico Grau prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CiencianoDrawAtletico Grau

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cienciano 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cienciano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cienciano 55%, draw 24%, Atletico Grau 20%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Cienciano v Atletico GrauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Cienciano win55%

Draw24%

Atletico Grau win20%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cienciano

Atletico Grau

10Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 23 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cienciano winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Cienciano a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cienciano v Atletico Grau~~1.71 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 47 v 34~~5 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cienciano win	55%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Atletico Grau win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Cienciano or draw	80%	–	–
Cienciano clean sheet	40%	–	–
Atletico Grau clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 7.4 6.7 3.1 1 12.2 11.3 5.2 2 10.4 9.5 4.4 3 5.9 5.4 2.5 4 2.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cienciano down, Atletico Grau across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.44 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cienciano at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Grau away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Cienciano, 0.93 for Atletico Grau. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–2 CIE · CIE 1–0 ATL · ATL 1–1 CIE · CIE 1–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 31 Aug

CIENCIANO

LWLDWW1–2 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

ATLETICO GRAU

LWLDLD2–4 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15