Alianza Lima v Cienciano prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Alianza LimaDrawCienciano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Alianza Lima 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alianza Lima are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alianza Lima 64%, draw 21%, Cienciano 15%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Alianza Lima v CiencianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Alianza Lima win64%

Draw21%

Cienciano win15%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Alejandro Villanueva

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alianza Lima

Cienciano

13Days since last match13

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 19 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alianza lima winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Alianza Lima a 64% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alianza Lima v Cienciano~~1.94 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 62 v 47~~1 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alianza Lima win	64%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Cienciano win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Alianza Lima or draw	85%	–	–
Alianza Lima clean sheet	45%	–	–
Cienciano clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 6.6 5.2 2.1 1 12.4 10.0 4.1 2 11.9 9.5 3.9 3 7.7 6.2 2.5 4 3.8 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza Lima down, Cienciano across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alianza Lima at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cienciano away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Alianza Lima, 0.81 for Cienciano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CIE 0–1 ALI · CIE 2–1 ALI · ALI 0–1 CIE · ALI 3–0 CIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

ALIANZA LIMA

LDLWWW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1

CIENCIANO

LWLDWW1–2 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	Universitario	30	+18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cusco	30	+2	48
6	Cienciano	29	+9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	+9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	−11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15