Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Division Profesional - Clausura › Libertad Asuncion v Sportivo Luqueno

Back
Paraguay flag

Libertad Asuncion v Sportivo Luqueno

Libertad Asuncion
1–0Full time
Sportivo Luqueno

Division Profesional - Clausura · FRI 23 OCT · Dr. Nicolás Leoz

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 02:00
Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno LIBERTAD ASUNCION WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Libertad Asuncion win55%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.301
The market’s Brier score0.219

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Libertad Asuncion win at 55%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Libertad Asuncion was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Libertad Asuncion v Sportivo Luqueno
  4. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Libertad Asuncion win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  5. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Sportivo Luqueno
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Libertad Asuncion 0–0 Sportivo Luqueno
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Libertad Asuncion 0–0 Sportivo Luqueno
  8. 46′We said Libertad Asuncion at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–37–20
  9. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Adrián Brizuela · Off: M. Barreto
  10. 54′We said Libertad Asuncion at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
  11. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Alvaro Campuzado · Libertad Asuncion
  12. 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 39–43–18
  13. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Libertad Asuncion · On: Ivan Emanuel Ramirez Ferreira · Off: Gustavo Aguilar
  14. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Libertad Asuncion · On: Lorenzo Melgarejo · Off: Hugo Fernandez
  15. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Libertad Asuncion · On: Federico Carrizo · Off: Lucas Sanabria
  16. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Libertad Asuncion win 41%)
  17. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Aldo Maiz · Off: Samuel Beltrán
  18. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Libertad Asuncion win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
  19. 63′We said Libertad Asuncion at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–17
  20. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Libertad Asuncion · On: J. Estigarribia Meza · Off: Nestor Gimenez
  21. 69′We said Libertad Asuncion at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
  22. 70′Sportivo Luqueno have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 28–58–14
  23. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Walter González · Off: Iván Maggi
  24. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Kevin Pereira · Off: Marcelo Ojeda
  25. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sportivo Luqueno · On: Lautaro Comas · Off: Jonathan Vidal Ramos Benitez
  26. 72′Libertad Asuncion ahead on 71′ through Lorenzo Melgarejo. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–1
  27. 72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno · Lorenzo Melgarejo
  28. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Libertad Asuncion win: 55% at kick-off, 86% now
  29. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Libertad Asuncion win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 60%)
  30. 74′We published Libertad Asuncion at 55%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–1
  31. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Libertad Asuncion · On: Rodrigo Villalba · Off: Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez
  32. 79′We published Libertad Asuncion at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  33. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Lucas Ramón Barrios Cáceres · Sportivo Luqueno
  34. 86′We published Libertad Asuncion at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  35. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Libertad Asuncion
  36. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Libertad Asuncion win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
  37. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Fernando Benitez Aguirre · Sportivo Luqueno
  38. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Walter González · Sportivo Luqueno
  39. 90′Sportivo Luqueno have had 16 attempts to 9 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
  40. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Rodrigo Villalba · Libertad Asuncion
  41. FTFULL TIME Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno
  42. FTLibertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno · Libertad Asuncion win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Libertad Asuncion are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Libertad Asuncion 55%, draw 24%, Sportivo Luqueno 20%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Libertad Asuncion v Sportivo LuquenoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Libertad Asuncion win55%
Draw24%
Sportivo Luqueno win20%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 23:30

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueDr. Nicolás Leoz

RefereeJuan Gabriel Benitez

Line-ups

Libertad Asuncion

4-4-2

Sportivo Luqueno

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Libertad Asuncion

Sportivo Luqueno

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 18 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Libertad Asuncion15+627
9Sportivo Luqueno15−1216

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Libertad Asuncion

4-4-2

12 R. Morínigo

2 A. Benítez

5 G. Flores

31 T. Fernández

4 N. Giménez

20 H. Fernández

6 Á. Campuzano

21 L. Sanabria

19 I. Franco

9 G. Aguilar

11 E. Vera

Coach · Nelson Valdez

Substitutes

7 · A. Manzur

23 · N. Freire

28 · M. Fernández

38 · J. Estigarribia Meza

8 · F. Carrizo

1 · Á. González

33 · C. Martínez

10 · L. Melgarejo

32 · L. Nequecaur

26 · I. Ramirez

22 · P. Villalba

24 · R. Villalba

Sportivo Luqueno

4-3-3

1 N. Campisi

22 S. Ocampos

2 M. Barreto

6 F. Wiechniak

23 A. Cantero

14 F. Benitez

10 G. Bogado

24 S. Beltrán

21 M. Ojeda

20 I. Maggi

25 J. Ramos

Coach · Lucas Barrios

Substitutes

28 · A. Balbuena

18 · F. Bobadilla

3 · Á. Brizuela

37 · L. Comas

40 · A. Espinola

30 · T. Franco

9 · W. González

26 · O. Lopez

8 · A. Maíz

29 · T. Muro

7 · K. Pereira

19 · M. Pérez

Our number · libertad asuncion winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off
55% The market62%
Us55%
Market62%

We make Libertad Asuncion a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Libertad Asuncion v Sportivo Luqueno1.87 – 1.05
Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 27 v 165 v 9
The market · Libertad Asuncion win62% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 20 OCT 16:0123 OCT 23:13
Our probability · Libertad Asuncion win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Libertad Asuncion win55%62%−7
Draw24%22%+2
Sportivo Luqueno win20%16%+4
Over 2.5 goals56%53%+3
Both teams to score55%50%+5
Over 1.5 goals79%75%+4
Over 3.5 goals33%33%0
Libertad Asuncion or draw80%84%−4
Libertad Asuncion clean sheet35%––
Sportivo Luqueno clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 6.6 4.8 3.0 1 9.2 11.5 5.5 2 9.4 9.7 5.1 3 5.8 6.0 3.2 4 2.8 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Libertad Asuncion down, Sportivo Luqueno across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.30
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsSPO 1–2 LIB · SPO 2–3 LIB · LIB 1–0 SPO · SPO 1–4 LIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept

LIBERTAD ASUNCION

WDLWDL2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

SPORTIVO LUQUENO

LWLLLW0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 3–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Olimpia15+1530
2Nacional Asuncion15+1529
32 de Mayo15+128
4Sportivo Trinidense15+1127
5Libertad Asuncion15+627
6Club Guarani15+222
7Cerro Porteno15+421
8Sportivo Ameliano15−119
9Sportivo Luqueno15−1216
10Rubio NU15−1013
11Deportivo Recoleta15−1211
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo15−194

The competition's standings before kick-off.