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Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Sportivo Trinidense

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1–1Full time

Sportivo Trinidense

Division Profesional - Clausura · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Gunther Vogel

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Sportivo Trinidense SPORTIVO TRINIDENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sportivo Trinidense win~~49%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.791

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.152

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sportivo Trinidense win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sportivo Trinidense was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 24–27–50
2′Much as we predicted: Sportivo Trinidense was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 24–27–50
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Néstor Camacho · Sportivo Trinidense
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 Sportivo Trinidense
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 Sportivo Trinidense · J. Barrios
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' J. Barrios · Club Sp. San Lorenzo
42′25′ and it is 1–0: J. Barrios on the scoresheet for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. 1–0 · 61–26–13
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Sportivo Trinidense win: 49% at kick-off, 13% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Club Sp. San Lorenzo win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Sportivo Trinidense win 13%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Sportivo Trinidense win: 49% at kick-off, 50% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Sportivo Trinidense win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Club Sp. San Lorenzo win 24%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Sportivo Trinidense win: 49% at kick-off, 50% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Sportivo Trinidense win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Club Sp. San Lorenzo win 24%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Sportivo Trinidense win: 49% at kick-off, 13% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Club Sp. San Lorenzo win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Sportivo Trinidense win 13%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Sportivo Trinidense win: 49% at kick-off, 13% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Club Sp. San Lorenzo win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Sportivo Trinidense win 13%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Sportivo Trinidense win: 49% at kick-off, 50% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Sportivo Trinidense win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Club Sp. San Lorenzo win 24%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sportivo Trinidense win: 49% at kick-off, 13% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Club Sp. San Lorenzo win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Sportivo Trinidense win 13%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sportivo Trinidense win: 49% at kick-off, 50% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Sportivo Trinidense win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Club Sp. San Lorenzo win 24%)
45′HALF-TIME Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 Sportivo Trinidense
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Nicolás Maná · Off: Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Nicolás Maná · Off: Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredo
46′SECOND HALF Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 Sportivo Trinidense
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Club Sp. San Lorenzo · On: Ángel Benítez · Off: R. Amarilla
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Club Sp. San Lorenzo · On: Gastón Gerzel · Off: Kevin Ferreira Gonzalez
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Clementino González · Off: Néstor Camacho
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Fabrizio Baruja · Off: Cesar Benitez
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sportivo Trinidense · On: Oscar Gimenez · Off: Alan Tobias Morinigo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Club Sp. San Lorenzo · On: Elias Ortiz · Off: K. Fernández
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Club Sp. San Lorenzo · On: Carlos Daniel Meza Montiel · Off: I Fretes
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Fabrizio Baruja · Sportivo Trinidense
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Gastón Gerzel · Club Sp. San Lorenzo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Club Sp. San Lorenzo · On: Alexis Doldán · Off: Héctor Villamayor
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Sportivo Trinidense · J. Barrios
FTFULL TIME Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Sportivo Trinidense
FTClub Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Sportivo Trinidense · Sportivo Trinidense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Club Sp. San Lorenzo win23%

Draw29%

Sportivo Trinidense win49%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

Venue · Estadio Gunther Vogel

Referee · Carlos P. Benitez

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

4-4-2

31 Luis Franco

24 Matías Agüero

5 Teodoro Paredes

21 Hugo González

13 Isaias Fretes

22 Kevin Gonzalez

6 Héctor Villamayor

15 Bruno Piñatares

25 Kevin Fernández

9 Jose Barrios

8 Rodrigo Amarilla

Coach · S. Orteman

Substitutes

28 · Gastón Gerzel

16 · Ángel Benítez

20 · Daniel Meza

27 · Elias Ortiz

4 · Alexis Doldán

12 · Wilson Quiñónez

26 · José Duarte

32 · Franco Aragón

7 · Santiago Salcedo

35 · Cristian Colmán

37 · Santiago Exequiel Salcedo Bernatto

39 · Lucas Cohener

Sportivo Trinidense

4-1-4-1

12 Victor Samudio

23 Cesar Benitez

40 Agustín da Silveira

6 Axel Cañete

4 Diego Melgarejo

5 Nelson Gauto

22 Junior Gamarra

21 Gustavo Viera

29 Tomas Rayer

31 Alan Tobías Morinigo

7 Néstor Camacho

Coach · J. Arrúa

Substitutes

11 · Luis Abreu

10 · Nicolás Maná

24 · Fabricio Baruja

20 · Clementino González

9 · Oscar Gimenez

1 · Matías Dufour

14 · Sergio Mendoza

3 · David Villalba

17 · Joel Román

28 · Brian Leguizamon

37 · Lucas González

13 · Faustino Barone

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

4-4-2

31 Luis Franco

24 Matías Agüero

5 Teodoro Paredes

21 Hugo González

13 Isaias Fretes

22 Kevin Gonzalez

6 Héctor Villamayor

15 Bruno Piñatares

25 Kevin Fernández

9 Jose Barrios

8 Rodrigo Amarilla

Coach · S. Orteman

Substitutes

28 · Gastón Gerzel

16 · Ángel Benítez

20 · Daniel Meza

27 · Elias Ortiz

4 · Alexis Doldán

12 · Wilson Quiñónez

26 · José Duarte

32 · Franco Aragón

7 · Santiago Salcedo

35 · Cristian Colmán

37 · Santiago Exequiel Salcedo Bernatto

39 · Lucas Cohener

Sportivo Trinidense

4-1-4-1

12 Victor Samudio

23 Cesar Benitez

40 Agustín da Silveira

6 Axel Cañete

4 Diego Melgarejo

5 Nelson Gauto

22 Junior Gamarra

21 Gustavo Viera

29 Tomas Rayer

31 Alan Tobías Morinigo

7 Néstor Camacho

Coach · J. Arrúa

Substitutes

11 · Luis Abreu

10 · Nicolás Maná

24 · Fabricio Baruja

20 · Clementino González

9 · Oscar Gimenez

1 · Matías Dufour

14 · Sergio Mendoza

3 · David Villalba

17 · Joel Román

28 · Brian Leguizamon

37 · Lucas González

13 · Faustino Barone

Our number · sportivo trinidense winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

49% The market70%

Us49%

~~Market~~70%

We make Sportivo Trinidense a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 21 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sportivo trinidense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 70% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Sp. San Lorenzo win	23%	11%	+12
Draw	29%	19%	+10
Sportivo Trinidense win	49%	70%	−21
Over 2.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Both teams to score	47%	43%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	22%	31%	−9
Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw	51%	30%	+21
Club Sp. San Lorenzo clean sheet	23%	–	–
Sportivo Trinidense clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.6 12.1 9.8 4.9 1 7.1 13.5 8.9 4.4 2 3.9 5.7 4.1 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Sp. San Lorenzo down, Sportivo Trinidense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 696 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home: 0.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sportivo Trinidense away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 1.47 for Sportivo Trinidense. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 20:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SPO 3–0 CLU

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura

CLUB SP. SAN LORENZO

LLLLDD1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

SPORTIVO TRINIDENSE

WLWLWW3–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	13	+12	26
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	+7	26
3	2 de Mayo	13	+3	25
4	Nacional Asuncion	13	+12	23
5	Sportivo Trinidense	13	+10	23
6	Club Guarani	13	+4	21
7	Sportivo Ameliano	13	0	18
8	Cerro Porteno	13	+1	17
9	Sportivo Luqueno	13	−10	13
10	Rubio NU	13	−9	12
11	Deportivo Recoleta	13	−12	8
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	13	−18	3