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Sportivo Luqueno v Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Sportivo Luqueno
3–2Full time
Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Division Profesional - Clausura · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 02:02
Sportivo Luqueno 3–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo SPORTIVO LUQUENO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sportivo Luqueno win44%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.469
The market’s Brier score0.364

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 37 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sportivo Luqueno win at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Sportivo Luqueno was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sportivo Luqueno v Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  4. 7′We said Sportivo Luqueno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–57
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Sportivo Luqueno win: 44% at kick-off, 21% now
  7. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Club Sp. San Lorenzo win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Sportivo Luqueno win 21%)
  8. 8′Club Sp. San Lorenzo score on 7′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 20–23–57
  9. 13′We said Sportivo Luqueno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
  10. 29′PENALTY CANCELLED · 28' Sportivo Luqueno
  11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 15–24–61
  12. 33′We said Sportivo Luqueno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  13. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Sportivo Luqueno win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  14. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Walter González · Sportivo Luqueno
  15. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Sportivo Luqueno 1–1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  16. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Sportivo Luqueno win: 44% at kick-off, 36% now
  17. 43′Sportivo Luqueno level it on 42′ through Walter González. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–40–24
  18. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Club Sp. San Lorenzo win 24%)
  19. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordón · Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  20. 45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 11–24–65
  21. 45′Sportivo Luqueno have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 11–24–65
  22. 45′HALF-TIME Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  23. 46′SECOND HALF Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  24. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Club Sp. San Lorenzo · On: Ángel Benítez · Off: Gastón Gerzel
  25. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Club Sp. San Lorenzo · On: K. Fernández · Off: Elias Ortiz
  26. 49′9 shots for Sportivo Luqueno, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 34–43–23 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  27. 51′We said Sportivo Luqueno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  28. 51′⚽ GOAL · 45+6' Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  29. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+6' Sportivo Luqueno win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
  30. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+6' Club Sp. San Lorenzo win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
  31. 52′Franco Aragón scores for Club Sp. San Lorenzo on 45′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–24–68
  32. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Club Sp. San Lorenzo · On: Alexis Doldán · Off: Luis Cáceres
  33. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Samuel Beltrán · Off: Walter González
  34. 67′We said Sportivo Luqueno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  35. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Sportivo Luqueno win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
  36. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Alexis Cantero · Off: Axel Balbuena
  37. 68′Sportivo Luqueno have had 16 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  38. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Kevin Pereira · Off: Jonathan Vidal Ramos Benitez
  39. 75′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 18–69–13
  40. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Sportivo Luqueno 2–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  41. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Sportivo Luqueno win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
  42. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Club Sp. San Lorenzo win 13%)
  43. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Club Sp. San Lorenzo · On: Héctor Villamayor · Off: Hugo González
  44. 77′75′: M. Barreto on the scoresheet for Sportivo Luqueno, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 16–72–12
  45. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Franco Aragón · Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  46. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Sportivo Luqueno win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  47. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Teodoro Paredes · Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  48. 80′Sportivo Luqueno have had 20 attempts to 7 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 13–77–10
  49. 85′We published Sportivo Luqueno at 44%. Our model now makes it 94%. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  50. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Sportivo Luqueno 3–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  51. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Sportivo Luqueno win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  52. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Sportivo Luqueno win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
  53. 86′Sportivo Luqueno ahead on 84′ through Giovanni Bogado. 3–2. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  54. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Giovanni Bogado · Sportivo Luqueno
  55. 87′We published Sportivo Luqueno at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  56. 87′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  57. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Club Sp. San Lorenzo · On: Santiago Salcedo · Off: Franco Aragón
  58. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Aldo Maiz · Off: Marcelo Ojeda
  59. FTFULL TIME Sportivo Luqueno 3–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
  60. FTSportivo Luqueno 3–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo · Sportivo Luqueno win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sportivo Luqueno are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportivo Luqueno 44%, draw 29%, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 27%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Sportivo Luqueno v Club Sp. San LorenzoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sportivo Luqueno win44%
Draw29%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 23:20

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Feliciano Cáceres

RefereeMario Alberto Diaz De Vivar

Line-ups

Sportivo Luqueno

4-4-2

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportivo Luqueno

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

8Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Paraguay

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Sportivo Luqueno14−1313
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo14−184

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sportivo Luqueno

4-4-2

1 N. Campisi

22 S. Ocampos

2 M. Barreto

6 F. Wiechniak

28 A. Balbuena

21 M. Ojeda

14 F. Benitez

10 G. Bogado

25 J. Ramos

9 W. González

20 I. Maggi

Coach · Lucas Barrios

Substitutes

29 · T. Muro

23 · A. Cantero

8 · A. Maíz

34 · Á. Martínez

26 · O. Lopez

37 · L. Comas

7 · K. Pereira

19 · M. Pérez

30 · T. Franco

24 · S. Beltrán

3 · Á. Brizuela

40 · A. Espinola

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

4-4-2

31 L. Franco

29 M. Garcia

19 Luis Fernando Cáceres Maciel

5 T. Paredes

20 D. Meza Montiel

28 P. Gerzel

32 F. Aragón

21 H. Gonzalez

27 Elias Ortiz

23 M. Ferreira

9 J. Barrios

Coach · S. Orteman

Substitutes

24 · Matias Aguero

8 · R. Amarilla

33 · Gustavo Luis Centurion Villalba

39 · Lucas Andres Cohener Gonzalez

4 · A. Doldán

2 · L. Esteche

25 · K. Fernández

22 · K. Ferreira

13 · Isaias Fretes

7 · S. Salcedo

6 · H. Villamayor

16 · Á. Benítez

Our number · sportivo luqueno winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
44% The market51%
Us44%
Market51%

We make Sportivo Luqueno a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sportivo Luqueno v Club Sp. San Lorenzo1.44 – 1.08
Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 5 SeptW1 D0 L5 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 13 v 49 v 12
The market · Sportivo Luqueno win51% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 23:09
Our probability · Sportivo Luqueno win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sportivo Luqueno win44%51%−7
Draw29%27%+2
Club Sp. San Lorenzo win27%22%+5
Over 2.5 goals46%47%−1
Both teams to score51%51%0
Over 1.5 goals73%72%+1
Over 3.5 goals25%27%−2
Sportivo Luqueno or draw73%78%−5
Sportivo Luqueno clean sheet34%––
Club Sp. San Lorenzo clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%
0123450 9.5 7.5 4.7 1 10.4 13.6 6.7 2.4 2 8.3 8.8 4.8 3 4.0 4.3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sportivo Luqueno down, Club Sp. San Lorenzo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting1.80
Over 2.51 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsCLU 0–2 SPO · CLU 0–0 SPO · SPO 1–1 CLU · CLU 2–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 5 Sept

SPORTIVO LUQUENO

LLWLLL1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–3

CLUB SP. SAN LORENZO

LLLDDD1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Olimpia15+1530
2Nacional Asuncion15+1529
32 de Mayo15+128
4Libertad Asuncion14+727
5Sportivo Trinidense14+1024
6Club Guarani15+222
7Cerro Porteno14+420
8Sportivo Ameliano14−118
9Sportivo Luqueno14−1313
10Rubio NU15−1013
11Deportivo Recoleta15−1211
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo14−184

The competition's standings before kick-off.