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ADT v FC Cajamarca

ADT

0–0Full time

FC Cajamarca

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Union Tarma

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

ADT 0–0 FC Cajamarca ADT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ADT win~~53%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.940

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.829

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ADT win at 53%.
2′Much as we predicted: ADT was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
2′KICK-OFF ADT v FC Cajamarca
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' FC Cajamarca
9′Much as we predicted: ADT was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
29′ADT have had 8.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 47–29–24
42′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Jhon Vega · FC Cajamarca
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Aylton Mazzo · ADT
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Carlos Gómez · FC Cajamarca
45′HALF-TIME ADT 0–0 FC Cajamarca
46′SECOND HALF ADT 0–0 FC Cajamarca
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Joaquín Pereira · ADT
49′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Carlos Meza · FC Cajamarca
53′SUBSTITUTION · 54' FC Cajamarca · On: R. Suárez · Off: Carlos Gómez
53′SUBSTITUTION · 54' ADT · On: Jhojan Garcilazo · Off: Aylton Mazzo
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' R. Suárez · FC Cajamarca
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' ADT · On: Jhair Soto · Off: Joaquín Pereira
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' ADT · On: Jonathan Bauman · Off: Said Peralta
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' ADT · On: Jerry Navarro · Off: Alejandro Ramos
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Cajamarca · On: Hairo Camacho · Off: P. Cejas
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' ADT · On: Omar Vidal Ramírez Lozano · Off: John Narváez
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Omar Vidal Ramírez Lozano · ADT
90′SUBSTITUTION · 93' FC Cajamarca · On: José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez · Off: José Mauricio Arrasco Calderón
FTFULL TIME ADT 0–0 FC Cajamarca
FTADT 0–0 FC Cajamarca · ADT win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

ADT win53%

Draw23%

FC Cajamarca win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Estadio Union Tarma

Referee · Mike Palomino

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

ADT

4-2-3-1

30 Juan Valencia

98 Alejandro Ramos

99 Joaquin Pereyra

44 Horacio Benincasa

59 Orlando Nuñez

23 John Narváez

16 Luis Pérez

77 Juan Lucumí

7 Joao Rojas

18 Aylton Mazzo

24 Said Peralta

Coach · V. Rivera

Substitutes

26 · Jhojan Garcilazo

28 · Jhair Soto

32 · Jonathan Bauman

31 · Jerry Navarro

50 · Omar Riveros

33 · Carlos Solis

3 · Leonardo Rugel

6 · Ángel Ojeda

27 · Alexander Hidalgo

FC Cajamarca

4-2-3-1

3 Jonathan Medina

44 Carlos Gómez

21 John Vega

95 Yordi Vílchez

31 Sebastián Enciso

25 Paulo Goyoneche

18 Jefferson Orejuela

20 Carlos Meza

11 Mauricio Arrasco

17 Brandon Palacios

9 Pedro Santiago Cejas

Coach · C. Ayala

Substitutes

5 · Renato Suárez

88 · Edson Aubert

77 · José Lugo

12 · Samuel Aspajo

14 · Arthur Gutiérrez

26 · Hairo Timaná

6 · Michel Rasmussen

13 · Carlos Correa

8 · Valentino Sandoval

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

ADT

4-2-3-1

30 Juan Valencia

98 Alejandro Ramos

99 Joaquin Pereyra

44 Horacio Benincasa

59 Orlando Nuñez

23 John Narváez

16 Luis Pérez

77 Juan Lucumí

7 Joao Rojas

18 Aylton Mazzo

24 Said Peralta

Coach · V. Rivera

Substitutes

26 · Jhojan Garcilazo

28 · Jhair Soto

32 · Jonathan Bauman

31 · Jerry Navarro

50 · Omar Riveros

33 · Carlos Solis

3 · Leonardo Rugel

6 · Ángel Ojeda

27 · Alexander Hidalgo

FC Cajamarca

4-2-3-1

3 Jonathan Medina

44 Carlos Gómez

21 John Vega

95 Yordi Vílchez

31 Sebastián Enciso

25 Paulo Goyoneche

18 Jefferson Orejuela

20 Carlos Meza

11 Mauricio Arrasco

17 Brandon Palacios

9 Pedro Santiago Cejas

Coach · C. Ayala

Substitutes

5 · Renato Suárez

88 · Edson Aubert

77 · José Lugo

12 · Samuel Aspajo

14 · Arthur Gutiérrez

26 · Hairo Timaná

6 · Michel Rasmussen

13 · Carlos Correa

8 · Valentino Sandoval

Our number · adt winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

53% The market48%

Us53%

~~Market~~48%

We make ADT a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · adt win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ADT win	53%	48%	+5
Draw	23%	27%	−4
FC Cajamarca win	24%	25%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	52%	+7
Both teams to score	58%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	75%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	37%	32%	+5
ADT or draw	76%	75%	+1
ADT clean sheet	31%	–	–
FC Cajamarca clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.9 5.5 3.3 1 8.7 10.4 6.1 2.5 2 8.2 9.5 5.7 2.3 3 5.1 6.0 3.6 4 2.5 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ADT down, FC Cajamarca across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,809 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 245 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ADT at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Cajamarca away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for ADT, 1.19 for FC Cajamarca. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FCC 2–2 ADT

Form · last six in Primera División

ADT

DLLLLW1–1 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–1

FC CAJAMARCA

LLWLWL2–3 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–5 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	27	+26	56
2	Universitario	27	+12	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	+15	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	+16	46
5	Cusco	27	+2	45
6	Cienciano	28	+8	44
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	−9	43
8	Alianza Atletico	27	+5	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	+8	38
10	Sport Boys	27	+3	38
11	Sport Huancayo	27	−7	35
12	Juan Pablo II College	27	−10	34
13	Atletico Grau	28	−5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	−3	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	−11	27
16	ADT	27	−13	25
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	−18	20