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Sportivo Trinidense v Libertad Asuncion

Sportivo Trinidense
1–0Full time
Libertad Asuncion

Division Profesional - Clausura · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Martin Torres

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 02:02
Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion SPORTIVO TRINIDENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sportivo Trinidense win37%
The market said30%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.597
The market’s Brier score0.751

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sportivo Trinidense win at 37%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Sportivo Trinidense 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Sportivo Trinidense v Libertad Asuncion
  4. 20′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
  5. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion
  6. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Sportivo Trinidense win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
  7. 23′Sportivo Trinidense ahead on 21′ through Clementino González. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–20–12
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–11
  9. 33′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Libertad Asuncion · On: J. Estigarribia Meza · Off: Nestor Gimenez
  10. 36′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion
  12. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Nicolás Maná · Sportivo Trinidense
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion
  14. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Libertad Asuncion · On: Hugo Fernandez · Off: Federico Carrizo
  15. 56′54′: Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez on the scoresheet for Libertad Asuncion. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  16. 57′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  17. 57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez · Libertad Asuncion
  18. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Lucas Sanabria · Libertad Asuncion
  19. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Tomás Ezequiel Rayer · Off: Luis Carlos Abreu Benegas
  20. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Gustavo Aguilar · Libertad Asuncion
  21. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Sportivo Trinidense win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
  22. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Clementino González · Sportivo Trinidense
  23. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredo · Off: Nicolás Maná
  24. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Libertad Asuncion · On: Luciano Nequecaur · Off: Ivan Emanuel Ramirez Ferreira
  25. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Libertad Asuncion · On: P. Villalba · Off: Agustín Manzur
  26. 68′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  27. 75′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  28. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Luciano Nequecaur · Libertad Asuncion
  29. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Sportivo Trinidense win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
  30. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Néstor Camacho · Off: Clementino González
  31. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sportivo Trinidense · On: David Villalba · Off: Alan Tobias Morinigo
  32. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Luis De la Cruz · Off: Nelson Ariel Gauto Castillo
  33. 81′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  34. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Libertad Asuncion · On: Rodrigo Acuña Vera · Off: Gustavo Aguilar
  35. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Hugo Fernandez · Libertad Asuncion
  36. 88′We said Sportivo Trinidense at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  37. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Sportivo Trinidense win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
  38. FTFULL TIME Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion
  39. FTSportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion · Sportivo Trinidense win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sportivo Trinidense just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportivo Trinidense 37%, draw 29%, Libertad Asuncion 34%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sportivo Trinidense v Libertad AsuncionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sportivo Trinidense win37%
Draw29%
Libertad Asuncion win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 23:20

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Martin Torres

RefereeDavid Ojeda

Line-ups

Sportivo Trinidense

4-1-4-1

Libertad Asuncion

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportivo Trinidense

Libertad Asuncion

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 11 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Libertad Asuncion14+727
5Sportivo Trinidense14+1024

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sportivo Trinidense

4-1-4-1

12 V. Samudio

23 C. Benítez

40 A. da Silveira

6 A. Cañete

4 D. Melgarejo

5 N. Gauto

10 N. Maná

11 L. Abreu

21 G. Viera

31 A. Morinigo

20 C. González

Coach · J. Arrúa

Substitutes

7 · N. Camacho

13 · Deivis Faustino Barone Mora

19 · A. Cano

1 · M. Dufour

22 · J. Gamarra

9 · O. Giménez

37 · L. Gonzalez

14 · S. Mendoza

29 · T. Rayer

2 · A. Ruiz Díaz

3 · D. Villalba

8 · L. de la Cruz

Libertad Asuncion

4-4-2

12 R. Morínigo

2 A. Benítez

5 G. Flores

31 T. Fernández

4 N. Giménez

26 I. Ramirez

8 F. Carrizo

21 L. Sanabria

7 A. Manzur

9 G. Aguilar

11 E. Vera

Coach · Nelson Valdez

Substitutes

24 · R. Villalba

15 · T. Vera

32 · L. Nequecaur

27 · A. Molinas

33 · C. Martínez

1 · Á. González

20 · H. Fernández

28 · M. Fernández

38 · J. Estigarribia Meza

35 · E. Diaz

30 · O. Acuña

22 · P. Villalba

Our number · sportivo trinidense winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:46 · locked at kick-off
37% The market30%
Us37%
Market30%

We make Sportivo Trinidense a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sportivo Trinidense v Libertad Asuncion1.32 – 1.26
Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 6 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 24 v 275 v 4
The market · Sportivo Trinidense win30% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 23:09
Our probability · Sportivo Trinidense win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sportivo Trinidense win37%30%+7
Draw29%28%+1
Libertad Asuncion win34%42%−8
Over 2.5 goals48%47%+1
Both teams to score53%52%+1
Over 1.5 goals74%71%+3
Over 3.5 goals26%27%−1
Sportivo Trinidense or draw66%58%+8
Sportivo Trinidense clean sheet29%––
Libertad Asuncion clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%
0123450 9.0 8.3 6.0 2.6 1 8.8 13.7 7.8 3.3 2 6.6 8.2 5.1 2.2 3 2.9 3.6 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sportivo Trinidense down, Libertad Asuncion across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.10
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsLIB 2–1 SPO · LIB 1–1 SPO · SPO 1–0 LIB · LIB 0–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 6 Sept

SPORTIVO TRINIDENSE

LWLWWD1–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

LIBERTAD ASUNCION

WWDLWD4–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Olimpia15+1530
2Nacional Asuncion15+1529
32 de Mayo15+128
4Libertad Asuncion14+727
5Sportivo Trinidense14+1024
6Club Guarani15+222
7Cerro Porteno14+420
8Sportivo Ameliano14−118
9Sportivo Luqueno14−1313
10Rubio NU15−1013
11Deportivo Recoleta15−1211
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo14−184

The competition's standings before kick-off.