Alianza Atletico v Universitario prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 00:00

Alianza Atletico 1–4 Universitario UNIVERSITARIO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Universitario win~~37%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.594

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.537

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Universitario win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Alianza Atletico v Universitario
2′🟨 YELLOW · 1' Horacio Calcaterra · Universitario
3′Little has changed for our model: Universitario 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
10′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Stefano Fernández · Alianza Atletico
16′We said Universitario at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 12–21–67
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Alianza Atletico 0–1 Universitario
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Universitario win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' Universitario
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Universitario win: 37% at kick-off, 35% now
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Alianza Atletico 0–1 Universitario
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Universitario win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
19′15′: Román Suárez puts it into the Alianza Atletico net, and it is 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–67
23′We said Universitario at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Alianza Atletico 0–2 Universitario
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Universitario win: 37% at kick-off, 89% now
24′Universitario ahead on 23′ through Andy Polo. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
27′We said Universitario at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
32′8 shots for Alianza Atletico, 1 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Ariel Muñoz · Alianza Atletico
45′We said Universitario at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Alianza Atletico 0–3 Universitario
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Universitario win: 37% at kick-off, 99% now
45′SECOND HALF Alianza Atletico 0–3 Universitario
46′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–99
46′Alex Valera scores for Universitario on 45′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
47′HALF-TIME Alianza Atletico 0–3 Universitario
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alianza Atletico · On: Jimmy Perez · Off: Jorge del Castillo
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alianza Atletico · On: Williams Aldair·Guzman Vargas · Off: Stefano Fernández
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alianza Atletico · On: Valentin Robaldo · Off: José María Ingratti
54′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Anderson Santamaría · Universitario
55′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–4–95
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Alianza Atletico 1–3 Universitario
57′56′: Ariel Muñoz on the scoresheet for Alianza Atletico, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Universitario · On: Lisandro Alzugaray · Off: Edison Flores
63′We said Universitario at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
63′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Alianza Atletico 1–4 Universitario
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Alianza Atletico · On: Erick Perleche · Off: Anthony Gordillo
66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Universitario
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Universitario · On: Jorge Murrugarra · Off: Jairo Concha
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Universitario · On: José Rivera · Off: Gianluca Lapadula
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Alianza Atletico · On: Jairo Molina · Off: Ariel Muñoz
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Alianza Atletico 1–4 Universitario
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Universitario · On: Piero Quispe · Off: Alex Valera
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Universitario · On: Héctor Fertoli · Off: Horacio Calcaterra
83′Universitario ahead on 82′ through an own goal by Jose Lujan. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
90′Alianza Atletico have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Williams Aldair·Guzman Vargas · Alianza Atletico
94′1–4 at the end. Our 37% on Universitario comes in. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Alianza Atletico 1–4 Universitario
FTAlianza Atletico 1–4 Universitario · Universitario win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Universitario just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Alianza Atletico 35%, draw 28%, Universitario 37%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Alianza Atletico v UniversitarioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alianza Atletico win35%

Draw28%

Universitario win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Campeones del 36

RefereeSebastian Lozano

Line-ups

Alianza Atletico

4-1-4-1

Universitario

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alianza Atletico

Universitario

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Universitario	28	+12	50
8	Alianza Atletico	28	+7	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alianza Atletico

4-1-4-1

31 S. Rivadeneyra

16 S. Fernández

2 R. Suarez

6 J. Luján

24 A. Gordillo

10 Germán Díaz

23 A. Muñoz

15 H. Lupú

22 J. del Castillo

17 C. Penilla

27 J. Ingratti

Coach · F. Urciuoli

Substitutes

20 · Jimmy Pérez

95 · D. Prieto

9 · V. Robaldo

37 · J. Delgado

25 · W. Guzmán

11 · G. Larios

19 · J. Mendieta

29 · J. Molina

21 · E. Perleche

Universitario

3-4-1-2

1 D. Romero

4 A. Santamaría

2 C. Fara

3 W. Riveros

24 A. Polo

17 J. Concha

10 H. Calcaterra

33 C. Inga

19 É. Flores

18 G. Lapadula

20 A. Valera

Coach · F. Bustos

Substitutes

8 · H. Fértoli

29 · A. Corzo

30 · Lisandro Joel Alzugaray

70 · J. Gutiérrez

23 · J. Murrugarra

39 · P. Quispe

15 · J. Requena

25 · M. Vargas

11 · J. Rivera

Our number · universitario winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market40%

Us37%

~~Market~~40%

We make Universitario a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alianza Atletico v Universitario~~1.15 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 21 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 43 v 50~~8 v 3

~~The market · Universitario win~~40% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Universitario win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alianza Atletico win	35%	31%	+4
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Universitario win	37%	40%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Alianza Atletico or draw	63%	60%	+3
Alianza Atletico clean sheet	30%	–	–
Universitario clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.9 11.4 6.9 2.8 1 10.8 13.1 7.7 3.1 2 6.3 7.4 4.4 3 2.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza Atletico down, Universitario across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,820 Primera División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 256 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alianza Atletico at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Universitario away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Alianza Atletico, 1.20 for Universitario. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 21:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–2 ALI · ALI 0–2 UNI · UNI 0–1 ALI · ALI 0–3 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 21 Aug

ALIANZA ATLETICO

WWWLWW3–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 3–1

UNIVERSITARIO

WWDWLD3–0 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	29	+18	50
3	Universitario	28	+12	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
6	Cusco	29	0	45
7	Cienciano	28	+8	44
8	Alianza Atletico	28	+7	43
9	Sporting Cristal	28	+9	41
10	Sport Huancayo	29	−5	41
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	29	−7	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	−3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	−11	28
16	ADT	29	−14	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	−19	15