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Sportivo Trinidense v Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Martin Torres
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Sportivo Trinidense win at 37%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Sportivo Trinidense 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
- 2′KICK-OFF Sportivo Trinidense v Libertad Asuncion
- 20′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
- 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion
- 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Sportivo Trinidense win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
- 23′Sportivo Trinidense ahead on 21′ through Clementino González. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–20–12
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–11
- 33′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Libertad Asuncion · On: J. Estigarribia Meza · Off: Nestor Gimenez
- 36′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
- 45′HALF-TIME Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion
- 45′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Nicolás Maná · Sportivo Trinidense
- 45′SECOND HALF Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Libertad Asuncion · On: Hugo Fernandez · Off: Federico Carrizo
- 56′54′: Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez on the scoresheet for Libertad Asuncion. 1–0 · 75–20–5
- 57′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
- 57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez · Libertad Asuncion
- 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Lucas Sanabria · Libertad Asuncion
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Tomás Ezequiel Rayer · Off: Luis Carlos Abreu Benegas
- 60′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Gustavo Aguilar · Libertad Asuncion
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Sportivo Trinidense win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
- 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Clementino González · Sportivo Trinidense
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredo · Off: Nicolás Maná
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Libertad Asuncion · On: Luciano Nequecaur · Off: Ivan Emanuel Ramirez Ferreira
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Libertad Asuncion · On: P. Villalba · Off: Agustín Manzur
- 68′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 75′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Luciano Nequecaur · Libertad Asuncion
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Sportivo Trinidense win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Néstor Camacho · Off: Clementino González
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sportivo Trinidense · On: David Villalba · Off: Alan Tobias Morinigo
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Luis De la Cruz · Off: Nelson Ariel Gauto Castillo
- 81′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Libertad Asuncion · On: Rodrigo Acuña Vera · Off: Gustavo Aguilar
- 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Hugo Fernandez · Libertad Asuncion
- 88′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Sportivo Trinidense win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
- FTFULL TIME Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion
- FTSportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion · Sportivo Trinidense win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Sportivo Trinidense just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Sportivo Trinidense 37%, draw 29%, Libertad Asuncion 34%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Sportivo Trinidense win37%
Libertad Asuncion win34%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 23:20
RoundClausura · matchday 15
VenueEstadio Martin Torres
RefereeDavid Ojeda
Match timeline
All events
Sportivo TrinidenseMIN
Libertad AsuncionEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Sportivo Trinidense
4-1-4-1
Libertad Asuncion
4-4-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sportivo Trinidense
Libertad Asuncion
Last match: 10 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura
Last match: 11 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Sportivo Trinidense
4-1-4-1
12 V. Samudio
23 C. Benítez
40 A. da Silveira
6 A. Cañete
4 D. Melgarejo
5 N. Gauto
10 N. Maná
11 L. Abreu
21 G. Viera
31 A. Morinigo
20 C. González
Coach · J. Arrúa
Substitutes
7 · N. Camacho
13 · Deivis Faustino Barone Mora
19 · A. Cano
1 · M. Dufour
22 · J. Gamarra
9 · O. Giménez
37 · L. Gonzalez
14 · S. Mendoza
29 · T. Rayer
2 · A. Ruiz Díaz
3 · D. Villalba
8 · L. de la Cruz
Libertad Asuncion
4-4-2
12 R. Morínigo
2 A. Benítez
5 G. Flores
31 T. Fernández
4 N. Giménez
26 I. Ramirez
8 F. Carrizo
21 L. Sanabria
7 A. Manzur
9 G. Aguilar
11 E. Vera
Coach · Nelson Valdez
Substitutes
24 · R. Villalba
15 · T. Vera
32 · L. Nequecaur
27 · A. Molinas
33 · C. Martínez
1 · Á. González
20 · H. Fernández
28 · M. Fernández
38 · J. Estigarribia Meza
35 · E. Diaz
30 · O. Acuña
22 · P. Villalba
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Sportivo Trinidense
4-1-4-1
12 V. Samudio
23 C. Benítez
40 A. da Silveira
6 A. Cañete
4 D. Melgarejo
5 N. Gauto
10 N. Maná
11 L. Abreu
21 G. Viera
31 A. Morinigo
20 C. González
Coach · J. Arrúa
Substitutes
7 · N. Camacho
13 · Deivis Faustino Barone Mora
19 · A. Cano
1 · M. Dufour
22 · J. Gamarra
9 · O. Giménez
37 · L. Gonzalez
14 · S. Mendoza
29 · T. Rayer
2 · A. Ruiz Díaz
3 · D. Villalba
8 · L. de la Cruz
Libertad Asuncion
4-4-2
12 R. Morínigo
2 A. Benítez
5 G. Flores
31 T. Fernández
4 N. Giménez
26 I. Ramirez
8 F. Carrizo
21 L. Sanabria
7 A. Manzur
9 G. Aguilar
11 E. Vera
Coach · Nelson Valdez
Substitutes
24 · R. Villalba
15 · T. Vera
32 · L. Nequecaur
27 · A. Molinas
33 · C. Martínez
1 · Á. González
20 · H. Fernández
28 · M. Fernández
38 · J. Estigarribia Meza
35 · E. Diaz
30 · O. Acuña
22 · P. Villalba
We make Sportivo Trinidense a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 36%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Trinidense win | 37% | 30% | +7 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | +1 |
| Libertad Asuncion win | 34% | 42% | −8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 27% | −1 |
| Sportivo Trinidense or draw | 66% | 58% | +8 |
| Sportivo Trinidense clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
| Libertad Asuncion clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 6 Sept
SPORTIVO TRINIDENSE
LIBERTAD ASUNCION
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | +15 | 30 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | +1 | 28 |
| 4 | Libertad Asuncion | 14 | +7 | 27 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 14 | +10 | 24 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 14 | −1 | 18 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 14 | −13 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 15 | −10 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | −12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 14 | −18 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Olimpia
Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
Club Guarani
Cerro Porteno
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Luqueno
Rubio NU
Deportivo Recoleta
Club Sp. San Lorenzo