2 de Mayo v Deportivo Recoleta prediction · Division Profesional

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:01

2 de Mayo 1–1 Deportivo Recoleta 2 DE MAYO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said 2 de Mayo win~~46%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.803

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.776

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 2 de Mayo win at 46%.
2′Much as we predicted: 2 de Mayo was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
2′KICK-OFF 2 de Mayo v Deportivo Recoleta
21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Manuel Schupp Astigarraga · Deportivo Recoleta
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Nicolas Marotta · Deportivo Recoleta
44′7 shots for 2 de Mayo, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 37–40–24
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' 2 de Mayo win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′HALF-TIME 2 de Mayo 0–0 Deportivo Recoleta
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Brahian Vidal Ferreira Benítez · Off: Manuel Schupp Astigarraga
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was 2 de Mayo win 38%)
46′SECOND HALF 2 de Mayo 0–0 Deportivo Recoleta
51′We said 2 de Mayo at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
53′9 shots for 2 de Mayo, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 33–45–22
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–46–21
59′We said 2 de Mayo at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–23–70
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' 2 de Mayo 0–1 Deportivo Recoleta
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' 2 de Mayo win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Deportivo Recoleta win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 49%)
60′Brahian Vidal Ferreira Benítez scores for Deportivo Recoleta on 59′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–70
61′Brahian Vidal Ferreira Benítez scores for Deportivo Recoleta on 58′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–23–71
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' 2 de Mayo win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Aldo Walmor González Román · Off: Thiago Vidal
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Deportivo Recoleta · On: José Espínola · Off: Claudio Garay
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' 2 de Mayo · On: F. Cáceres · Off: Luis Delgadillo
68′We said 2 de Mayo at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' 2 de Mayo · On: Pedro Delvalle · Off: Alan Gómez
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' 2 de Mayo · On: Estifen Arnaldo Diaz Atienza · Off: Matías Moya
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' 2 de Mayo · On: Jorge Sanguina · Off: Tobias Cervera
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' 2 de Mayo · On: Daniel Angel Aguilera · Off: Alexis Fariña
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Cesar Castro · 2 de Mayo
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Kevin Daniel Parzajuk Rodríguez · Off: Renzo José Martino Campuzano
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Deportivo Recoleta · On: Marcelo Medina · Off: Wilfrido Baez
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' A. Marsegno · Deportivo Recoleta
86′2 de Mayo have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–7–92
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Jorge Sanguina · 2 de Mayo
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' 2 de Mayo 1–1 Deportivo Recoleta
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Deportivo Recoleta win 98%)
95′90′: Marcos Gómez on the scoresheet for 2 de Mayo, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
FTFULL TIME 2 de Mayo 1–1 Deportivo Recoleta
FT2 de Mayo 1–1 Deportivo Recoleta · 2 de Mayo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

2 de Mayo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 2 de Mayo 46%, draw 28%, Deportivo Recoleta 26%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on 2 de Mayo v Deportivo RecoletaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

2 de Mayo win46%

Draw28%

Deportivo Recoleta win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:30

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstadio Monumental Rio Parapiti

RefereeGiancarlos Juliadoza

Line-ups

2 de Mayo

4-1-4-1

Deportivo Recoleta

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

2 de Mayo

Deportivo Recoleta

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 16 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	2 de Mayo	15	+1	28
11	Deportivo Recoleta	15	−12	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

2 de Mayo

4-1-4-1

1 D. Lerda

2 Rodrigo Antonio Gómez Villalba

21 P. Sosa

3 A. Villalba

19 C. Castro

16 M. Gómez

27 M. Moya

37 L. Delgadillo

30 A. Fariña

10 A. Gómez

25 A. Cervera

Coach · Eduardo Ledesma

Substitutes

8 · Á. Aguilera

11 · U. Coronel

9 · J. Sanguina

7 · F. Cáceres

17 · P. Delvalle

20 · E. Díaz

40 · Marcelo González

32 · Mario Ramírez

6 · C. Ramírez

24 · Ó. Romero

5 · C. Saiz

26 · A. Aguayo

Deportivo Recoleta

4-4-2

13 O. Toledo

14 C. Figueredo

5 N. Marotta

4 M. Pereira

18 P. Rios

17 W. Báez

38 J. Franco

21 C. Garay

31 M. Shupp

25 Renzo José Martino Campuzano

24 T. Vidal

Coach · J. González

Substitutes

3 · L. Cardozo

7 · R. Domínguez

6 · J. Espínola

36 · B. Ferreira

33 · A. González

1 · A. Marsegno

34 · Mathías Nicolás Masi Puschkarevich

15 · B. Medina

28 · L. Mendoza

23 · J. Núñez

11 · K. Parzajuk

10 · A. Silva

Our number · 2 de mayo winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market42%

Us46%

~~Market~~42%

We make 2 de Mayo a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 2 de Mayo v Deportivo Recoleta~~1.52 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 28 v 11~~4 v 11

~~The market · 2 de Mayo win~~42% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 2 de Mayo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
2 de Mayo win	46%	42%	+4
Draw	28%	28%	0
Deportivo Recoleta win	26%	29%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	45%	+3
Both teams to score	53%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	25%	+2
2 de Mayo or draw	74%	71%	+3
2 de Mayo clean sheet	34%	–	–
Deportivo Recoleta clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.6 7.0 4.4 1 10.1 13.1 6.6 2.4 2 8.4 9.1 5.0 3 4.3 4.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+2 de Mayo down, Deportivo Recoleta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 710 Division Profesional - Clausura matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Clausura matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.8% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.44 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

2 de Mayo at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Recoleta away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for 2 de Mayo, 1.09 for Deportivo Recoleta. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 23:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.44

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–2 DEM · DEP 5–0 DEM · DEM 0–1 DEP · DEM 0–2 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Profesional - Clausura this season · since 11 Sept

2 DE MAYO

LLDWWL0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–3

DEPORTIVO RECOLETA

LLDLLW1–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	15	+15	30
2	Libertad Asuncion	16	+7	30
3	Nacional Asuncion	15	+15	29
4	2 de Mayo	15	+1	28
5	Sportivo Trinidense	15	+11	27
6	Club Guarani	16	+4	25
7	Cerro Porteno	15	+4	21
8	Sportivo Ameliano	15	−1	19
9	Sportivo Luqueno	16	−13	16
10	Rubio NU	16	−12	13
11	Deportivo Recoleta	15	−12	11
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	15	−19	4