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Home › Football › Division Profesional - Clausura › Deportivo Recoleta v Rubio NU

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Deportivo Recoleta v Rubio NU

Deportivo Recoleta
1–0Full time
Rubio NU

Division Profesional - Clausura · FRI 16 OCT · Estadio Roque F. Batelhana

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 02:30
Deportivo Recoleta 1–0 Rubio NU DEPORTIVO RECOLETA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Deportivo Recoleta win42%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.503
The market’s Brier score0.632

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Recoleta win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Recoleta 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Recoleta v Rubio NU
  4. 3′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Recoleta 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
  5. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Kevin Daniel Parzajuk Rodríguez · Deportivo Recoleta
  6. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Claudio Garay · Deportivo Recoleta
  7. 32′Rubio NU have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 38–32–29
  8. 34′8 shots for Rubio NU, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 38–33–29
  9. 44′Rubio NU have had 13 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 35–37–28
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Recoleta 0–0 Rubio NU
  11. 46′HALF-TIME Deportivo Recoleta 0–0 Rubio NU
  12. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Marcos Antonio Pereira Esteche · Off: lucas monzon
  13. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Marcelo Medina · Off: Facundo Ariel Echeguren Zarza
  14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Wilfrido Baez · Off: Kevin Daniel Parzajuk Rodríguez
  15. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Deportivo Recoleta win 34%)
  16. 52′16 shots for Rubio NU, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 33–42–26
  17. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Deportivo Recoleta win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  18. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–44–25
  19. 58′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–46–24
  20. 60′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–23
  21. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Alejandro Silva · Off: Claudio Garay
  22. 66′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–3
  23. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Deportivo Recoleta 1–0 Rubio NU
  24. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Deportivo Recoleta win: 42% at kick-off, 79% now
  25. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Deportivo Recoleta win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
  26. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rubio NU · On: Carlos Giménez · Off: Lucas Daniel Montiel Rodríguez
  27. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rubio NU · On: Rodrigo Rojas · Off: Octavio Alfonso
  28. 67′Renzo José Martino Campuzano scores for Deportivo Recoleta on 67′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  29. 68′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  30. 71′Rubio NU are down to ten from 70′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 82–16–2
  31. 71′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Maximiliano Garrone · Rubio NU
  32. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Deportivo Recoleta win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
  33. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rubio NU · On: E. Alfonso · Off: Sergio Fretes
  34. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rubio NU · On: A. Páez · Off: Tobías Leiva
  35. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rubio NU · On: Steven·Perez · Off: Rodrigo Ruiz Díaz
  36. 76′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
  37. 82′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  38. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Cristian Nunez · Rubio NU
  39. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Deportivo Recoleta win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  40. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Ronal Iván Domínguez Colmán · Off: José Espínola
  41. 88′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  42. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Renzo José Martino Campuzano · Deportivo Recoleta
  43. 95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Rubio NU
  44. 96′1–0 at the end. Our 42% on Deportivo Recoleta comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  45. FTFULL TIME Deportivo Recoleta 1–0 Rubio NU
  46. FTDeportivo Recoleta 1–0 Rubio NU · Deportivo Recoleta win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Recoleta are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Recoleta 42%, draw 27%, Rubio NU 31%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Recoleta v Rubio NUBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Recoleta win42%
Draw27%
Rubio NU win31%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 23:20

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Roque F. Batelhana

RefereeDerlis Lopez

Line-ups

Deportivo Recoleta

4-4-2

Rubio NU

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Recoleta

Rubio NU

4Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 11 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Rubio NU14−913
11Deportivo Recoleta14−138

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Recoleta

4-4-2

13 O. Toledo

2 F. A. Echeguren Zarza

5 N. Marotta

32 L. Monzón

18 P. Rios

36 B. Ferreira

6 J. Espínola

21 C. Garay

33 A. González

25 Renzo José Martino Campuzano

11 K. Parzajuk

Coach · J. González

Substitutes

3 · L. Cardozo

20 · M. Cañete

30 · P. Charpentier

7 · R. Domínguez

12 · N. Ferreira

8 · F. Galeano

15 · B. Medina

4 · M. Pereira

31 · M. Shupp

10 · A. Silva

24 · T. Vidal

17 · W. Báez

Rubio NU

4-2-3-1

25 F. Fragueda

13 V. Cabañas

3 J. Vallejos

5 P. Álvarez

19 M. Garrone

23 Tobías Leiva

15 C. Núñez

26 S. Fretes

29 O. Alfonso

35 L. Montiel

9 R. Ruiz Díaz

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · E. Alfonso

18 · M. Acosta

36 · C. Giménez

16 · J. González

27 · A. Ledesma

32 · L. Maldonado

10 · W. Mendieta

17 · Kevin Paredes

20 · A. Páez

40 · Estiven Osmar Pérez Yegros

14 · M. Ramos

8 · R. Rojas

Our number · deportivo recoleta winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off
42% The market35%
Us42%
Market35%

We make Deportivo Recoleta a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Deportivo Recoleta v Rubio NU1.57 – 1.31
Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 6 SeptW0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 8 v 1311 v 10
The market · Deportivo Recoleta win35% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 10 OCT 03:5716 OCT 23:10
Our probability · Deportivo Recoleta win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Deportivo Recoleta win42%35%+7
Draw27%28%−1
Rubio NU win31%36%−5
Over 2.5 goals55%50%+5
Both teams to score58%56%+2
Over 1.5 goals79%74%+5
Over 3.5 goals33%29%+4
Deportivo Recoleta or draw69%64%+5
Deportivo Recoleta clean sheet27%––
Rubio NU clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%
0123450 7.1 6.2 4.9 2.1 1 7.6 12.7 7.5 3.3 2 6.9 8.9 5.8 2.6 3 3.6 4.7 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Recoleta down, Rubio NU across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting2.71
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored4 of 7
Last meetingsRUB 1–3 DEP · DEP 1–0 RUB · RUB 1–1 DEP · DEP 2–0 RUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 6 Sept

DEPORTIVO RECOLETA

LLLDLL0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

RUBIO NU

LLLDWD2–4 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
12 de Mayo14+428
2Olimpia14+1227
3Libertad Asuncion14+727
4Nacional Asuncion14+1326
5Sportivo Trinidense14+1024
6Club Guarani14+422
7Cerro Porteno14+420
8Sportivo Ameliano14−118
9Sportivo Luqueno14−1313
10Rubio NU14−913
11Deportivo Recoleta14−138
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo14−184

The competition's standings before kick-off.