Sportivo Ameliano v Olimpia prediction · Division Profesional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sportivo AmelianoDrawOlimpia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Olimpia 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olimpia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportivo Ameliano 27%, draw 28%, Olimpia 45%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Sportivo Ameliano v OlimpiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Sportivo Ameliano win27%

Draw28%

Olimpia win45%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstadio Jose Tomas Silva

RefereeCarlos P. Benitez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportivo Ameliano

Olimpia

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 17 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olimpia winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market53%

Us45%

~~Market~~53%

We make Olimpia a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sportivo Ameliano v Olimpia~~1.10 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 30~~8 v 1

~~The market · Olimpia win~~53% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olimpia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportivo Ameliano win	27%	22%	+5
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Olimpia win	45%	53%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Sportivo Ameliano or draw	55%	47%	+8
Sportivo Ameliano clean sheet	23%	–	–
Olimpia clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.7 10.2 8.3 4.2 1 7.2 13.2 9.0 4.5 2 4.5 6.6 4.9 2.5 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportivo Ameliano down, Olimpia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 710 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.8% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportivo Ameliano at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Olimpia away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Sportivo Ameliano, 1.50 for Olimpia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OLI 2–1 SPO · OLI 1–1 SPO · SPO 0–1 OLI · OLI 2–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept

SPORTIVO AMELIANO

WDDLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

OLIMPIA

WWWDDW3–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	15	+15	30
2	Libertad Asuncion	16	+7	30
3	Nacional Asuncion	15	+15	29
4	2 de Mayo	15	+1	28
5	Sportivo Trinidense	15	+11	27
6	Club Guarani	16	+4	25
7	Cerro Porteno	15	+4	21
8	Sportivo Ameliano	15	−1	19
9	Sportivo Luqueno	16	−13	16
10	Rubio NU	16	−12	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	15	−12	11
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	15	−19	4