Deportivo Recoleta v Sportivo Ameliano prediction · Division Profesional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportivo RecoletaDrawSportivo Ameliano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Recoleta 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Recoleta are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Recoleta 39%, draw 28%, Sportivo Ameliano 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Recoleta v Sportivo AmelianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Recoleta win39%

Draw28%

Sportivo Ameliano win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundClausura · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Recoleta

Sportivo Ameliano

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 18 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sportivo Ameliano	15	−1	19
11	Deportivo Recoleta	16	−12	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo recoleta winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Deportivo Recoleta a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Recoleta v Sportivo Ameliano~~1.40 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 19~~11 v 8

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Recoleta win	39%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Sportivo Ameliano win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Deportivo Recoleta or draw	66%	–	–
Deportivo Recoleta clean sheet	28%	–	–
Sportivo Ameliano clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.0 7.8 5.7 2.5 1 8.5 13.1 7.8 3.4 2 6.7 8.4 5.4 2.4 3 3.1 4.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Recoleta down, Sportivo Ameliano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 712 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.57 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Recoleta at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sportivo Ameliano away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Deportivo Recoleta, 1.29 for Sportivo Ameliano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.57

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~7 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SPO 3–1 DEP · SPO 3–2 DEP · DEP 1–1 SPO · SPO 1–4 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept

DEPORTIVO RECOLETA

LDLLWD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

SPORTIVO AMELIANO

WDDLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	15	+15	30
2	Libertad Asuncion	16	+7	30
3	Sportivo Trinidense	16	+12	30
4	Nacional Asuncion	16	+14	29
5	2 de Mayo	16	+1	29
6	Club Guarani	16	+4	25
7	Cerro Porteno	15	+4	21
8	Sportivo Ameliano	15	−1	19
9	Sportivo Luqueno	16	−13	16
10	Rubio NU	16	−12	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	16	−12	12
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	15	−19	4