Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Cerro Porteno prediction · Division Profesional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Club Sp. San LorenzoDrawCerro Porteno

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Cerro Porteno 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cerro Porteno are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 19%, draw 28%, Cerro Porteno 53%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Cerro PortenoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Club Sp. San Lorenzo win19%

Draw28%

Cerro Porteno win53%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 22:30

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstadio Gunther Vogel

RefereeDerlis Lopez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Cerro Porteno

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cerro Porteno	15	+4	21
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	15	−19	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cerro porteno winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

53% The market67%

Us53%

~~Market~~67%

We make Cerro Porteno a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Cerro Porteno~~0.83 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 21~~12 v 7

~~The market · Cerro Porteno win~~67% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cerro Porteno win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Sp. San Lorenzo win	19%	12%	+7
Draw	28%	21%	+7
Cerro Porteno win	53%	67%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	42%	50%	−8
Both teams to score	45%	45%	0
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	22%	29%	−7
Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw	47%	33%	+14
Club Sp. San Lorenzo clean sheet	22%	–	–
Cerro Porteno clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.4 13.5 11.0 5.7 2.3 1 6.8 12.7 9.0 4.7 2 3.2 4.9 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Sp. San Lorenzo down, Cerro Porteno across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 711 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cerro Porteno away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 1.55 for Cerro Porteno. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CER 2–2 CLU · CER 1–0 CLU · CER 2–0 CLU · CLU 2–4 CER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept

CLUB SP. SAN LORENZO

LLDDDL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

CERRO PORTENO

DWLLWD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	15	+15	30
2	Libertad Asuncion	16	+7	30
3	Nacional Asuncion	15	+15	29
4	2 de Mayo	15	+1	28
5	Sportivo Trinidense	15	+11	27
6	Club Guarani	16	+4	25
7	Cerro Porteno	15	+4	21
8	Sportivo Ameliano	15	−1	19
9	Sportivo Luqueno	16	−13	16
10	Rubio NU	16	−12	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	15	−12	11
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	15	−19	4