2 de Mayo v Sportivo Ameliano prediction · Division Profesional

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 00:00

2 de Mayo 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano 2 DE MAYO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 2 de Mayo win~~44%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.631

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 2 de Mayo win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF 2 de Mayo v Sportivo Ameliano
2′Much as we predicted: 2 de Mayo was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–28
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Alberto Espinola · 2 de Mayo
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Luis Delgadillo · 2 de Mayo
45′HALF-TIME 2 de Mayo 0–0 Sportivo Ameliano
46′SECOND HALF 2 de Mayo 0–0 Sportivo Ameliano
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' 2 de Mayo 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' 2 de Mayo 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano · Alan Gómez
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' 2 de Mayo · On: Ó. Romero · Off: Luis Delgadillo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' 2 de Mayo · On: Pedro Delvalle · Off: Matías Moya
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sportivo Ameliano · On: Estivel Moreira · Off: Valentin Larralde
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sportivo Ameliano · On: Luis Ortiz · Off: Edgar Paez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sportivo Ameliano · On: Fabián Franco · Off: Ronald David Peralta Chavez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sportivo Ameliano · On: R. Torales · Off: Walter Rodriguez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' 2 de Mayo · On: F. Cáceres · Off: Alexis Fariña
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' 2 de Mayo · On: Alexis Villalba · Off: Alberto Espinola
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' 2 de Mayo · On: Tobías Gabriel Portillo Ávalos · Off: Alan Gómez
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Marcos Gómez · 2 de Mayo
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Fabián Franco · Sportivo Ameliano
FTFULL TIME 2 de Mayo 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano
FT2 de Mayo 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano · 2 de Mayo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 20:45 · locked at kick-off

2 de Mayo win44%

Draw30%

Sportivo Ameliano win26%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 21:00

VenueEstadio Monumental Rio Parapiti

RefereeAlipio Colman

Line-ups

2 de Mayo

4-1-4-1

Sportivo Ameliano

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

2 de Mayo

Sportivo Ameliano

7Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	2 de Mayo	13	+3	25
8	Sportivo Ameliano	13	0	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

2 de Mayo

4-1-4-1

1 D. Lerda

23 A. Espínola

21 P. Sosa

6 C. Ramírez

19 C. Castro

16 M. Gómez

27 M. Moya

37 L. Delgadillo

30 A. Fariña

10 A. Gómez

25 A. Cervera

Coach · Eduardo Ledesma

Substitutes

7 · F. Cáceres

3 · A. Villalba

17 · P. Delvalle

20 · E. Díaz

22 · T. Portillo

32 · Mario Ramírez

24 · Ó. Romero

5 · C. Saiz

4 · Tobías Sanabria Panotto

9 · J. Sanguina

11 · U. Coronel

8 · Á. Aguilera

Sportivo Ameliano

4-1-4-1

35 Á. Sánchez

13 R. Peralta

26 J. González

22 L. Falabella

19 A. Paredes

15 W. Rodríguez

7 F. Vera

20 V. Larralde

10 R. Cabral

14 E. Torales

9 C. Ocampos

Coach · Roberto Nanni

Substitutes

24 · L. Bentos

1 · J. Balbuena

5 · H. Benítez

6 · J. Benítez

32 · G. Camargo

40 · A. Contrera

21 · F. Franco

25 · L. Bruno

8 · E. Moreira

18 · L. Ortiz

34 · Luciano Suarez

17 · R. Torales

Our number · 2 de mayo winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 20:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market35%

Us44%

~~Market~~35%

We make 2 de Mayo a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
2 de Mayo win	44%	35%	+8
Draw	30%	30%	0
Sportivo Ameliano win	26%	34%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	42%	43%	0
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	68%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−1
2 de Mayo or draw	74%	66%	+8
2 de Mayo clean sheet	37%	–	–
Sportivo Ameliano clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 11.0 7.8 4.7 1 11.2 14.2 6.4 2.2 2 8.7 8.6 4.4 3 4.0 4.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+2 de Mayo down, Sportivo Ameliano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 700 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.60 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

2 de Mayo at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sportivo Ameliano away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for 2 de Mayo, 1.01 for Sportivo Ameliano. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 20:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–1 DEM · SPO 2–3 DEM · DEM 1–1 SPO · SPO 0–2 DEM

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura

2 DE MAYO

DWLLDW2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–0

SPORTIVO AMELIANO

LWWDDL0–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	14	+12	27
2	Libertad Asuncion	14	+7	27
3	2 de Mayo	13	+3	25
4	Sportivo Trinidense	14	+10	24
5	Nacional Asuncion	13	+12	23
6	Club Guarani	14	+4	22
7	Cerro Porteno	14	+4	20
8	Sportivo Ameliano	13	0	18
9	Rubio NU	14	−9	13
10	Sportivo Luqueno	14	−13	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	13	−12	8
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	14	−18	4