Nacional Asuncion v Deportivo Recoleta prediction · Division Profesional

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 02:00

Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta NACIONAL ASUNCION WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nacional Asuncion win~~55%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.312

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.332

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nacional Asuncion win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Nacional Asuncion v Deportivo Recoleta
2′Much as we predicted: Nacional Asuncion was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–20
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Pedro David Ríos Galeano · Deportivo Recoleta
44′PENALTY MISSED · 43' Hugo Adrián Benítez · Nacional Asuncion
45′HALF-TIME Nacional Asuncion 0–0 Deportivo Recoleta
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Recoleta · On: José Espínola · Off: Ronal Iván Domínguez Colmán
46′SECOND HALF Nacional Asuncion 0–0 Deportivo Recoleta
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Deportivo Recoleta · On: R. Ortiz · Off: Renzo José Martino Campuzano
53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Manuel Shupp Astigarraga · Off: Wilfrido Baez
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta · Leandro Meza
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Juan Franco · Deportivo Recoleta
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Nacional Asuncion · On: Gaston Benitez · Off: Sebastian Vargas
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nacional Asuncion · On: Jordan·Santacruz · Off: Leandro Meza
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nacional Asuncion · On: Ignacio Bailone · Off: Hugo Adrián Benítez
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Thiago Vidal · Off: Aldo Walmor González Román
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Kevin Daniel Parzajuk Rodríguez · Off: R. Ortiz
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Nacional Asuncion · On: Hugo Valdez · Off: Josué Colmán Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Nacional Asuncion · On: Roberto Carlos Ramírez Antúnez · Off: Fabrizio Jara Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Rodrigo Melgarejo · Nacional Asuncion
FTFULL TIME Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta
FTNacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta · Nacional Asuncion win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 23:00 · locked at kick-off

Nacional Asuncion win55%

Draw27%

Deportivo Recoleta win18%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 23:20

VenueEstádio Arsenio Erico

RefereeMario Alberto Diaz De Vivar

Line-ups

Nacional Asuncion

4-2-3-1

Deportivo Recoleta

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nacional Asuncion

Deportivo Recoleta

6Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Nacional Asuncion	13	+12	23
11	Deportivo Recoleta	13	−12	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nacional Asuncion

4-2-3-1

30 S. Rojas

23 C. Espínola

22 R. Melgarejo

3 M. Coronel

29 S. Vargas

8 F. Jara

15 Á. Cardozo Lucena

33 O. Gaona

13 L. Meza

10 J. Colmán

9 H. Benítez

Coach · V. Bernay

Substitutes

20 · Rodolfo Arguello

11 · Matías Facundo Almeida Martínez

7 · I. Bailone

5 · G. Benítez

39 · D. Caballero

36 · F. Pelozo

32 · F. Pumpido

25 · Roberto Carlos Ramírez Antúnez

17 · J. Santacruz

18 · I. Valdez

38 · T. Vega

35 · Elias Enrique Villlar Fleitas

Deportivo Recoleta

4-4-2

13 O. Toledo

2 F. A. Echeguren Zarza

5 N. Marotta

32 L. Monzón

18 P. Rios

36 B. Ferreira

7 R. Domínguez

38 J. Franco

17 W. Báez

25 Renzo José Martino Campuzano

33 A. González

Coach · J. González

Substitutes

8 · F. Galeano

21 · C. Garay

1 · A. Marsegno

15 · B. Medina

23 · J. Núñez

9 · R. Ortiz

11 · K. Parzajuk

4 · M. Pereira

31 · M. Shupp

10 · A. Silva

24 · T. Vidal

6 · J. Espínola

Our number · nacional asuncion winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 23:00 · locked at kick-off

55% The market53%

Us55%

~~Market~~53%

We make Nacional Asuncion a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nacional asuncion win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nacional Asuncion win	55%	53%	+2
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Deportivo Recoleta win	18%	21%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	30%	−5
Nacional Asuncion or draw	82%	79%	+3
Nacional Asuncion clean sheet	42%	–	–
Deportivo Recoleta clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.6 5.6 3.0 1 11.9 12.7 4.9 2 10.9 9.4 4.1 3 6.1 5.2 2.3 4 2.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nacional Asuncion down, Deportivo Recoleta across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 700 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nacional Asuncion at home: 1.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Recoleta away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Nacional Asuncion, 0.87 for Deportivo Recoleta. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 22:59. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DEP 3–2 NAC · DEP 0–0 NAC · NAC 1–0 DEP

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura

NACIONAL ASUNCION

WLWWDD3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

DEPORTIVO RECOLETA

LLLLDL1–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	14	+12	27
2	Libertad Asuncion	14	+7	27
3	2 de Mayo	13	+3	25
4	Sportivo Trinidense	14	+10	24
5	Nacional Asuncion	13	+12	23
6	Club Guarani	14	+4	22
7	Cerro Porteno	14	+4	20
8	Sportivo Ameliano	13	0	18
9	Rubio NU	14	−9	13
10	Sportivo Luqueno	14	−13	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	13	−12	8
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	14	−18	4