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Cerro Porteno v Sportivo Ameliano

Cerro Porteno

2–2Full time

Sportivo Ameliano

Division Profesional - Clausura · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio General Pablo Rojas

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:30

Cerro Porteno 2–2 Sportivo Ameliano CERRO PORTENO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cerro Porteno win~~52%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.834

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.918

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cerro Porteno win at 52%.
2′Much as we predicted: Cerro Porteno was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–28–20
2′KICK-OFF Cerro Porteno v Sportivo Ameliano
30′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Cerro Porteno · On: Blás Riveros · Off: Guillermo Benitez
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Cerro Porteno win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
42′Jorge Morel scores for Cerro Porteno on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
42′We published Cerro Porteno at 52%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
42′⚽ GOAL · 40' Cerro Porteno 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano · Jorge Morel
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Cerro Porteno win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
44′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
45′SECOND HALF Cerro Porteno 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Cerro Porteno win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
47′HALF-TIME Cerro Porteno 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sportivo Ameliano · On: Fabián Franco · Off: Miguel Benitez
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Jonathan Daniel Benítez Benítez · Sportivo Ameliano
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Raul Ignacio Cabral · Sportivo Ameliano
54′53′: Jorge Morel on the scoresheet for Cerro Porteno, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Cerro Porteno 2–0 Sportivo Ameliano · Jorge Morel (penalty)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Cerro Porteno win: 52% at kick-off, 97% now
55′We published Cerro Porteno at 52%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
59′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 84–14–2
59′PENALTY · 58' Sportivo Ameliano
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Cerro Porteno 2–1 Sportivo Ameliano
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Cerro Porteno win: 52% at kick-off, 84% now
60′Sportivo Ameliano pull one back on 59′ through Cristhian·Ocampos. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Cerro Porteno · On: Iván Ramírez · Off: Fabricio Domínguez
63′We published Cerro Porteno at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sportivo Ameliano · On: Walter Rodriguez · Off: Jonathan Daniel Benítez Benítez
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cerro Porteno · On: Ignacio Aliseda · Off: Derlis Osmar Rodríguez Maciel
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cerro Porteno · On: Sergio Araujo · Off: Mateo Klimowicz
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sportivo Ameliano · On: Luis María Ayala Bentos · Off: Luis Ortiz
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sportivo Ameliano · On: R. Torales · Off: Raul Ignacio Cabral
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cerro Porteno · On: Pablo Gamarra · Off: Carlos Rubén Chena Báez
76′We published Cerro Porteno at 52%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
77′A red card for Cerro Porteno on 76′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 91–9–1
77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Cerro Porteno
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Cerro Porteno win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sportivo Ameliano · On: Gabriel Marcelo Camargo · Off: Estivel Moreira
86′Luis María Ayala Bentos scores for Sportivo Ameliano on 85′. 2–1 · 96–4–0
86′We said Cerro Porteno at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–88–4
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Cerro Porteno 2–2 Sportivo Ameliano · Luis María Ayala Bentos
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Cerro Porteno win: 52% at kick-off, 8% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Cerro Porteno win 8%)
87′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 7–89–4
90′Full time, 2–2. We called Cerro Porteno at 52% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Luca Andrea Falabella · Sportivo Ameliano
91′We said Cerro Porteno at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–2
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Cerro Porteno win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Cerro Porteno 2–2 Sportivo Ameliano
FTCerro Porteno 2–2 Sportivo Ameliano · Cerro Porteno win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cerro Porteno are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cerro Porteno 52%, draw 28%, Sportivo Ameliano 20%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Cerro Porteno v Sportivo AmelianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cerro Porteno win52%

Draw28%

Sportivo Ameliano win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio General Pablo Rojas

RefereeDerlis Benitez

Line-ups

Cerro Porteno

4-1-4-1

Sportivo Ameliano

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cerro Porteno

Sportivo Ameliano

4Days since last match6

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Paraguay

Last match: 12 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cerro Porteno	14	+4	20
8	Sportivo Ameliano	14	−1	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cerro Porteno

4-1-4-1

12 A. Martínez

2 F. Domínguez

4 A. Cañete

14 L. Quintana

13 G. Benítez

5 J. Morel

7 D. Rodríguez

32 C. Bobadilla

34 C. Chena

40 M. Klimowicz

19 P. Vegetti

Coach · G. Costas

Substitutes

27 · J. Torres

1 · M. Roffo

23 · G. Velázquez

21 · S. Araújo

20 · E. Almendra

31 · I. Aliseda

28 · C. Franco

18 · A. Gamarra

30 · G. Giménez

6 · L. Merolla

16 · I. Ramírez

15 · B. Riveros

Sportivo Ameliano

4-2-3-1

35 Á. Sánchez

13 R. Peralta

26 J. González

22 L. Falabella

34 M. Benítez

8 E. Moreira

6 J. Benítez

7 F. Vera

10 R. Cabral

18 L. Ortiz

9 C. Ocampos

Coach · Roberto Nanni

Substitutes

20 · V. Larralde

21 · F. Franco

40 · A. Contrera

32 · G. Camargo

3 · F. Báez

31 · E. Britez

5 · H. Benítez

1 · J. Balbuena

24 · L. Bentos

25 · L. Bruno

15 · W. Rodríguez

17 · R. Torales

Our number · cerro porteno winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market56%

Us52%

~~Market~~56%

We make Cerro Porteno a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cerro Porteno v Sportivo Ameliano~~1.56 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 18~~7 v 8

~~The market · Cerro Porteno win~~56% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cerro Porteno win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cerro Porteno win	52%	56%	−4
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Sportivo Ameliano win	20%	19%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	50%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	73%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	29%	−6
Cerro Porteno or draw	80%	81%	−1
Cerro Porteno clean sheet	42%	–	–
Sportivo Ameliano clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.3 6.5 3.4 1 12.6 13.0 5.1 2 10.7 9.1 4.0 3 5.6 4.8 2.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cerro Porteno down, Sportivo Ameliano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 705 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cerro Porteno at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sportivo Ameliano away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Cerro Porteno, 0.87 for Sportivo Ameliano. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 20:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–0 CER · CER 1–1 SPO · SPO 0–1 CER · CER 2–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 6 Sept

CERRO PORTENO

WDWLLW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–0

SPORTIVO AMELIANO

WWDDLL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	15	+15	30
2	Nacional Asuncion	15	+15	29
3	2 de Mayo	15	+1	28
4	Libertad Asuncion	14	+7	27
5	Sportivo Trinidense	14	+10	24
6	Club Guarani	15	+2	22
7	Cerro Porteno	14	+4	20
8	Sportivo Ameliano	14	−1	18
9	Sportivo Luqueno	14	−13	13
10	Rubio NU	15	−10	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	15	−12	11
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	14	−18	4