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Deportivo Recoleta v Rubio NU
Deportivo Recoleta
Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura · FRI 16 OCT · Estadio Roque F. Batelhana
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Recoleta win at 42%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Recoleta 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
- 1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Recoleta v Rubio NU
- 3′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Recoleta 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
- 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Kevin Daniel Parzajuk Rodríguez · Deportivo Recoleta
- 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Claudio Garay · Deportivo Recoleta
- 32′Rubio NU have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 38–32–29
- 34′8 shots for Rubio NU, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 38–33–29
- 44′Rubio NU have had 13 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 35–37–28
- 45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Recoleta 0–0 Rubio NU
- 46′HALF-TIME Deportivo Recoleta 0–0 Rubio NU
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Marcos Antonio Pereira Esteche · Off: lucas monzon
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Marcelo Medina · Off: Facundo Ariel Echeguren Zarza
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Wilfrido Baez · Off: Kevin Daniel Parzajuk Rodríguez
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Deportivo Recoleta win 34%)
- 52′16 shots for Rubio NU, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 33–42–26
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Deportivo Recoleta win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–44–25
- 58′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–46–24
- 60′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–23
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Alejandro Silva · Off: Claudio Garay
- 66′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–3
- 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Deportivo Recoleta 1–0 Rubio NU
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Deportivo Recoleta win: 42% at kick-off, 79% now
- 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Deportivo Recoleta win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rubio NU · On: Carlos Giménez · Off: Lucas Daniel Montiel Rodríguez
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rubio NU · On: Rodrigo Rojas · Off: Octavio Alfonso
- 67′Renzo José Martino Campuzano scores for Deportivo Recoleta on 67′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 68′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 71′Rubio NU are down to ten from 70′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 82–16–2
- 71′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Maximiliano Garrone · Rubio NU
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Deportivo Recoleta win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rubio NU · On: E. Alfonso · Off: Sergio Fretes
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rubio NU · On: A. Páez · Off: Tobías Leiva
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rubio NU · On: Steven·Perez · Off: Rodrigo Ruiz Díaz
- 76′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
- 82′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Cristian Nunez · Rubio NU
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Deportivo Recoleta win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Ronal Iván Domínguez Colmán · Off: José Espínola
- 88′We said Deportivo Recoleta at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Renzo José Martino Campuzano · Deportivo Recoleta
- 95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Rubio NU
- 96′1–0 at the end. Our 42% on Deportivo Recoleta comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Deportivo Recoleta 1–0 Rubio NU
- FTDeportivo Recoleta 1–0 Rubio NU · Deportivo Recoleta win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassDeportivo Recoleta are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Recoleta 42%, draw 27%, Rubio NU 31%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Deportivo Recoleta win42%
Rubio NU win31%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 23:20
RoundClausura · matchday 15
VenueEstadio Roque F. Batelhana
RefereeDerlis Lopez
Match timeline
All events
Deportivo RecoletaMIN
Rubio NUEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Deportivo Recoleta
4-4-2
Rubio NU
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Deportivo Recoleta
Rubio NU
Last match: 12 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura
Last match: 11 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Deportivo Recoleta
4-4-2
13 O. Toledo
2 F. A. Echeguren Zarza
5 N. Marotta
32 L. Monzón
18 P. Rios
36 B. Ferreira
6 J. Espínola
21 C. Garay
33 A. González
25 Renzo José Martino Campuzano
11 K. Parzajuk
Coach · J. González
Substitutes
3 · L. Cardozo
20 · M. Cañete
30 · P. Charpentier
7 · R. Domínguez
12 · N. Ferreira
8 · F. Galeano
15 · B. Medina
4 · M. Pereira
31 · M. Shupp
10 · A. Silva
24 · T. Vidal
17 · W. Báez
Rubio NU
4-2-3-1
25 F. Fragueda
13 V. Cabañas
3 J. Vallejos
5 P. Álvarez
19 M. Garrone
23 Tobías Leiva
15 C. Núñez
26 S. Fretes
29 O. Alfonso
35 L. Montiel
9 R. Ruiz Díaz
Coach · –
Substitutes
7 · E. Alfonso
18 · M. Acosta
36 · C. Giménez
16 · J. González
27 · A. Ledesma
32 · L. Maldonado
10 · W. Mendieta
17 · Kevin Paredes
20 · A. Páez
40 · Estiven Osmar Pérez Yegros
14 · M. Ramos
8 · R. Rojas
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Deportivo Recoleta
4-4-2
13 O. Toledo
2 F. A. Echeguren Zarza
5 N. Marotta
32 L. Monzón
18 P. Rios
36 B. Ferreira
6 J. Espínola
21 C. Garay
33 A. González
25 Renzo José Martino Campuzano
11 K. Parzajuk
Coach · J. González
Substitutes
3 · L. Cardozo
20 · M. Cañete
30 · P. Charpentier
7 · R. Domínguez
12 · N. Ferreira
8 · F. Galeano
15 · B. Medina
4 · M. Pereira
31 · M. Shupp
10 · A. Silva
24 · T. Vidal
17 · W. Báez
Rubio NU
4-2-3-1
25 F. Fragueda
13 V. Cabañas
3 J. Vallejos
5 P. Álvarez
19 M. Garrone
23 Tobías Leiva
15 C. Núñez
26 S. Fretes
29 O. Alfonso
35 L. Montiel
9 R. Ruiz Díaz
Coach · –
Substitutes
7 · E. Alfonso
18 · M. Acosta
36 · C. Giménez
16 · J. González
27 · A. Ledesma
32 · L. Maldonado
10 · W. Mendieta
17 · Kevin Paredes
20 · A. Páez
40 · Estiven Osmar Pérez Yegros
14 · M. Ramos
8 · R. Rojas
We make Deportivo Recoleta a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Recoleta win | 42% | 35% | +7 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | −1 |
| Rubio NU win | 31% | 36% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 29% | +4 |
| Deportivo Recoleta or draw | 69% | 64% | +5 |
| Deportivo Recoleta clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Rubio NU clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2023Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 6 Sept
DEPORTIVO RECOLETA
RUBIO NU
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 14 | +4 | 28 |
| 2 | Olimpia | 14 | +12 | 27 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 14 | +7 | 27 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 14 | +13 | 26 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 14 | +10 | 24 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 14 | +4 | 22 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 14 | −1 | 18 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 14 | −13 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 14 | −9 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 14 | −13 | 8 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 14 | −18 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
2 de Mayo
Olimpia
Libertad Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Trinidense
Club Guarani
Cerro Porteno
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Luqueno
Club Sp. San Lorenzo