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Libertad Asuncion v Sportivo Luqueno
Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura · FRI 23 OCT · Dr. Nicolás Leoz
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Libertad Asuncion win at 55%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Libertad Asuncion was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
- 1′KICK-OFF Libertad Asuncion v Sportivo Luqueno
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Libertad Asuncion win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
- 43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Sportivo Luqueno
- 45′HALF-TIME Libertad Asuncion 0–0 Sportivo Luqueno
- 45′SECOND HALF Libertad Asuncion 0–0 Sportivo Luqueno
- 46′We said Libertad Asuncion at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–37–20
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Adrián Brizuela · Off: M. Barreto
- 54′We said Libertad Asuncion at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
- 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Alvaro Campuzado · Libertad Asuncion
- 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 39–43–18
- 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Libertad Asuncion · On: Ivan Emanuel Ramirez Ferreira · Off: Gustavo Aguilar
- 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Libertad Asuncion · On: Lorenzo Melgarejo · Off: Hugo Fernandez
- 56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Libertad Asuncion · On: Federico Carrizo · Off: Lucas Sanabria
- 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Libertad Asuncion win 41%)
- 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Aldo Maiz · Off: Samuel Beltrán
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Libertad Asuncion win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
- 63′We said Libertad Asuncion at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–17
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Libertad Asuncion · On: J. Estigarribia Meza · Off: Nestor Gimenez
- 69′We said Libertad Asuncion at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
- 70′Sportivo Luqueno have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 28–58–14
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Walter González · Off: Iván Maggi
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Kevin Pereira · Off: Marcelo Ojeda
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Lautaro Comas · Off: Jonathan Vidal Ramos Benitez
- 72′Libertad Asuncion ahead on 71′ through Lorenzo Melgarejo. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–1
- 72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno · Lorenzo Melgarejo
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Libertad Asuncion win: 55% at kick-off, 86% now
- 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Libertad Asuncion win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 60%)
- 74′We published Libertad Asuncion at 55%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–1
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Libertad Asuncion · On: Rodrigo Villalba · Off: Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez
- 79′We published Libertad Asuncion at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Lucas Ramón Barrios Cáceres · Sportivo Luqueno
- 86′We published Libertad Asuncion at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Libertad Asuncion
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Libertad Asuncion win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
- 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Fernando Benitez Aguirre · Sportivo Luqueno
- 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Walter González · Sportivo Luqueno
- 90′Sportivo Luqueno have had 16 attempts to 9 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
- 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Rodrigo Villalba · Libertad Asuncion
- FTFULL TIME Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno
- FTLibertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno · Libertad Asuncion win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Libertad Asuncion are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Libertad Asuncion 55%, draw 24%, Sportivo Luqueno 20%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off
Libertad Asuncion win55%
Sportivo Luqueno win20%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 23:30
RoundClausura · matchday 16
VenueDr. Nicolás Leoz
RefereeJuan Gabriel Benitez
Match timeline
All events
Libertad AsuncionMIN
Sportivo LuquenoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Libertad Asuncion
4-4-2
Sportivo Luqueno
4-3-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
Last match: 18 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura
Last match: 18 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Libertad Asuncion
4-4-2
12 R. Morínigo
2 A. Benítez
5 G. Flores
31 T. Fernández
4 N. Giménez
20 H. Fernández
6 Á. Campuzano
21 L. Sanabria
19 I. Franco
9 G. Aguilar
11 E. Vera
Coach · Nelson Valdez
Substitutes
7 · A. Manzur
23 · N. Freire
28 · M. Fernández
38 · J. Estigarribia Meza
8 · F. Carrizo
1 · Á. González
33 · C. Martínez
10 · L. Melgarejo
32 · L. Nequecaur
26 · I. Ramirez
22 · P. Villalba
24 · R. Villalba
Sportivo Luqueno
4-3-3
1 N. Campisi
22 S. Ocampos
2 M. Barreto
6 F. Wiechniak
23 A. Cantero
14 F. Benitez
10 G. Bogado
24 S. Beltrán
21 M. Ojeda
20 I. Maggi
25 J. Ramos
Coach · Lucas Barrios
Substitutes
28 · A. Balbuena
18 · F. Bobadilla
3 · Á. Brizuela
37 · L. Comas
40 · A. Espinola
30 · T. Franco
9 · W. González
26 · O. Lopez
8 · A. Maíz
29 · T. Muro
7 · K. Pereira
19 · M. Pérez
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Libertad Asuncion
4-4-2
12 R. Morínigo
2 A. Benítez
5 G. Flores
31 T. Fernández
4 N. Giménez
20 H. Fernández
6 Á. Campuzano
21 L. Sanabria
19 I. Franco
9 G. Aguilar
11 E. Vera
Coach · Nelson Valdez
Substitutes
7 · A. Manzur
23 · N. Freire
28 · M. Fernández
38 · J. Estigarribia Meza
8 · F. Carrizo
1 · Á. González
33 · C. Martínez
10 · L. Melgarejo
32 · L. Nequecaur
26 · I. Ramirez
22 · P. Villalba
24 · R. Villalba
Sportivo Luqueno
4-3-3
1 N. Campisi
22 S. Ocampos
2 M. Barreto
6 F. Wiechniak
23 A. Cantero
14 F. Benitez
10 G. Bogado
24 S. Beltrán
21 M. Ojeda
20 I. Maggi
25 J. Ramos
Coach · Lucas Barrios
Substitutes
28 · A. Balbuena
18 · F. Bobadilla
3 · Á. Brizuela
37 · L. Comas
40 · A. Espinola
30 · T. Franco
9 · W. González
26 · O. Lopez
8 · A. Maíz
29 · T. Muro
7 · K. Pereira
19 · M. Pérez
We make Libertad Asuncion a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad Asuncion win | 55% | 62% | −7 |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | +2 |
| Sportivo Luqueno win | 20% | 16% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 33% | 0 |
| Libertad Asuncion or draw | 80% | 84% | −4 |
| Libertad Asuncion clean sheet | 35% | – | – |
| Sportivo Luqueno clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept
LIBERTAD ASUNCION
SPORTIVO LUQUENO
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | +15 | 30 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | +1 | 28 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | +11 | 27 |
| 5 | Libertad Asuncion | 15 | +6 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | +4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | −1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 15 | −12 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 15 | −10 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | −12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | −19 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Olimpia
Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
Sportivo Trinidense
Club Guarani
Cerro Porteno
Sportivo Ameliano
Rubio NU
Deportivo Recoleta
Club Sp. San Lorenzo