ADT v UCV Moquegua prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ADTDrawUCV Moquegua

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · ADT 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ADT are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ADT 53%, draw 26%, UCV Moquegua 21%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on ADT v UCV MoqueguaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

ADT win53%

Draw26%

UCV Moquegua win21%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ADT

UCV Moquegua

5Days since last match10

Last match: 23 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · adt winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make ADT a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ADT v UCV Moquegua~~1.54 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 27 v 28~~17 v 16

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ADT win	53%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
UCV Moquegua win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
ADT or draw	79%	–	–
ADT clean sheet	43%	–	–
UCV Moquegua clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 9.4 7.8 3.4 1 13.9 11.9 5.1 2 10.7 9.1 3.9 3 5.5 4.7 2.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ADT down, UCV Moquegua across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ADT at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). UCV Moquegua away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for ADT, 0.86 for UCV Moquegua. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ADT 2–0 UCV · UCV 2–2 ADT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

ADT

LLWDLD0–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

UCV MOQUEGUA

LLLLLW1–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15