Sportivo Luqueno v Nacional Asuncion prediction · Division Profesional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sportivo LuquenoDrawNacional Asuncion

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Nacional Asuncion 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nacional Asuncion are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportivo Luqueno 22%, draw 28%, Nacional Asuncion 50%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Sportivo Luqueno v Nacional AsuncionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sportivo Luqueno win22%

Draw28%

Nacional Asuncion win50%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 22:30

RoundClausura · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportivo Luqueno

Nacional Asuncion

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 24 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Nacional Asuncion	16	+14	29
9	Sportivo Luqueno	16	−13	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nacional asuncion winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Nacional Asuncion a 50% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sportivo Luqueno v Nacional Asuncion~~0.90 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 29~~9 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportivo Luqueno win	22%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Nacional Asuncion win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Sportivo Luqueno or draw	50%	–	–
Sportivo Luqueno clean sheet	23%	–	–
Nacional Asuncion clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.4 12.7 10.1 5.1 1 7.3 13.1 9.0 4.5 2 3.7 5.5 4.0 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportivo Luqueno down, Nacional Asuncion across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 712 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportivo Luqueno at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nacional Asuncion away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Sportivo Luqueno, 1.49 for Nacional Asuncion. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NAC 2–0 SPO · NAC 3–2 SPO · SPO 1–2 NAC · NAC 1–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 18 Sept

SPORTIVO LUQUENO

WLLLWL1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 0–1

NACIONAL ASUNCION

WDDWWL3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	15	+15	30
2	Libertad Asuncion	16	+7	30
3	Sportivo Trinidense	16	+12	30
4	Nacional Asuncion	16	+14	29
5	2 de Mayo	16	+1	29
6	Club Guarani	16	+4	25
7	Cerro Porteno	15	+4	21
8	Sportivo Ameliano	15	−1	19
9	Sportivo Luqueno	16	−13	16
10	Rubio NU	16	−12	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	16	−12	12
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	15	−19	4