Club Guarani v Nacional Asuncion prediction · Division Profesional

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00

Club Guarani 0–2 Nacional Asuncion CLUB GUARANI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club Guarani win~~34%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.686

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.666

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Guarani win at 34%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Club Guarani 34% before kick-off, 34% now. 0–0 · 34–34–32
1′KICK-OFF Club Guarani v Nacional Asuncion
44′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Angel Lucena · Nacional Asuncion
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Club Guarani win 27%)
45′HALF-TIME Club Guarani 0–0 Nacional Asuncion
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Nacional Asuncion · On: Hugo Valdez · Off: Orlando Gaona Lugo
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Nacional Asuncion · On: Ignacio Bailone · Off: Angel Lucena
48′SECOND HALF Club Guarani 0–0 Nacional Asuncion
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Club Guarani win: 34% at kick-off, 24% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Armando Méndez · Club Guarani
60′We said Club Guarani at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–0 · 22–57–21
65′We said Club Guarani at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Club Guarani · On: Fernando Fernandez · Off: Maximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornells
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Nacional Asuncion · On: Roberto Carlos Ramírez Antúnez · Off: Josué Colmán
74′We said Club Guarani at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Club Guarani win: 34% at kick-off, 14% now
75′We said Club Guarani at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–12–87
75′75′: Hugo Valdez on the scoresheet for Nacional Asuncion, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Club Guarani 0–1 Nacional Asuncion
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Club Guarani win: 34% at kick-off, 1% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Nacional Asuncion win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Club Guarani · On: Thiago Ezequiel Romero · Off: Martín Maldonado
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Club Guarani · On: Diego·Fernandez · Off: Victor·Cespedes
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Club Guarani · On: Juan Manuel García · Off: Jorge Recalde
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Club Guarani · On: Carlos Arrua · Off: Giovanni Emanuel Gómez Lezcano
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Nacional Asuncion · On: Jordan·Santacruz · Off: Fabrizio Jara
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Roberto Carlos Ramírez Antúnez · Nacional Asuncion
93′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Club Guarani 0–2 Nacional Asuncion
FTFULL TIME Club Guarani 0–2 Nacional Asuncion
FTClub Guarani 0–2 Nacional Asuncion · Club Guarani win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Club Guarani just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Guarani 34%, draw 33%, Nacional Asuncion 32%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Club Guarani v Nacional AsuncionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Club Guarani win34%

Draw33%

Nacional Asuncion win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Rogelio Livieres

RefereeJuan Gabriel Benitez

Line-ups

Club Guarani

4-4-2

Nacional Asuncion

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Guarani

Nacional Asuncion

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 12 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Nacional Asuncion	14	+13	26
6	Club Guarani	14	+4	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Club Guarani

4-4-2

31 M. Martínez

4 A. Méndez

2 I. Segovia

15 T. Servín

33 L. Allende

34 M. Maldonado

36 L. Martínez

25 G. Gómez

17 V. Céspedes

10 M. Añasco

9 J. Recalde

Coach · F. Arce

Substitutes

16 · Jonatan Marcelo Benítez Otazú

21 · C. Arrúa

38 · P. Corone

12 · G. Dionisi

40 · F. Fernández

26 · D. Fernández

11 · J. García

19 · A. Ibarra

23 · M. Jacquet

29 · F. Llano

14 · R. Rodríguez

18 · T. Romero

Nacional Asuncion

4-1-4-1

30 S. Rojas

23 C. Espínola

3 M. Coronel

5 G. Benítez

29 S. Vargas

15 Á. Cardozo Lucena

33 O. Gaona

8 F. Jara

13 L. Meza

10 J. Colmán

9 H. Benítez

Coach · V. Bernay

Substitutes

20 · Rodolfo Arguello

7 · I. Bailone

19 · L. González

36 · F. Pelozo

32 · F. Pumpido

25 · Roberto Carlos Ramírez Antúnez

28 · A. Samudio

17 · J. Santacruz

18 · I. Valdez

38 · T. Vega

35 · Elias Enrique Villlar Fleitas

11 · Matías Facundo Almeida Martínez

Our number · club guarani winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

34% The market36%

Us34%

~~Market~~36%

We make Club Guarani a 34% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Guarani v Nacional Asuncion~~1.02 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 7 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 26~~6 v 4

~~The market · Club Guarani win~~36% · ours 34%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club Guarani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Guarani win	34%	36%	−2
Draw	33%	31%	+2
Nacional Asuncion win	32%	33%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
Both teams to score	41%	47%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	61%	64%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	15%	19%	−4
Club Guarani or draw	68%	67%	+1
Club Guarani clean sheet	37%	–	–
Nacional Asuncion clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.9%

0123450 14.9 11.9 6.5 2.2 1 12.3 14.7 6.6 2.2 2 7.0 6.8 3.4 3 2.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Guarani down, Nacional Asuncion across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 703 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Guarani at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nacional Asuncion away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Club Guarani, 0.99 for Nacional Asuncion. Most likely score 0–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 20:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NAC 0–0 CLU · CLU 0–1 NAC · NAC 1–1 CLU · CLU 0–4 NAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 7 Sept

CLUB GUARANI

WDWWDD2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

NACIONAL ASUNCION

LWWDDW0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	2 de Mayo	14	+4	28
2	Olimpia	14	+12	27
3	Libertad Asuncion	14	+7	27
4	Nacional Asuncion	14	+13	26
5	Sportivo Trinidense	14	+10	24
6	Club Guarani	14	+4	22
7	Cerro Porteno	14	+4	20
8	Sportivo Ameliano	14	−1	18
9	Sportivo Luqueno	14	−13	13
10	Rubio NU	15	−10	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	15	−12	11
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	14	−18	4