Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Alianza AtleticoDrawJuan Pablo II College

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Alianza Atletico 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alianza Atletico are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alianza Atletico 57%, draw 23%, Juan Pablo II College 20%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II CollegeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Alianza Atletico win57%

Draw23%

Juan Pablo II College win20%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Campeones del 36

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alianza Atletico

Juan Pablo II College

7Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 25 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	−11	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alianza atletico winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Alianza Atletico a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College~~1.85 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 43 v 38~~10 v 12

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alianza Atletico win	57%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Juan Pablo II College win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Alianza Atletico or draw	80%	–	–
Alianza Atletico clean sheet	38%	–	–
Juan Pablo II College clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.9%

0123450 6.2 5.8 2.9 1 10.9 10.7 5.2 2 10.0 9.7 4.8 3 6.2 6.0 2.9 4 2.9 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza Atletico down, Juan Pablo II College across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alianza Atletico at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Juan Pablo II College away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Alianza Atletico, 0.98 for Juan Pablo II College. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~JUA 0–2 ALI · ALI 0–1 JUA · JUA 1–0 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 4 Sept

ALIANZA ATLETICO

WLWWLL3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 1–4

JUAN PABLO II COLLEGE

DWWDWL1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	Universitario	30	+18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cusco	30	+2	48
6	Cienciano	29	+9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	+9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	−11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15