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Alianza Lima v Atletico Grau

Alianza Lima

3–1Full time

Atletico Grau

Primera División · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 05:01

Alianza Lima 3–1 Atletico Grau ALIANZA LIMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alianza Lima win~~64%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.203

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.123

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alianza Lima win at 64%.
1′KICK-OFF Alianza Lima v Atletico Grau
2′Much as we predicted: Alianza Lima was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–24–13
11′We published Alianza Lima at 64%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Alianza Lima 1–0 Atletico Grau
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Alianza Lima win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
12′Alianza Lima find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
15′We published Alianza Lima at 64%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Alianza Lima 2–0 Atletico Grau
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Alianza Lima win: 64% at kick-off, 97% now
17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' Alianza Lima
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Alianza Lima win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 87–11–2
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Esteban Pavez · Alianza Lima
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Alianza Lima 2–0 Atletico Grau
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Alianza Lima win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
36′GOAL DISALLOWED · 36' Alianza Lima
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Alianza Lima win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
43′We said Alianza Lima at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 1–1 · 48–39–13
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Alianza Lima 1–1 Atletico Grau
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Alianza Lima win: 64% at kick-off, 48% now
45′SECOND HALF Alianza Lima 1–1 Atletico Grau
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alianza Lima · On: Gaspar Gentile · Off: Kevin Quevedo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alianza Lima · On: Jesús Castillo · Off: Esteban Pavez
46′Aldair Vásquez scores for Atletico Grau on 44′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 46–41–12
47′HALF-TIME Alianza Lima 1–1 Atletico Grau
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Kevin Quevedo · Alianza Lima
50′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 88–11–2
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Alianza Lima 2–1 Atletico Grau
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Alianza Lima win: 64% at kick-off, 88% now
53′50′: Erick Castillo on the scoresheet for Alianza Lima, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 88–10–1
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Alianza Lima · On: Gianfranco Chavez · Off: Mateo Antoni Pavon
62′We published Alianza Lima at 64%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atletico Grau · On: Pablo Lavandeira · Off: Aldair Vásquez
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atletico Grau · On: Nicolás Delgadillo · Off: Diego Barreto
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Adrián Fernández · Atletico Grau
81′We said Alianza Lima at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 2–2 · 15–80–5
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Atletico Grau · On: Luis Benites · Off: Adrián Fernández
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Atletico Grau · On: Yamir Ruidiaz Misitich · Off: Rodrigo Tapia
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Alianza Lima 2–2 Atletico Grau
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Alianza Lima win: 64% at kick-off, 15% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Alianza Lima win 15%)
82′We published Alianza Lima at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Jairo Vélez · Alianza Lima
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Alianza Lima 3–1 Atletico Grau
83′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′GOAL DISALLOWED · 83' Atletico Grau
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Alianza Lima win: 64% at kick-off, over 99% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Alianza Lima win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw under 1%)
84′Alianza Lima ahead on 83′ through Jairo Vélez. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Alianza Lima · On: Piero Cari · Off: Erick Castillo
90′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Jesús Castillo · Alianza Lima
93′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Atletico Grau · On: Elsar Rodas · Off: Gabriel Alfaro
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Alianza Lima · On: Luis Ramos · Off: Federico Girotti
95′Full time, 3–1. We called Alianza Lima at 64% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Alianza Lima 3–1 Atletico Grau
FTAlianza Lima 3–1 Atletico Grau · Alianza Lima win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alianza Lima are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alianza Lima 64%, draw 24%, Atletico Grau 13%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Alianza Lima v Atletico GrauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alianza Lima win64%

Draw24%

Atletico Grau win13%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:30

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Alejandro Villanueva

RefereeMichael Espinoza

Line-ups

Alianza Lima

4-1-3-2

Atletico Grau

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alianza Lima

Atletico Grau

7Days since last match10

Last match: 12 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 8 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alianza Lima

4-1-3-2

1 A. Duarte

17 L. Advíncula

6 R. Garcés

3 M. Antoni

13 M. Huamán

5 E. Pavez

7 F. Gaibor

27 K. Quevedo

20 J. Vélez

99 F. Girotti

8 E. Castillo

Coach · P. Guede

Substitutes

11 · A. Cantero

2 · N. Díaz

25 · G. Gentile

9 · L. Ramos

12 · Á. de la Cruz

15 · J. Castillo

21 · P. Cari

31 · C. Carbajal

4 · G. Chávez

Atletico Grau

5-4-1

1 P. Álvarez

8 C. Vásquez

27 R. Tapia

2 L. Acevedo

3 I. Tapia

25 G. Alfaro

20 A. Vásquez

13 F. Oncoy

5 R. Guarderas

7 D. Barreto

99 A. Fernández

Coach · G. Ameli

Substitutes

96 · L. Benítes

33 · J. Calderón

21 · E. Correa

11 · N. Delgadillo

15 · P. Lavandeira

6 · E. Rodas

4 · D. Rodríguez

16 · J. Ataupillco

24 · Yamir Ruidíaz Misitich

Our number · alianza lima winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

64% The market72%

Us64%

~~Market~~72%

We make Alianza Lima a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alianza Lima v Atletico Grau~~1.70 – 0.60

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 59 v 33~~1 v 13

~~The market · Alianza Lima win~~72% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alianza Lima win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alianza Lima win	64%	72%	−8
Draw	24%	18%	+6
Atletico Grau win	13%	10%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	40%	55%	−15
Both teams to score	37%	45%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	67%	76%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	20%	34%	−14
Alianza Lima or draw	87%	90%	−3
Alianza Lima clean sheet	55%	–	–
Atletico Grau clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.0%

0123450 10.4 6.0 1 17.0 10.2 3.0 2 14.4 8.5 2.6 3 8.2 4.8 4 3.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza Lima down, Atletico Grau across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,819 Primera División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 255 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.11 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alianza Lima at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Grau away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Alianza Lima, 0.60 for Atletico Grau. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 02:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–1 ALI · ALI 2–1 ATL · ATL 1–1 ALI · ATL 1–0 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 21 Aug

ALIANZA LIMA

DLDLWW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–1

ATLETICO GRAU

WWLWLD3–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	28	+27	59
2	Universitario	28	+12	50
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	+14	48
4	FBC Melgar	28	+16	47
5	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
6	Cusco	29	0	45
7	Cienciano	28	+8	44
8	Alianza Atletico	28	+7	43
9	Sporting Cristal	28	+9	41
10	Sport Huancayo	29	−5	41
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	28	−5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	−3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	−11	28
16	ADT	29	−14	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	−19	15