Atletico Grau v Universitario prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atletico GrauDrawUniversitario

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Universitario 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Universitario are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Grau 30%, draw 28%, Universitario 42%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Grau v UniversitarioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Grau win30%

Draw28%

Universitario win42%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueAmbrosio Maco Arroyo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Grau

Universitario

8Days since last match13

Last match: 23 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · universitario winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Universitario a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.2, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Grau v Universitario~~1.00 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 34 v 53~~13 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Grau win	30%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Universitario win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Atletico Grau or draw	58%	–	–
Atletico Grau clean sheet	29%	–	–
Universitario clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.8 13.1 8.2 3.5 1 10.5 13.0 8.0 3.4 2 5.3 6.5 4.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Grau down, Universitario across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Grau at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Universitario away: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Atletico Grau, 1.25 for Universitario. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–1 ATL · UNI 0–1 ATL · UNI 3–1 ATL · ATL 0–2 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug

ATLETICO GRAU

LWLDLD2–4 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

UNIVERSITARIO

WDWLDW4–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 4–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15