Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Libertad Asuncion prediction · Division Profesional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Club Sp. San LorenzoDrawLibertad Asuncion

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Libertad Asuncion 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Libertad Asuncion are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 22%, draw 28%, Libertad Asuncion 51%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Libertad AsuncionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Club Sp. San Lorenzo win22%

Draw28%

Libertad Asuncion win51%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 22:30

RoundClausura · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Libertad Asuncion

13Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 23 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Libertad Asuncion	16	+7	30
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	15	−19	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · libertad asuncion winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Libertad Asuncion a 51% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Libertad Asuncion~~0.91 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 30~~12 v 2

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Sp. San Lorenzo win	22%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Libertad Asuncion win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw	49%	–	–
Club Sp. San Lorenzo clean sheet	22%	–	–
Libertad Asuncion clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.9 12.3 10.1 5.2 2.0 1 6.9 13.0 9.1 4.7 2 3.6 5.5 4.2 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Sp. San Lorenzo down, Libertad Asuncion across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 712 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Libertad Asuncion away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 1.54 for Libertad Asuncion. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LIB 1–0 CLU · LIB 5–0 CLU · CLU 0–7 LIB · CLU 1–2 LIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept

CLUB SP. SAN LORENZO

LLDDDL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

LIBERTAD ASUNCION

DLWDLW1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	15	+15	30
2	Libertad Asuncion	16	+7	30
3	Sportivo Trinidense	16	+12	30
4	Nacional Asuncion	16	+14	29
5	2 de Mayo	15	+1	28
6	Club Guarani	16	+4	25
7	Cerro Porteno	15	+4	21
8	Sportivo Ameliano	15	−1	19
9	Sportivo Luqueno	16	−13	16
10	Rubio NU	16	−12	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	15	−12	11
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	15	−19	4