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Sportivo Luqueno v Cerro Porteno

Sportivo Luqueno

0–3Full time

Cerro Porteno

Division Profesional - Clausura · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:00

Sportivo Luqueno 0–3 Cerro Porteno CERRO PORTENO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cerro Porteno win~~48%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.410

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.358

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cerro Porteno win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cerro Porteno 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
1′KICK-OFF Sportivo Luqueno v Cerro Porteno
2′Little has changed for our model: Cerro Porteno 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Cerro Porteno
12′⚽ GOAL · 13' Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Cerro Porteno
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Sportivo Luqueno 0–2 Cerro Porteno · Pablo Vegetti
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Sportivo Luqueno 0–2 Cerro Porteno · Lucas Merolla
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Lucas Ramón Barrios Cáceres · Sportivo Luqueno
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Derlis Osmar Rodríguez Maciel · Cerro Porteno
45′SECOND HALF Sportivo Luqueno 0–2 Cerro Porteno
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Axel Balbuena · Off: Alexis Cantero
46′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Dante Nicolas Campisi · Sportivo Luqueno
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Sportivo Luqueno 0–3 Cerro Porteno · Lucas Merolla
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cerro Porteno · On: Mateo Klimowicz · Off: Ignacio Aliseda
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cerro Porteno · On: Guillermo Benitez · Off: Blás Riveros
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Sportivo Luqueno 0–3 Cerro Porteno · Derlis Osmar Rodríguez Maciel
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Marcelo Ojeda · Off: Oscar Ruiz
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Lautaro Comas · Off: Aldo Maiz
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Marcelo Pérez · Off: Jonathan Vidal Ramos Benitez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cerro Porteno · On: Jonathan Gabriel Torres · Off: Pablo Vegetti
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cerro Porteno · On: Jorge Morel · Off: Pablo Gamarra
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Cerro Porteno · On: Gastón Giménez · Off: Cesar Bobadilla
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Gastón Giménez · Cerro Porteno
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Iván Maggi · Sportivo Luqueno
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Walter González · Off: Iván Maggi
FTFULL TIME Sportivo Luqueno 0–3 Cerro Porteno
FTSportivo Luqueno 0–3 Cerro Porteno · Cerro Porteno win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sportivo Luqueno win24%

Draw28%

Cerro Porteno win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 23:20

Venue · Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Referee · Juan Gabriel Benitez

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sportivo Luqueno

4-3-3

1 N. Campisi

22 S. Ocampos

2 M. Barreto

6 F. Wiechniak

23 A. Cantero

8 A. Maíz

10 G. Bogado

14 F. Benitez

11 Ó. Ruíz

20 I. Maggi

25 J. Ramos

Coach · Lucas Barrios

Substitutes

30 · T. Franco

28 · A. Balbuena

3 · Á. Brizuela

9 · W. González

12 · F. Mongelos

29 · T. Muro

21 · M. Ojeda

7 · K. Pereira

19 · M. Pérez

18 · F. Bobadilla

24 · S. Beltrán

37 · L. Comas

Cerro Porteno

4-1-4-1

12 A. Martínez

2 F. Domínguez

4 A. Cañete

6 L. Merolla

15 B. Riveros

14 L. Quintana

31 I. Aliseda

32 C. Bobadilla

18 A. Gamarra

7 D. Rodríguez

19 P. Vegetti

Coach · G. Costas

Substitutes

13 · G. Benítez

34 · C. Chena

28 · C. Franco

30 · G. Giménez

40 · M. Klimowicz

5 · J. Morel

16 · I. Ramírez

1 · M. Roffo

27 · J. Torres

23 · G. Velázquez

21 · S. Araújo

20 · E. Almendra

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sportivo Luqueno

4-3-3

1 N. Campisi

22 S. Ocampos

2 M. Barreto

6 F. Wiechniak

23 A. Cantero

8 A. Maíz

10 G. Bogado

14 F. Benitez

11 Ó. Ruíz

20 I. Maggi

25 J. Ramos

Coach · Lucas Barrios

Substitutes

30 · T. Franco

28 · A. Balbuena

3 · Á. Brizuela

9 · W. González

12 · F. Mongelos

29 · T. Muro

21 · M. Ojeda

7 · K. Pereira

19 · M. Pérez

18 · F. Bobadilla

24 · S. Beltrán

37 · L. Comas

Cerro Porteno

4-1-4-1

12 A. Martínez

2 F. Domínguez

4 A. Cañete

6 L. Merolla

15 B. Riveros

14 L. Quintana

31 I. Aliseda

32 C. Bobadilla

18 A. Gamarra

7 D. Rodríguez

19 P. Vegetti

Coach · G. Costas

Substitutes

13 · G. Benítez

34 · C. Chena

28 · C. Franco

30 · G. Giménez

40 · M. Klimowicz

5 · J. Morel

16 · I. Ramírez

1 · M. Roffo

27 · J. Torres

23 · G. Velázquez

21 · S. Araújo

20 · E. Almendra

Our number · cerro porteno winPublished 10 Oct 22:52

48% The market51%

Us48%

~~Market~~51%

We make Cerro Porteno a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cerro porteno win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportivo Luqueno win	24%	22%	+3
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Cerro Porteno win	48%	51%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	46%	+2
Both teams to score	52%	49%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	26%	+1
Sportivo Luqueno or draw	52%	49%	+3
Sportivo Luqueno clean sheet	21%	–	–
Cerro Porteno clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.9 10.3 8.9 4.7 1 6.5 13.2 9.2 4.8 2 4.1 6.2 4.8 2.5 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportivo Luqueno down, Cerro Porteno across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 696 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.78 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportivo Luqueno at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cerro Porteno away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Sportivo Luqueno, 1.56 for Cerro Porteno. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 22:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.78

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~1 of 9

~~Last meetings~~CER 3–0 SPO · SPO 0–1 CER · CER 0–0 SPO · SPO 1–0 CER

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura

SPORTIVO LUQUENO

DLLWLL2–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3

CERRO PORTENO

WWDWLL3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	13	+12	26
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	+7	26
3	2 de Mayo	13	+3	25
4	Nacional Asuncion	13	+12	23
5	Sportivo Trinidense	13	+10	23
6	Club Guarani	13	+4	21
7	Sportivo Ameliano	13	0	18
8	Cerro Porteno	13	+1	17
9	Sportivo Luqueno	13	−10	13
10	Rubio NU	13	−9	12
11	Deportivo Recoleta	13	−12	8
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	13	−18	3