Nacional Asuncion v Sportivo Trinidense prediction · Division Profesional

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:31

Nacional Asuncion 0–1 Sportivo Trinidense NACIONAL ASUNCION WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nacional Asuncion win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.859

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.718

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nacional Asuncion win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nacional Asuncion 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–25
1′KICK-OFF Nacional Asuncion v Sportivo Trinidense
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Nelson Ariel Gauto Castillo · Sportivo Trinidense
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' José Gabriel Arrúa Ovelar · Sportivo Trinidense
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Nacional Asuncion win 38%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Nacional Asuncion win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′Sportivo Trinidense have had 11 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–45–21
45′HALF-TIME Nacional Asuncion 0–0 Sportivo Trinidense
46′SECOND HALF Nacional Asuncion 0–0 Sportivo Trinidense
50′We said Nacional Asuncion at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–48–20
54′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Hugo Adrián Benítez · Nacional Asuncion
56′We said Nacional Asuncion at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredo · Off: Nicolás Maná
65′We said Nacional Asuncion at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Nacional Asuncion win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Nacional Asuncion · On: Ignacio Bailone · Off: Hugo Valdez
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Sergio Mendoza · Off: Diego Melgarejo
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Luis De la Cruz · Off: Luis Carlos Abreu Benegas
73′We said Nacional Asuncion at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–69–12
75′We said Nacional Asuncion at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–15–83
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Nacional Asuncion 0–1 Sportivo Trinidense
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Nacional Asuncion win: 44% at kick-off, 2% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Sportivo Trinidense win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 71%)
77′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredo · Sportivo Trinidense
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Nacional Asuncion win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Sportivo Trinidense win 84%)
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Mauro Alexis Coronel Gomez · Nacional Asuncion
79′We said Nacional Asuncion at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–78–9
80′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Thomas Gutierrez · Nacional Asuncion
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Nacional Asuncion · On: Orlando Gaona Lugo · Off: Fabrizio Jara
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Nacional Asuncion · On: Matías Facundo Almeida Martínez · Off: Josué Colmán
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Deivis Faustino Barone Mora · Off: Clementino González
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Néstor Camacho · Off: Nelson Ariel Gauto Castillo
84′We said Nacional Asuncion at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–87–5
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Rodrigo Melgarejo · Nacional Asuncion
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Nacional Asuncion win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
93′Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredo scores for Sportivo Trinidense on 90′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Nacional Asuncion 0–1 Sportivo Trinidense
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Sportivo Trinidense win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 95%)
FTFULL TIME Nacional Asuncion 0–1 Sportivo Trinidense
FTNacional Asuncion 0–1 Sportivo Trinidense · Nacional Asuncion win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nacional Asuncion are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nacional Asuncion 44%, draw 31%, Sportivo Trinidense 25%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Nacional Asuncion v Sportivo TrinidenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Nacional Asuncion win44%

Draw31%

Sportivo Trinidense win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstádio Arsenio Erico

RefereeBlas Romero

Line-ups

Nacional Asuncion

4-1-4-1

Sportivo Trinidense

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nacional Asuncion

Sportivo Trinidense

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 18 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Nacional Asuncion	15	+15	29
5	Sportivo Trinidense	15	+11	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nacional Asuncion

4-1-4-1

30 S. Rojas

23 C. Espínola

22 R. Melgarejo

3 M. Coronel

29 S. Vargas

15 Á. Cardozo Lucena

18 I. Valdez

8 F. Jara

13 L. Meza

10 J. Colmán

9 H. Benítez

Coach · V. Bernay

Substitutes

7 · I. Bailone

11 · Matías Facundo Almeida Martínez

38 · T. Vega

5 · G. Benítez

35 · Elias Enrique Villlar Fleitas

33 · O. Gaona

4 · T. Gutiérrez

36 · F. Pelozo

32 · F. Pumpido

25 · Roberto Carlos Ramírez Antúnez

17 · J. Santacruz

6 · S. Torales

Sportivo Trinidense

4-2-3-1

12 V. Samudio

23 C. Benítez

40 A. da Silveira

6 A. Cañete

4 D. Melgarejo

5 N. Gauto

21 G. Viera

10 N. Maná

11 L. Abreu

31 A. Morinigo

20 C. González

Coach · J. Arrúa

Substitutes

13 · Deivis Faustino Barone Mora

7 · N. Camacho

19 · A. Cano

30 · R. Cornet

1 · M. Dufour

22 · J. Gamarra

9 · O. Giménez

37 · L. Gonzalez

14 · S. Mendoza

2 · A. Ruiz Díaz

3 · D. Villalba

8 · L. de la Cruz

Our number · nacional asuncion winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Nacional Asuncion a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nacional Asuncion v Sportivo Trinidense~~1.28 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 29 v 27~~3 v 5

~~The market · Nacional Asuncion win~~40% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nacional Asuncion win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nacional Asuncion win	44%	40%	+4
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Sportivo Trinidense win	25%	31%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	65%	68%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	17%	24%	−7
Nacional Asuncion or draw	75%	69%	+6
Nacional Asuncion clean sheet	42%	–	–
Sportivo Trinidense clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 12.8 9.1 4.5 1 13.6 13.9 5.7 2 9.4 8.2 3.6 3 4.0 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nacional Asuncion down, Sportivo Trinidense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 710 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.8% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nacional Asuncion at home: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sportivo Trinidense away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Nacional Asuncion, 0.88 for Sportivo Trinidense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–1 NAC · NAC 2–1 SPO · SPO 1–1 NAC · NAC 0–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 12 Sept

NACIONAL ASUNCION

WWDDWW1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

SPORTIVO TRINIDENSE

WLWWDW3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	15	+15	30
2	Libertad Asuncion	16	+7	30
3	Nacional Asuncion	15	+15	29
4	2 de Mayo	15	+1	28
5	Sportivo Trinidense	15	+11	27
6	Club Guarani	16	+4	25
7	Cerro Porteno	15	+4	21
8	Sportivo Ameliano	15	−1	19
9	Sportivo Luqueno	16	−13	16
10	Rubio NU	16	−12	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	15	−12	11
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	15	−19	4