Rubio NU v Club Guarani prediction · Division Profesional

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 00:00

Rubio NU 0–2 Club Guarani CLUB GUARANI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club Guarani win~~47%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.430

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.547

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Guarani win at 47%.
2′Much as we predicted: Club Guarani was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 25–29–46
2′KICK-OFF Rubio NU v Club Guarani
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Cristian Leandro Allende · Club Guarani
29′PENALTY MISSED · 28' William Mendieta · Rubio NU
42′We published Club Guarani at 47%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 5–17–78
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Club Guarani win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Rubio NU 0–1 Club Guarani
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Club Guarani win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
43′42′: Jorge Recalde on the scoresheet for Club Guarani, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–17–78
44′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 5–17–78
45′HALF-TIME Rubio NU 0–1 Club Guarani
46′SECOND HALF Rubio NU 0–1 Club Guarani
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rubio NU · On: Steven·Perez · Off: Lucas Daniel Montiel Rodríguez
48′We published Club Guarani at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Rubio NU 0–2 Club Guarani
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Club Guarani win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
49′Club Guarani ahead on 47′ through Jorge Recalde. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Club Guarani win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Rubio NU · On: Marcelo Rubén Acosta Ríos · Off: Rodrigo Rojas
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Rubio NU · On: Mauricio De Carvalho González · Off: William Mendieta
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Rubio NU · On: A. Páez · Off: Rodrigo Ruiz Díaz
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Rubio NU · On: E. Alfonso · Off: Sergio Fretes
74′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Armando Méndez · Club Guarani
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Club Guarani · On: Victor·Cespedes · Off: Giovanni Emanuel Gómez Lezcano Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Club Guarani · On: Martín Maldonado · Off: Jorge Recalde
80′We published Club Guarani at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Club Guarani · On: J. Llano · Off: Maximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornells
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Club Guarani · On: Juan Manuel García · Off: Fernando Fernandez
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Club Guarani · On: Carlos Arrua · Off: L. Martínez
90′Full time, 0–2. We called Club Guarani at 47% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Rubio NU 0–2 Club Guarani
FTRubio NU 0–2 Club Guarani · Club Guarani win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Guarani are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rubio NU 25%, draw 29%, Club Guarani 47%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Rubio NU v Club GuaraniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Rubio NU win25%

Draw29%

Club Guarani win47%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstadio La Arboleda

RefereeAlipio Colman

Line-ups

Rubio NU

4-2-3-1

Club Guarani

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rubio NU

Club Guarani

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 17 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Club Guarani	15	+2	22
10	Rubio NU	15	−10	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rubio NU

4-2-3-1

32 L. Maldonado

31 B. Blasi

3 J. Vallejos

5 P. Álvarez

14 M. Ramos

8 R. Rojas

23 Tobías Leiva

26 S. Fretes

10 W. Mendieta

35 L. Montiel

9 R. Ruiz Díaz

Coach · –

Substitutes

18 · M. Acosta

7 · E. Alfonso

1 · T. Canteros

16 · J. González

27 · A. Ledesma

4 · H. Martínez

20 · A. Páez

40 · Estiven Osmar Pérez Yegros

11 · M. Roldán

30 · M. De Carvalho

15 · Lucas Gabriel Cañete Torres

13 · Jose Armando Martinez Ojeda

Club Guarani

4-1-4-1

31 M. Martínez

4 A. Méndez

2 I. Segovia

15 T. Servín

33 L. Allende

36 L. Martínez

10 M. Añasco

40 F. Fernández

25 G. Gómez

26 D. Fernández

9 J. Recalde

Coach · F. Arce

Substitutes

16 · Jonatan Marcelo Benítez Otazú

21 · C. Arrúa

38 · P. Corone

17 · V. Céspedes

12 · G. Dionisi

11 · J. García

23 · M. Jacquet

29 · F. Llano

34 · M. Maldonado

37 · J. Pérez

14 · R. Rodríguez

18 · T. Romero

Our number · club guarani winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market40%

Us47%

~~Market~~40%

We make Club Guarani a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rubio NU v Club Guarani~~0.99 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 22~~10 v 6

~~The market · Club Guarani win~~40% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club Guarani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rubio NU win	25%	31%	−6
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Club Guarani win	47%	40%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	44%	41%	+3
Both teams to score	49%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	66%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	22%	+1
Rubio NU or draw	53%	60%	−7
Rubio NU clean sheet	24%	–	–
Club Guarani clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.0 11.5 9.1 4.4 1 7.5 13.5 8.9 4.3 2 4.3 6.1 4.4 2.2 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rubio NU down, Club Guarani across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 708 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.9% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rubio NU at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Club Guarani away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Rubio NU, 1.45 for Club Guarani. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CLU 2–3 RUB · RUB 0–2 CLU · CLU 4–0 RUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 12 Sept

RUBIO NU

LLDWDL0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

CLUB GUARANI

DWWDDL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	15	+15	30
2	Nacional Asuncion	15	+15	29
3	2 de Mayo	15	+1	28
4	Sportivo Trinidense	15	+11	27
5	Libertad Asuncion	15	+6	27
6	Club Guarani	15	+2	22
7	Cerro Porteno	15	+4	21
8	Sportivo Ameliano	15	−1	19
9	Sportivo Luqueno	15	−12	16
10	Rubio NU	15	−10	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	15	−12	11
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	15	−19	4