Rubio NU v Olimpia prediction · Division Profesional

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Rubio NU 0–0 Olimpia OLIMPIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpia win~~49%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.874

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olimpia win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Olimpia 49% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 26–24–50
29′Little has changed for our model: Olimpia 49% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 25–31–45
45′10.0 shots for Olimpia, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 23–37–40
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Franco Alfonso · Olimpia
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Olimpia win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Olimpia · On: Rodney Redes · Off: Juan Fernando Alfaro
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Olimpia · On: Tiago Caballero · Off: Gabriel Ávalos
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Olimpia · On: Tim Payne · Off: Raúl Alejandro Cáceres Bogado
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rubio NU · On: Mariano Darío Ramos · Off: Sergio Fretes
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rubio NU · On: Steven·Perez · Off: Rodrigo Ruiz Díaz
96′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Tobías Leiva · Rubio NU
FTFULL TIME Rubio NU 0–0 Olimpia
FTRubio NU 0–0 Olimpia · Olimpia win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Rubio NU win25%

Draw27%

Olimpia win49%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

VenueEstadio La Arboleda

RefereeDerlis Benitez

Line-ups

Rubio NU

4-2-3-1

Olimpia

4-1-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rubio NU

Olimpia

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	13	+12	26
10	Rubio NU	13	−9	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rubio NU

4-2-3-1

25 Franco Fragueda

13 Victor Cabañas

3 Javier Vallejos

5 Pedro Alvarez

2 Rodi Ferreira

23 Tobías Leiva

15 Cristian Núñez

26 Sergio Fretes

29 Octavio Alfonso

35 Lucas Montiel

9 Rodrigo Ruiz Díaz

Coach · –

Substitutes

19 · Maximiliano Garrone

36 · Carlos Gimenez

8 · Rodrigo Rojas

14 · Mariano Ramos

40 · Estiven Pérez

32 · Lautaro Maldonado

16 · Jorge González

18 · Marcelo Acosta

7 · Elías Alfonso

17 · Kevin Paredes

11 · Mauricio Roldán

10 · William Mendieta

Olimpia

4-1-3-2

1 Gastón Olveira

27 Raúl Cáceres

22 Juan Vera

15 Mateo Gamarra

23 Esteban Matus

6 Richard Ortiz

7 Fernando Cardozo

5 Juan Fernando Alfaro

20 Eduardo Delmas

9 Gabriel Ávalos

11 Sebastián Ferreira

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · Franco Alfonso

17 · Rodney Redes

24 · Tiago Caballero

4 · Tim Payne

12 · Sebastián Lentinelly

14 · Gustavo Vargas

30 · Alan Rodríguez

33 · Pedro Zarza

18 · Sebastián Quintana

29 · Ivan Leguizamon

16 · Javier Domínguez

26 · Richard Sánchez

Our number · olimpia winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

49% The market53%

Us49%

~~Market~~53%

We make Olimpia a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olimpia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rubio NU win	25%	22%	+3
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Olimpia win	49%	53%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	49%	+4
Both teams to score	56%	51%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	73%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	32%	29%	+3
Rubio NU or draw	51%	47%	+4
Rubio NU clean sheet	19%	–	–
Olimpia clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.3 8.8 8.4 4.8 2.1 1 5.5 12.5 9.4 5.3 2.3 2 3.9 6.4 5.4 3.0 3 2.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rubio NU down, Olimpia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 698 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rubio NU at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Olimpia away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Rubio NU, 1.69 for Olimpia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~OLI 5–0 RUB

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura

RUBIO NU

WLLLDW3–1 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

OLIMPIA

DWWWWD1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	13	+12	26
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	+7	26
3	2 de Mayo	13	+3	25
4	Sportivo Trinidense	14	+10	24
5	Nacional Asuncion	13	+12	23
6	Club Guarani	13	+4	21
7	Cerro Porteno	14	+4	20
8	Sportivo Ameliano	13	0	18
9	Sportivo Luqueno	14	−13	13
10	Rubio NU	13	−9	12
11	Deportivo Recoleta	13	−12	8
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	14	−18	4