Alianza Atletico v Deportivo Garcilaso prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Alianza AtleticoDrawDeportivo Garcilaso

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Alianza Atletico 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alianza Atletico are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alianza Atletico 44%, draw 27%, Deportivo Garcilaso 28%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Alianza Atletico v Deportivo GarcilasoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Alianza Atletico win44%

Draw27%

Deportivo Garcilaso win28%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Campeones del 36

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alianza Atletico

Deportivo Garcilaso

4Days since last match11

Last match: 24 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alianza atletico winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Alianza Atletico a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alianza Atletico v Deportivo Garcilaso~~1.37 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 43 v 48~~10 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alianza Atletico win

Published at 45%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alianza Atletico win	44%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Deportivo Garcilaso win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Alianza Atletico or draw	72%	–	–
Alianza Atletico clean sheet	36%	–	–
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.2 9.3 4.9 1 12.3 12.7 6.5 2.3 2 8.4 8.6 4.5 3 3.9 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza Atletico down, Deportivo Garcilaso across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alianza Atletico at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Garcilaso away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Alianza Atletico, 1.04 for Deportivo Garcilaso. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–1 ALI · ALI 2–0 DEP · DEP 2–4 ALI · ALI 1–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

ALIANZA ATLETICO

WLWWLL3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 1–4

DEPORTIVO GARCILASO

WWLWLL1–0 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 2–4

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	Universitario	30	+18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cusco	30	+2	48
6	Cienciano	29	+9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	+9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	−11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15