Libertad Asuncion v Club Guarani prediction · Division Profesional

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 02:00

Libertad Asuncion 2–2 Club Guarani LIBERTAD ASUNCION WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Libertad Asuncion win~~36%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.717

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.784

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Libertad Asuncion win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Libertad Asuncion 36% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–35
20′16′ and it is 1–0: Gustavo Aguilar on the scoresheet for Libertad Asuncion. 1–0 · 67–21–11
22′Club Guarani ahead on 21′ through Maximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornells. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–33–32
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 35% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 67% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 35% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 67% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 35% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 67% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 35% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 67% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 35% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 67% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 35% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 67% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 35% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Libertad Asuncion win: 36% at kick-off, 67% now
45′HALF-TIME Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Club Guarani
45′SECOND HALF Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Club Guarani
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Libertad Asuncion 1–2 Club Guarani · Maximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornells
57′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Club Guarani · On: Diego·Fernandez · Off: Martín Maldonado
57′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Libertad Asuncion · On: Thiago Ismael Fernández Martínez · Off: Robert Rojas
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Libertad Asuncion 1–2 Club Guarani · Federico Carrizo
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Libertad Asuncion · On: Rodrigo Villalba · Off: Ivan Franco
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Libertad Asuncion · On: Ivan Emanuel Ramirez Ferreira · Off: Hugo Fernandez
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Libertad Asuncion · On: Agustín Manzur · Off: Federico Carrizo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Club Guarani · On: Miguel Jacquet · Off: Maximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornells
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Jorge Recalde · Club Guarani
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Cristian Leandro Allende · Club Guarani
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Libertad Asuncion 2–2 Club Guarani · Federico Carrizo
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Libertad Asuncion 2–2 Club Guarani · Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Club Guarani · On: Fernando Fernandez · Off: Victor·Cespedes
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Club Guarani · On: Thiago Ezequiel Romero · Off: Jorge Recalde
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Libertad Asuncion · On: Marcelo Fernández · Off: Gustavo Aguilar
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' L. Martínez · Club Guarani
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Club Guarani · On: J. Llano · Off: Giovanni Emanuel Gómez Lezcano
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Agustín Manzur · Libertad Asuncion
FTFULL TIME Libertad Asuncion 2–2 Club Guarani
FTLibertad Asuncion 2–2 Club Guarani · Libertad Asuncion win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Libertad Asuncion win36%

Draw31%

Club Guarani win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 23:20

VenueDr. Nicolás Leoz

RefereeDerlis Lopez

Line-ups

Libertad Asuncion

4-4-2

Club Guarani

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Libertad Asuncion

Club Guarani

6Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	+7	26
6	Club Guarani	13	+4	21

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Libertad Asuncion

4-4-2

12 Rodrigo Morínigo

2 Alan Benítez

3 Robert Rojas

5 Gilberto Flores

4 Néstor Giménez

20 Hugo Fernández

8 Federico Carrizo

21 Lucas Sanabria

19 Iván Franco

9 Gustavo Aguilar

11 Elvio Vera

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · Thiago Fernandez

24 · Rodrigo Villalba

7 · Agustín Manzur

26 · Ivan Ramirez

28 · Marcelo Fernandez

29 · Victor Rojas

38 · José Estigarribia

13 · Joaquin Bogarin

22 · Pedro Villalba

33 · Cristhian Martínez

30 · Oscar Acuña

32 · Luciano Nequecaur

Club Guarani

4-1-4-1

31 Miguel Martínez

4 Armando Méndez

2 Imanol Segovia

15 Thiago Servin

33 Leandro Allende

36 Luis Martinez

34 Martín Maldonado

10 Maximiliano Añasco

25 Giovanni Gómez

17 Victor Céspedes

9 Jorge Recalde

Coach · –

Substitutes

26 · Diego Fernández

23 · Miguel Jacquet

18 · Thiago Romero

40 · Fernando Fernández

29 · Jesús Llano

12 · Gustavo Dionisi

22 · Javier Velazquez

14 · René Rodríguez

39 · Carlos Rolón

16 · Lucas Romañach

21 · Carlos Arrua

11 · Juan Manuel García

Our number · libertad asuncion winPublished 11 Oct 23:01

36% The market45%

Us36%

~~Market~~45%

We make Libertad Asuncion a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Libertad Asuncion win	36%	45%	−10
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Club Guarani win	33%	26%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	42%	43%	−2
Both teams to score	49%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	23%	−2
Libertad Asuncion or draw	67%	74%	−7
Libertad Asuncion clean sheet	32%	–	–
Club Guarani clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 11.2 9.5 6.3 2.4 1 10.0 14.4 7.4 2.9 2 6.9 7.8 4.4 3 2.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Libertad Asuncion down, Club Guarani across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 698 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.55 goals a meeting; 7 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Libertad Asuncion at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Club Guarani away: 0.67 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Libertad Asuncion, 1.15 for Club Guarani. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 23:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.55

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 11

~~Both scored~~5 of 11

~~Last meetings~~CLU 2–1 LIB · CLU 1–2 LIB · LIB 0–4 CLU · LIB 0–2 CLU

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura

LIBERTAD ASUNCION

LWWDLW0–3 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

CLUB GUARANI

DWDWWD1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	13	+12	26
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	+7	26
3	2 de Mayo	13	+3	25
4	Sportivo Trinidense	14	+10	24
5	Nacional Asuncion	13	+12	23
6	Club Guarani	13	+4	21
7	Cerro Porteno	14	+4	20
8	Sportivo Ameliano	13	0	18
9	Sportivo Luqueno	14	−13	13
10	Rubio NU	13	−9	12
11	Deportivo Recoleta	13	−12	8
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	14	−18	4