Olimpia v 2 de Mayo prediction · Division Profesional

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Olimpia 3–0 2 de Mayo OLIMPIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpia win~~45%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.457

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.187

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olimpia win at 45%.
2′Much as we predicted: Olimpia was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
2′KICK-OFF Olimpia v 2 de Mayo
6′We published Olimpia at 45%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Olimpia 1–0 2 de Mayo
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Olimpia win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
7′Olimpia ahead on 6′ through Gabriel Ávalos. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
19′We published Olimpia at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Olimpia win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Juan Fernando Alfaro · Olimpia
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
33′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Olimpia · On: Gustavo David Vargas Areco · Off: Juan Vera
45′SECOND HALF Olimpia 1–0 2 de Mayo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' 2 de Mayo · On: Tobías Sanabria Panotto · Off: Luis Delgadillo
48′HALF-TIME Olimpia 1–0 2 de Mayo
54′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Alexis Fariña · 2 de Mayo
56′We published Olimpia at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' 2 de Mayo · On: Alexis Villalba · Off: Alberto Espinola
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Olimpia · On: Bernardo Romeo Benitez Farina · Off: Sebastián Ferreira
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' 2 de Mayo · On: F. Cáceres · Off: Alexis Fariña
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' 2 de Mayo · On: Tobías Gabriel Portillo Ávalos · Off: Pedro Delvalle
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Olimpia · On: Tiago Caballero · Off: Gabriel Ávalos
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Olimpia · On: Franco Alfonso · Off: Eduardo Delmas
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Olimpia · On: Rodney Redes · Off: Juan Fernando Alfaro
70′We published Olimpia at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Olimpia win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Ó. Romero · 2 de Mayo
80′We published Olimpia at 45%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
85′We published Olimpia at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Olimpia 2–0 2 de Mayo
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Olimpia win: 45% at kick-off, over 99% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' 2 de Mayo · On: Jorge Sanguina · Off: Tobias Cervera
87′Mateo Gamarra scores for Olimpia on 85′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Tiago Caballero · Olimpia
95′Full time, 3–0. We called Olimpia at 45% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Olimpia 3–0 2 de Mayo
FTOlimpia 3–0 2 de Mayo · Olimpia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olimpia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olimpia 45%, draw 29%, 2 de Mayo 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Olimpia v 2 de MayoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Olimpia win45%

Draw29%

2 de Mayo win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 23:20

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Manuel Ferreira

RefereeBlas Romero

Line-ups

Olimpia

4-1-3-2

2 de Mayo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olimpia

2 de Mayo

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 12 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Olimpia

4-1-3-2

1 G. Olveira

27 R. Cáceres

22 J. Vera

15 M. Gamarra

23 E. Matus

6 R. Ortiz

7 F. Cardozo

5 J. Alfaro

20 E. Delmás

11 S. Ferreira

9 G. Ávalos

Coach · P. Sánchez

Substitutes

8 · A. Franco

2 · B. Bentaberry

24 · T. Caballero

29 · I. Leguizamón

12 · S. Lentinelly

17 · R. Redes

37 · R. Benitez

14 · G. Vargas

26 · R. Sánchez

30 · A. Rodríguez

4 · T. Payne

35 · F. Alfonso

2 de Mayo

4-2-3-1

1 D. Lerda

23 A. Espínola

21 P. Sosa

6 C. Ramírez

19 C. Castro

24 Ó. Romero

37 L. Delgadillo

10 A. Gómez

30 A. Fariña

17 P. Delvalle

25 A. Cervera

Coach · Eduardo Ledesma

Substitutes

32 · Mario Ramírez

22 · T. Portillo

2 · Rodrigo Antonio Gómez Villalba

40 · Marcelo González

20 · E. Díaz

7 · F. Cáceres

11 · U. Coronel

8 · Á. Aguilera

5 · C. Saiz

4 · Tobías Sanabria Panotto

9 · J. Sanguina

3 · A. Villalba

Our number · olimpia winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market65%

Us45%

~~Market~~65%

We make Olimpia a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olimpia v 2 de Mayo~~1.42 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 28~~2 v 1

~~The market · Olimpia win~~65% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olimpia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olimpia win	45%	65%	−20
Draw	29%	22%	+7
2 de Mayo win	26%	13%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	44%	52%	−8
Both teams to score	50%	47%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	75%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	31%	−8
Olimpia or draw	74%	87%	−13
Olimpia clean sheet	36%	–	–
2 de Mayo clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.1 7.6 4.6 1 11.0 13.7 6.4 2.2 2 8.7 8.8 4.5 3 4.2 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olimpia down, 2 de Mayo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 703 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olimpia at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). 2 de Mayo away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Olimpia, 1.02 for 2 de Mayo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 23:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEM 1–0 OLI · OLI 4–1 DEM · DEM 1–1 OLI · OLI 3–3 DEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 5 Sept

OLIMPIA

WWWWDD2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

2 DE MAYO

WLLDWW2–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	2 de Mayo	14	+4	28
2	Olimpia	14	+12	27
3	Libertad Asuncion	14	+7	27
4	Nacional Asuncion	14	+13	26
5	Sportivo Trinidense	14	+10	24
6	Club Guarani	14	+4	22
7	Cerro Porteno	14	+4	20
8	Sportivo Ameliano	14	−1	18
9	Sportivo Luqueno	14	−13	13
10	Rubio NU	15	−10	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	15	−12	11
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	14	−18	4